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Champions League

Inter Milan v Liverpool: Inter can still qualify despite two goal deficit

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Liverpool set for tough trip to Milan on Tuesday night. Mike Norman runs over the odds for the night's action...

How do you describe Liverpool Football Club these days? A bit like a dull girlfriend, who is miserable and boring when at home, but lights up when she is out shopping or on holiday. The Reds are similar under Rafa Benitez - quite disappointing domestically, but give them European competition and they are a different proposition altogether.

Granted, Liverpool are performing very well in the Premiership at the moment, but just like the dull girlfriend who buys you the latest X-Box 360 game in an attempt to make up for previous let-downs - it's all too late.

Liverpool go into Tuesday night's crucial Champions League second leg match against Inter Milan on the back of five successive wins, including a 2-0 victory in the first leg when they benefited from some strange refereeing decisions that saw Marco Materazzi red carded for two (supposed) bookable offences. But will a 2-0 lead be good enough against the Seria A runaway leaders? Personally I have my doubts, and I'd rather be a backer of Inter Milan at [4.3], than Liverpool at [1.3] to qualify for the quarter-final.

Liverpool's chances of qualifying are obvious - concede no more than one goal and they are through, or score one and afford themselves the luxury of being able to concede three and still qualify. The match odds suggest an Inter victory is on the cards at odds of [1.94], while Liverpool can be backed at [4.8] to emulate Arsenal's terrific victory in Milan just a week ago - the draw is available at [3.55].

So will Liverpool score? Inter have a terrific record at home this season, winning twelve of their fourteen league games (drew the other two), and winning all three of their home Champions League fixtures. They have conceded just eight Seria A goals on home soil, and I believe the [2.34] about a Milan clean sheet is tremendous value. Yes Fernando Torres is in terrific goal-scoring form for Liverpool, but while he is a wizard in front of goal, the likes of Dirk Kuyt and Ryan Babel (just seven league goals between them all season) remind me of a magician's assistant - they go to pieces when in the box.

Ok that might be a bit harsh, as like so many of Liverpool's players, Kuyt and Babel (eight CL goals between them in just nine games) seem more accustomed to European football than the high tempo Premiership. But defensively Liverpool are vulnerable. In the absence of Daniel Agger, first Sami Hyppia, and now Martin Skrtel, haven't convinced, while despite his class, Jamie Carragher is always likely to be shown a clean pair of heels from pacey attackers.

Roberto Mancini's star studded side haven't been at their best of late, failing to beat Sampdoria and Roma, and losing to both Liverpool and Napoli - though they got back on track at the weekend by cruising past Reggina with goals from Ibrahimovic and Burdisso. Inter have a wealth of talent and experience to call upon including the likes of Cambiasso, Zanetti, Vieira and Figo in midfield, meaning Gerrard and Mascherano will have to perform miraculously if Liverpool are to hold on to their healthy, but extremely dangerous lead.

I'm much undecided in the 'Over/Under 2.5 Goals' market so I will just refer you to the odds. 'Under 2.5' is available at [1.79] to back or [1.8] to lay, while 'Over 2.5' is currently trading at [2.24] to back or [2.26] to lay. The reason I'm undecided is because I actually fancy an Inter Milan victory by either 2-0 (available at [9.4]) or 3-0 ([17.5]).

I'm sure we are in for an entertaining game as I don't think Liverpool will come and defend what they've got, but unfortunately I think an early goal for Inter is on the cards (perhaps between 11 and 20 minutes at odds of [5.3]) and for that reason I will be backing 'Inter/Inter' at [3.15] in the 'Half-Time/Full-Time' market. As for a first goalscorer, the only man I'd be interested in is the brilliant Zlatan Ibrahimovic if I can get matched at odds of around [6.5].

I fear for Liverpool, but I would like nothing more than to be proved wrong and see them join Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United in the last eight? England to be the winning nation in this year's Champions League is looking more and more likely - the odds on offer are now just [1.64], with Spain next in at [4.6], followed by Italy at [7.2].