Men's US Open Post-Draw Preview: Opportunity knocks for 17/2 Zverev and 14/1 Medvedev

• Sinner under suspicion

• Alcaraz and Djokovic ready to go?

• 14/115.00 Medvedev and 17/29.50 Zverev can take advantage

• Read Gavin's US Open Women's post-draw preview here

The build up to this US Open has been dominated by the news that world number one Jannik Sinner is under the spotlight for a doping violation.

The Italian was thought to have sinned having twice tested positive for the banned substance clostebol in March of this year. Although cleared of the charges, it is notable that the alleged offence took place shortly after a dominant spell on the courts in which he bagged numerous titles.

Although he has been allowed to play it is clear that Sinner is under the microscope and he has lengthened in the outright market from 13/53.60 to 7/24.50 despite scoring victory in Cincinnati.

Before this was known I did not fancy Sinner, and this info has only strengthened that perception. However, I also have doubts about the other leading candidates and I believe there could be opportunity for another player to emerge from the pack.

By breaking the draw down quarter by quarter maybe we can spot that man.

Sinner by name, sinner by nature?

Whether or not Sinner intentionally consumed the banned substance is the cause of great speculation. Several of his fellow professionals have taken to social media to share their opinion, and it is clear the Italian is the talk of the town albeit for the wrong reasons.

This is surely unhelpful for Sinner, who had been viewed as a golden boy of the sport. He might have a hard time restoring that reputation, and I wonder how this off-court issue will affect his on-court game.

Sinner has been by a considerable distance the player to beat on a hard court this season but there a couple of names in his quarter that are capable of upsetting him.

In the second round he will encounter the talented 19 year old Californian Alex Michelsen, who has a big game and is growing into life on tour with consistent recent showings.

He fell short against Sinner at Cincinnati, but he pushed him reasonably close and you would imagine this match will be scheduled on a big court, and almost certainly that the American will enjoy crowd support. It will be revealing how the Italian handles such a situation.

It is more likely later in the draw where we will see what Sinner is made of. My pre-draw outright Felix Auger-Aliassime has a tough first round draw against wonderkid Jakub Mensik, but should he survive that he is capable of turning up the brightness on the Sinner spotlight should they meet.

Likewise the ever dangerous Daniil Medvedev is lurking in this quarter. The Russian has been short of form of late, but there is no doubting what he is capable of on a hard court having made the final of the last two hard court Grand Slams and winning this tournament in 2021.

I wasn't keen on Medvedev before the draw but he has ample opportunity in the early rounds to build up a head of steam before having a crack at Sinner in a potential quarter-final.

At 14/115.00 Medvedev has been boosted from his pre-draw 12/113.00 price and I am happy to add him to my portfolio alongside Felix to take on the potentially vulnerable Sinner.

Is Alcaraz ready?

The outright favourite for this tournament is Carlos Alcaraz at 15/82.88.

It is easy to understand why the Spaniard has been positioned so strongly by bettors, after a near perfect summer on the natural surfaces. However, as phenomenal a talent as he is I am not expecting him to match those levels on a hard court so soon after such an intense recent effort.

Only once in the Open Era (since 1968) has a player been able to win the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open in the same season. That player was Rafael Nadal in 2010.

Not to diminish that incredible once in a 66 year event, but Alcaraz also ran deep at the Olympics only a few weeks ago which was not on the 2010 calendar. If Alcaraz were to sustain that level I would be amazed.

The signs don't look good. He was completely out of sorts when he took to court in Cincinnati with his footwork all over the place and his usually calm and happy demeanour souring with the uncharacteristic smashing of a racket in defeat to old stager Gael Monfils.

Should Alcaraz go on to win this tournament it would be incredibly impressive and he is no doubt capable of it but I'm not having it.

That said it is difficult to spot who will have the game to take out Alcaraz in the second quarter, as he has landed favourably in a draw lacking form or reputable players.

It will require an underperformance from Alcaraz, but potentially guys such as Denis Shapovalov, Jack Draper, Seb Korda or Alex de Minaur can find a formula to upset him.

Before a ball is struck is difficult to pinpoint which of those players can do the business.

Zverev has a chance

The big winner of the draw in my opinion is third seeded Alexander Zverev who has shortened from 12/113.00 to 17/29.50.

He is by far and a way the standout name in what is a soft third quarter avoiding form players or any real standout hard court talents.

The German has been Mr Consistent this season, winning five more matches than any other player (Sinner and Casper Ruud sit second on 44).

It is easy to see his formula of big serving and steadiness off the ground churning through a draw in which the aforementioned Ruud is the second highest seed. Although he was the 2022 finalist, it is fair to say that expectations for the Norwegian are low.

Ruud was on a hot patch of form back then that he has struggled to repeat on hard courts since, and he has been bothered by illness of late as shown in several disappointing performances.

Beyond Ruud the names are Alexander Bublik, Taylor Fritz, Ugo Humbert, Lorenzo Musetti and Holger Rune who all blow hot and cold and you'd expect to fall short of the high standard that Zverev will set.

At 17/29.50 I like Zverev's route through the draw and think he is capable of going all the way.

What to expect from Djokovic?

Since completing tennis by winning Olympic gold we have not seen Novak Djokovic take to court. We have however seen him partying and celebrating the coveted final accolade of what has been the perfect career.

From here on out it feels like Djokovic has a free hit, and will try to add any more major titles to his name. This would be the first season he has failed to win a Grand Slam title than 2017.

It is not unusual to turn up to a Grand Slam without any warm up events under his belt, and at 37 years old the less strain he puts on his energy reserves the better.

That said the most noticeable signs of Djokovic in decline have been at Grand Slam events played over five sets. His form can disappear out of nowhere, as has been the case for his storied rivals Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray who all have been quoted after matches as being dumbfounded at being unable to perform the tennis on court that they have imagined in their head, and could expect to produce in their pomp.

Djokovic has proven this season that he can coast through draws on quite a low gear and it will still take a strong player to see him off.

Luckily he should not encounter too much trouble in the early rounds, but his fourth round meeting with the winner of the Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe contest could be interesting.

Both Americans have serious game, with Shelton in particular viewed by many commentators as likely to win Grand Slams in the future. Although they both possess bags of talent and firepower, knowing if they'll turn up is a big question that will only be answered on the day.

The biggest seeded opponent in Djokovic's quarter is the volatile Andrey Rublev. The Russian has revealed long-running mental health struggles and it has been difficult to watch him play in recent months as he has been prone to self-sabotage and extreme temper tantrums on court.

Rublev is capable of upsetting Djokovic, but he will need to channel his best self to do so.

Despite this favourable draw I fancy it is in the latter rounds that Djokovic will likely be found out. 23/103.30 is perillously short on the great Serbian.

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