US Open Day 7 Preview and Tips: Steady Nakashima can hang with Zverev at 6/4

• Draw has opened up for Zverev

• Nakashima is a steady eddy

• Back close first set at 6/4 and Zverev win in more than 3 sets at 6/5

Our outright pick Alexander Zverev must be licking his lips at how his draw has opened up.

After Novak Djokovic's early elimination from the draw at the hands of Alexei Popyrin - although truth be told that was in large part due to a lack of preparedness from the Olympic champion as anticipated in my pre-draw selection - the door is now ajar for Zverev to reach a second US Open final.

To get there the German must defeat Brandon Nakashima and then either Casper Ruud or Taylor Fritz before facing whoever emerges from a wide open but soft fourth quarter.

It won't be easy and the in-form Nakashima looks a tricky assignment, but Zverev should have enough to continue his progress.

Dips in Zverev's level

Although I believe Zverev should find the win I am not sure that he will win it easily based on his performance levels so far.

Zverev has come through each of his first three matches comfortably against Maximilian Marterer, OnlyFans star Alexandre Müller and Tomas Etcheverry. However, it would be a fair assessment that his form has wobbled during each match.

He dropped sets to both Marterer and Etcheverry, and Müller injured himself in set one of their encounter that jeapordised his chances but he had been competitive in spells.

It is an age old concern for Zverev who has a track record of scuppering his chances in Grand Slams by taking the circuitous route to the deciding matches.

That is a reflection of his game style which revolves around the consistency and quality of his serve, and risk-averse patterns of play from the baseline. It is a very effective tactic to grind out wins, but it does leave him open to dropping sets and playing longer matches.

In his run to this year's French Open final he dropped seven sets across seven matches, and nine in his semi-final run at the Australian Open. He wins matches but they are regularly complicated.

Nakashima a smooth operator

It is difficult to be excited by watching Brandon Nakashima. He is a business suit and a handshake type of player. A real Steady Eddy that is not blessed with a particularly great weapon but he does possess a useful even-headed temperament and can repeat his game over and over again.

His winning formula is in many ways similar to Zverev - serving and baseline steadiness. He is executing this game very well of late having beaten Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti in recent months.

Both of their previous matches have been tightly contested with Zverev edging ahead. They went to four sets in their meeting at the US Open in 2020 and played out a couple of tiebreaks when they met in Paris a few months back.

In these match-ups they were highly competitive trading backhands and serves, but it was Zverev's forehand that proved the difference. This wing is important for Zverev and its health is often demonstrated by his ease of victories. So far with the dropped sets this is not the optimum version of Zverev we are witnessing.

A serving angle and a competitive Zverev win

I expect that they will once again be closely matched and it would not surprise me for there to be at least one tiebreak in this match if both serve anywhere near their usual high standard.

A bet I like that would keep this onside is for there to be over 10.5 games played in set one, meaning any 7/5 or 7/6 scoreline would land. It would have bagged in both of their previous meetings. The price of 6/42.50 on over 10.5 games in set one is appealing.

With Nakashima playing at somewhere near his best level and Zverev oscillating from one set to the next, I also can see Nakashima scoring a set here along the way. A Zverev win and both players to win a set is 6/52.20.

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