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Gavin's 40.039/1 pick Amanda Anisimova has made the final!
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But five-time major winner Iga Swiatek has clear experience advantage
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Consider set betting and game handicap lines using Betfair Bet Builder
What a run Amanda Anisimova has given us this Wimbledon. The American was my headline 40.039/1 pick before a ball was struck, and has made it to a maiden major final claiming the scalp of world number one Aryna Sabalenka in the process.
Standing in her way however is a confident looking Iga Swiatek, who is looking for a sixth Grand Slam title, on her third different surface, and a first at Wimbledon. The Pole has been installed as a 4/91.44 favourite.
Swiatek thrashed Belinda Bencic for the loss of only two games in Thursday's semi-final, and appears to have mastered a surface that had previously looked beyond her.
Throughout this tournament Betfair has been running a generous Bet Builder promotion where if you build your own Bet Builder, stake £5 or more you earn a free £5 bet. In my preview below I suggest some trends that can help construct your own bet for the final.
Swiatek set to win sixth Slam
At the start of the tournament I wrote that Iga Swiatek was my favourite to come through a difficult fourth quarter. It was a brave pick considering she had former champion Elena Rybakina and recently crowned French Open winner Coco Gauff to contend with.
However, at an outright price of 10.09/1 on the Betfair Exchange there didn't appear great value in her price at that stage. After all, although it was possible to identify an improvement in the Pole's grass court game, you still need a significant price on a player that has often struggled at Wimbledon.
But Swiatek has answered those doubts and some.
Over the course of this tournament she has adapted her attacking ground game to the conditions, respecting the surface by adding patience and discipline to her approach. Swiatek also has clearly mastered moving on the turf, which had eluded her in previous editions.
Her performances have been consistently solid across the fortnight, and the one-sided mauling of Belinda Bencic in the semi-final suggests she is peaking at just the right time.
The five-time major winner has won every Grand Slam final she has contested, and this rich experience holds her in good stead against a first time finalist.
All very new for Anisimova
Not only is this the first appearance for Amanda Anisimova in a major final, it is also the first time she will have met Iga Swiatek in a tour level match. They have somehow avoided each other until now.
That worries me about Anisimova's chances as there is no similar player to Swiatek on tour, who plays with a relentless intensity and swings forehands like no other.
You can, however, find elements of the Anisimova prototype in Bencic, Liudmila Samsonova and Danielle Collins, all of whom have felt the wrath of Iga this tournament. Of course, I rate Anisimova's form and current ability higher than those three players but still I think there is enough evidence to suggest the match-up will likely favour Iga.
Swiatek is a notoriously quick starter in Grand Slam finals, using her intensity to good effect allowing her to settle and to unnerve her opponents. In all but her first major final, Swiatek has won the opening set by at least four games.
Anisimova's record in tour finals is also not enough to inspire confidence, winning three and losing three including the Queens Club final a couple of weeks ago.
I hope this will not be Anisimova's last experience of a Grand Slam final and she is able to kick on from this breakthrough major run to become a consistent threat at the big tournaments. She is not without a chance at the US Open, and will be in the mix of likely contenders.
However, for now it is difficult to see past Swiatek.
Wimbledon final Bet Builder trends
Swiatek to win the first set at 4/91.44, or to win in straight sets at 1/12.00 is worth considering as options for your Bet Builder.
The Pole has also been serving to a high standard and outperformed players reputed to be high level servers, notching more aces than her opponent in every match other than Collins who she was tied at two aces apiece.
Anisimova on the other hand has lost the ace battle to both Sabalenka and Linda Noskova. Swiatek's superior returning, and impressive serving form suggests her underdog pricing may be value in this one. Consider adding over 3.5 Swiatek Aces to your Bet Builders at 5/61.84.
Swiatek has won every Slam final she has contested by at least four games. Swiatek -3.5 games is 8/111.73.
The Pole has won all but one opening set in a Grand Slam final by a margin of four games or more. Iga to clear the 1.5 game handicap in set one is 4/71.57.
As much as I'd like Anisimova to win and will be cheering on the 40.039/1 ticket, there is a lot of evidence pointing to this being Iga's day and I see the value in her winning with a -1.5 set handicap at 11/102.11
Back Iga Swiatek to win -1.5 set handicap