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La Liga Betting: Atletico need Champions' League spot to keep talented trio

Dan Fitch has an inkling that this could be a pivotal game for Madrid's bridesmaid. They need the platform that a place in next season's Champions' League would provide, otherwise their potent attacking options will be eyeing the exit.

When Kevin Keegan said last week that Newcastle had no chance of breaking into the top four and that English football was in danger of becoming boring, many thought him guilty of the same kind of defeatism that had previously seen him resign from the England manager job whilst sitting on the toilet.

In truth, Keegan was just being realistic, but he's wrong if he thinks that this situation only exists in England. If you look across Europe there is a certain familiarity to all the league tables. In Italy, the top four currently features Inter Milan, Roma, Juventus and AC Milan, which reads every bit as predictably as our own league.

In Holland, PSV have just won the title for the fourth year running. In Portugal, Porto have won three titles on the trot and in Scotland, the title will again go to either Rangers or Celtic. Your wonder why the French bother the formality of actually playing the games in their league, when you consider that Lyon have walked away with the last six titles.

But in Spanish football, there has been a greater breadth to the sides qualifying for the Champions League, even if there has been little variety to which side actually wins La Liga. Valencia have been regular qualifiers of late, but the mismanagement of the club has meant that it may be some seasons until they achieve this again. This means that there are effectively two spots up for grabs alongside the big two clubs and if any team is to challenge their dominance again, then they must regularly make one of these spots their own.

This weekend sees the sleeping giant that is Atletico Madrid on the cusp of Champions League football. They will be facing one of the last sides to regularly challenge the status quo in Spain in the shape of Deportivo La Coruna. If Atletico could qualify, it would allow them to retain the attacking talent of Aguero, Forlan and Maxi Rodriguez and make strides towards building a side that could challenge for a La Liga title, which was last won by Los Colchoneros back in 1996.

Atletico got nearer to qualification when they travelled to Espanyol on Thursday night, winning 2-0. Once again it was the strike duo of Forlan and Aguero who gave Atletico the win, as they notched a goal apiece. The away side looked very comfortable winners and pressured heavily for a third goal. The win gave Atletico a two point advantage over fifth placed Sevilla with just two games remaining.

Aguero has scored eighteen league goals this season, whilst Forlan has contributed fifteen. I often think of Atletico as being the Spurs of Spain, a side full of what-ifs, that rarely manage to live up to their potential. Like Spurs, they are also reliant on scoring lots of goals, as they are so poor in defence. Whilst hanging onto their existing attacking talent, this summer must see Atletico build on the defensive quality of the squad, including the purchase of a dominating ball winner in midfield. Valencia's David Albelda is likely to be available and would be an ideal signing.

Deportivo were regular Champions League qualifiers until the mid part of this decade and of course they won La Liga in 2000. That a small town club could flourish in such a way was a remarkable achievement, which is currently being repeated by the even smaller Villarreal. But for a club of such a size to maintain this success takes near perfect management from top to bottom. Depor failed to keep bringing the players through and have slumped in recent years.

Relegation looked possible earlier this season, but Depor have recently enjoyed a run of form that has taken them to the brink of Intertoto qualification. Deportivo have lost just three times in the last sixteen games, with six wins coming from the last seven games. They will provide a very tough test for Atletico, with qualification for the UEFA Cup still mathematically possible.

I therefore think that the price of [1.65] for an Atletico win is worth laying, with Deportivo [5.9] and the draw [4.2]. Atletico are always capable of leaking goals and laying this short price could well provide trading possibilities.