Champions League / Ed Nicholson / 23 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ed Nicholson rates the likelihood of goals in two Champions League ties which feature English sides. Best Bet: 2pts Under 2.5 goals Inter v Man Utd @ [1.61].

Inter Milan v Manchester United

The 2008/9 version of Manchester United is built from the back forwards. They have built their initial success in 2008/9 on not conceding goals, both in the Premier League and in Europe.

No one conceded fewer goals in the Champions league group stage than Manchester United, while Inter only conceded seven times in their six matches in Group B.

None of Inter's three home group stage matches were high scoring affairs as they lost 0-1 to Panathinakos, won 1-0 against Anorthsis and recorded a 1-1 draw against Bremen.

United's three away games at the group stage yielded just four goals; a 0-0 at Villarreal was followed by a 1-1 at Celtic Park and finally a 3-0 thrashing of AaB Alborg.

Jose Mourinho, manager of Inter, has a phenomenal record when his sides play at home. He hasn't last a home fixture in 110 games, a record that goes back to his days when he managed Porto in 2002.

I doubt we'll see an open game here, and Inter probably won't score more than twice. They are more prolific away from home than in front of their own fans, scoring 25 of their 44 Serie A goals away from the San Siro.

Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 19 Champions League games, winning 11 of those contests.

Wayne Rooney's return to the team has come at the right time for the Reds as he is an important player for them when playing away from home in Europe. Of course he scores goals, but his hold up play and linking with the midfield is an important facet not always given the credit it deserves.

One of those players he supports is Cristiano Ronaldo whose 12 shots on target in the Champions League is more than any other player in the tournament.

United also create more opportunities than any team left in the competition. They have had 53 shots off target and 48 corners, while their discipline is very good - they have only been shown five yellow cards as a team throughout the competition so far - that's the lowest number of cards of any team left in the competition. But Nemanja Vidic misses the game following his red card in the Club World Cup Final.

Inter were knocked out at this stage of the competition last year by Liverpool who won the away leg 1-0 having taken the home fixture 2-0. But those goals in the first leg didn't come until the 85th and 90th minutes. A year prior to that Inter had again been knocked out of the cup at the first knock out stage when drawing 2-2 at home to Valencia - 0-0 draw in Spain wasn't enough.

Meanwhile, United not only won this competition last year but they reached the semis the year prior to that. However, they too have struggled at this stage in the past - they went out to Mourinho's Porto despite taking the lead in both legs back in 2004.

This game pits the seven point leaders of the Premier League against the nine points leaders of Serie A. United have key injury problems at centre back - and no doubt Mourinho will target this area. Psychologically, I feel than Mourinho will start from the premise that he must not lose this home game, while United would consider a draw a tremendous result. Even if they fall behind they won't go all out for an equalizer and a low scoring game is envisaged.

Rea Madrid v Liverpool

Rafa Benitez is a master at getting a result away from home in the Champions League, and many will have already marked this game down as an under 2.5 goal encounter.

But surprisingly, Liverpool have scored plenty of goals in this competition this season and are averaging 1.83 goals per game which makes them the sixth most affective side in front of goal this term. Real Madrid are averaging just 1.5 goals per game, but they are averaging a relatively high number of shots on target (SOTs) having averaged seven per game - that puts them in fifth place, while Liverpool languish in 18th place with an average of 4.83 SOTs per game.

Real Madrid scored nine times in Group H to finish runners up to Juventus, and we can expect to see them attack Liverpool in this first leg. Liverpool, for their part, have enjoyed many European nights by soaking up the pressure away from home and then counter attacking, and I feel this game will suit the pace of Fernando Torres. I can see goals here with Liverpool having a good chance of scoring. The over 2.5 option is a little too big at around 2.24.

Real Madrid failed to score at home to Juventus, but won 2-0 and 3-0 in their other two home group encounters and you would be surprised if they didn't breach the Reds defence at least once. Their offensive players remain in good form - as the 6-1 demolition at home against Real Betis on Saturday clearly demonstrates.

Last year Real Madrid got knocked out of the Champions League at this stage by Roma - 2-1 on each leg. The previous year they were also knocked out at this stage, winning the first leg 3-2 before losing 1-2 to Bayern Munich in the second, and in 2005/6 they were knocked out at this stage against Arsenal.

Liverpool went out to Benfica 3-0 (2-0 & 1-0) in 2006, having won the competition the year before. Two years ago they made it through to the final and last year the semi-final.

Real Madrid will be desperate to get past this stage of the Champions League as it has been such a stumbling block in recent seasons, which means they may be a little nervous. Liverpool know how to win two legged affairs in Europe. Unders should be favourites, but not as short as it is, while the overs option is a little too big and is a sporting selection.

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