ATP Hamburg Tips: Can Molcan handle the heat and Carreno Busta?

Sean Calvert
20 July 2022

Carreno Busta looks a short price against Molcan in Hamburg

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Round two of the Hamburg European Open and Swiss Open Gstaad gets underway on Wednesday and after landing a trio of big-priced winners on Tuesday, Sean Calvert returns with more picks...

"Carreno Busta's main level clay data for the last year can't match that of Molcan..."

It was a great day for our bets on Tuesday and almost a clean sweep.

Bernabe Zapata Miralles failed to serve out the match against Jaume Munar at 5-3 in the third, but after that the luck turned: Filip Krajinovic saved match points to win in a final set tie break at 2.809/5 and both of my bets won (one with a big slice of fortune) at 3.02/1 and 10.519/2 in the Stricker v Huesler match in Gstaad.

The weather is set to turn on Wednesday and that could mean we have to be a little careful with our bets at the Hamburg European Open and the EFG Swiss Open Gstaad.

In Hamburg it's set to be scorching at 38C in the shade, which will mean brutal on court temperatures in the 40s for the players (unless the roof is used, and they only have a roof on one court).

In Hamburg it's set to be scorching at 38C in the shade, which will mean brutal on court temperatures in the 40s for the players

Over in the Swiss Alps in Gstaad they've got the opposite problem, with thunderstorms forecast and up to 10mm of rain is expected, but it's quite possible that the storms may miss the venue.

Top seed Casper Ruud begins the defence of his Gstaad title on Wednesday and I doubt he'll have an easy time of it against the powerful Jiri Lehecka.

The young Czech is at the peak of his career right now as far as rankings are concerned (65 in the world) and he's a player that has seemed to enjoy the big occasion versus the highly ranked players.

So far he's played four matches versus top-12 ranked opponents and his record is: one win (beat Shapovalov) and three final set defeats (versus Norrie, Rublev and Tsitsipas), so he's taken at least a set each time.

is at the peak of his career right now as far as rankings are concerned and he's a player that has seemed to enjoy the big occasion versus the highly ranked players

And he has a chance of doing so again versus Ruud, who's coming from the very slow sea level conditions in Bastad to over 1,000m of altitude in Gstaad.

Last year (when Ruud had even less time to adapt to conditions) Ruud edged past Dennis Novak 6-4, 7-6 in round one of Gstaad and was then taken to a decider by Benoit Paire, so I think Ruud will do well to win this one easily.

Lehecka's power at this altitude and the fact that he's had a match to adapt (beat Etcheverry easily in round one) and he clearly relishes the bigger matches leads me to lay Ruud to win this match 2-0 at 1.625/8 for one point.

We were unlucky with Bernabe Zapata Miralles on Tuesday, when he served for the match against Jaume Munar and then lost the next four games and the match.

Now Munar faces an opponent with a totally different style of play in Alexander Ritschard, who was refreshingly honest in his assessment of his game after beating Joao Sousa in round one:

"Honestly, I just don't like to run," he said. "The sooner I can end the point the better. That's what I build my game after. The goal was to play my game, be aggressive, find the net."

In this Gstaad altitude it might work well against Munar. Clearly Ritschard won't want to get into many long rallies with Munar, but with thunderstorms forecast the conditions may well get slower, which would heavily favour Munar.

Indeed, the likelihood of conditions changing means that I won't take on much today in Gstaad and Hamburg.

The one bet I will take just for half a point is to back Alex Molcan to beat Pablo Carreno Busta, who's been a tough player to call lately.

PCB was excellent against the fading Diego Schwartzman in Bastad (and for much of his win over Albert Ramos) but then failed against Francisco Cerundolo and his main level clay data for the last year can't match that of Molcan.

PCB's combined service points won/return points won total is 101.7, while Molcan is some way better on 104.2.

Molcan also leads in hold/break totals on 106.4 compared to 103.8 for PCB and the Slovak has won far more of his matches (11 from 15) as well, so the numbers are with Molcan here.

And the four losses have come against decent opposition, too: Casper Ruud, Novak Djokovic, Cam Norrie and David Goffin, so I'm happy to side with Molcan as underdog here at 2.608/5 and hope he handles the heat better than Carreno Busta.