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Champions League

Champions League Betting: Stats suggest a lay of Man Utd and some goals

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Master of all things statistics, "Magical" Matthew Walton crunches the numbers to find the best value out there for Wednesday's Champions League final

The last game of the European season is upon us. Finally we land in Moscow for the Champions League Final between Chelsea and Manchester United.

A fascinating match for punters. Not just because it includes two English sides but because it brings with it so many related facts and figures. The managers know each other inside out, the players know each other inside out and we, as backers, know the form inside out ... or do we?

Here we aim to study the match in a little more detail. Ignore the heart and bet with the head. Look through the figures available to us, and there are many, and make some informed judgements (and bets) as a result of this knowledge.

The analysis will be two-fold in nature. Looking back at past meetings between these two sides (no fewer than 28 in the last 10 seasons) as well as considering previous Champions League finals. This gives us plenty of material to work with and the opportunity to draw some definite conclusions.

We're going to look at four specific Betfair markets - Match Odds, Correct Score, First Goal Odds and Over/Under 1.5 Goals - and we'll begin to do that with the aid of the table of information which you'll see below:

Match Odds

Given the historical head-to-heads of these two sides we see United with 65 wins from 150 matches (44%) as clear favourites. The draw (29%) and the Chelsea win (27%) lag quite some way behind.

However, over the last 10 seasons - surely a better yardstick - we see the draw with 11 of 28 (39%) leading the way, with a Chelsea win (36%) next best and the United win clearly the least favoured option (25%).

Based upon these statistics the United price of [2.64] looks probably the worst value of the lot with the Chelsea win [3.25] and the draw [3.15] much more attractive options.

Correct Score

Of the recent meetings, 14 of 28 matches (50%) have seen the classic 0-0, 1-1 or 1-0 either way result. Just 7 of 28 matches (25%) have seen either side win by more than a single goal.

The 1-1 scoreline, which has appeared in 5 of 28 matches (18%), and has also occurred twice in Chelsea's 12 European matches this season and 3 of United's 12 games, looks a live runner in this market at around [6.8] . And, after all, a tight game wouldn't be a great surprise.

First Goal Odds

Both sides have scored 19 goals in their 12 European matches this season, Chelsea have conceded 7 goals and United just 5. These figures would make both equally likely to bag the first goal in Moscow.

A telling statistic might be that Chelsea have scored first in 14 of the 28 meetings between these sides over the last 10 seasons (50%), United have done so in 10 games (36%) and there have been just 4 goalless draws (14%).

The perception of many backers with United's free-scoring style and Chelsea's generally 'less' free-scoring style would be that Fergie's men will score first - the facts suggest otherwise.

Given that premise, Didier Drogba with 6 of Chelsea's 12 European goals this season and Frank Lampard with 3 (free-kick and penalty taker) would look sensible options. For United, well, Ronaldo always has to top the list.

Over/Under 1.5 Goals

Just 7 of the last 28 meetings have witnessed less than 1.5 goals. At 25% that would make a low-scoring match around [4.0]!! It's much, much shorter than that and can't be value.

In Europe this season, Chelsea's matches have seen more than 1.5 goals on 9 of 12 occasions (75%) and United's figure is 5 of 12 (42%).

Put these statistics together and even at odds-on [1.61], the 'over' would appear a more likely outcome.

These initial comments are made on the basis of the team's previous meetings and their general play throughout the season. What about a preview of the match in light of recent Champions League finals, does this alter our opinion?

The table below provides the figures:

Match Odds

Little to go on here. Chelsea have no history and United's past successes are no real yardstick to the match. Hard to see this table altering our views of before.

Correct Score

The last 15 finals have seen several scorelines occur more than once (1-0, 1-1, 2-1 and 3-0). In light of previous comments, the 1-1 and 2-1 scores could provide a modicum of value. The 1-1 has already been noted at [6.8] but the 2-1 either way which is available in excess of [12.0] merits consideration.

First Goal Odds

Little to add here other than the lack of 0-0 scorelines, just the one since 1993, would suggest there will be goals! This market does deserve your closest attention.

Over/Under 1.5 Goals

Are finals tight, dull affairs? Not so it appears. 11 of the last 15 finals have seen more than 1.5 goals (73%) which would tie in very nicely with the earlier remarks. It does seem as though there will be goals in this match.

Overall, by cross-referencing the two sets of data there do appear to be several pointers for the Betfair markets. The statistics would suggest caution with regards to Manchester United, both scoring first and winning the game, that Chelsea may well provide the better value of the two sides and that goals do seem to be on the agenda.

Naturally, the match could pan out another way completely. United could win at a canter, it might be a dull 0-0 draw. However, using the information available (which is all we can do a backers) we know that in the long-run our betting will be more successful. These figures should give you a much better insight into the match and a better grasp of the markets.

Dos Vidanya!