ATP Hamburg Tips: Krajinovic decent value to upset Baez

Sean Calvert
19 July 2022

Filip Krajinovic has a great record in Hamburg

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Round one of the Swiss Open Gstaad and the Hamburg European Open continues on Tuesday and Sean Calvert is back with more value bets...

"Krajinovic boasts a 10-2 win/loss record in all completed matches in Hamburg, with defeats coming against Alexander Zverev and Pablo Carreno Busta..."

The week in Hamburg and Gstaad got off to a decent start when my one small bet on Monday landed, as Jan-Lennard Struff and Karen Khachanov went to three sets.

We're set for hot sunny days at both of this week's ATP Tour events on Tuesday, with the Hamburg European Open set to be 34C in the shade and the Swiss Open Gstaad not too far behind at 29C.

Starting in Hamburg and it's a very quick turnaround for Bastad finalists Sebastian Baez and Francisco Cerundolo on Tuesday.

I wouldn't be backing either at odds-on today in what are likely to be some very hot conditions (maybe they'll use the roof if it gets incredibly hot) and therefore pretty quick conditions.

That's a big difference from the slow clay of Bastad and I'm happy to take on Baez today after his really disappointing (from his point of view) display in the final, where he lost as favourite to his countryman.

It could be the case that Baez shrugs that off and if he does that I'll be impressed, but Filip Krajinovic looks worth backing at a tempting 2.8815/8.

Krajinovic made the final in Hamburg last year when it was also pretty hot and I think he'll enjoy the conditions more than Baez, who for me is best suited to the slower clay conditions.

Indeed, Krajinovic boasts a 10-2 win/loss record in all completed matches in Hamburg, with defeats coming against Alexander Zverev and Pablo Carreno Busta.

The Serb's main draw stats in Hamburg are impressive: 78% holds/35% breaks = 113 total. Combined service points won/return points won total = 108.

Those are some excellent stats and more than good enough for me to take a chance on him against what may be a slightly deflated Baez in quick conditions.

Tie breaks likely in all-Swiss clash

In Gstaad, doubles partners and main draw singles wild cards Dominic Stephan Stricker and Marc-Andrea Huesler clash in round one, with few breaks of serve expected.

Stricker has struggled to break serve at main level, with five of his nine such career matches featuring at least one tie break and six of his nine opening sets going to at least 12 games.

And facing an attacking, net-rushing opponent in Huesler in quick conditions at altitude it suggests to me that a tie break or two is likely.

Over 10.5 games in set one is a tasty 3.02/1 and I also like over 1.5 tie breaks here at a big 10.519/2.

Munar priced up too short again

The other price I quite like in Gstaad is the 2.6213/8 about Bernabe Zapata Miralles to beat Jaume Munar.

The one-year main level clay stats indicate only a tiny lead for Munar and certainly not one that would make him a 1.594/7 chance to win this match and it seems like the layers are going with the head-to-head here.

Munar leads that 3-1, but they were played between three and six years ago and not relevant to today's match.

More relevant is Munar often being much too short for no apparent reason - he was 1.171/6 last week in Bastad qualies against Pedro Sousa and lost in straight sets and he's short again here.

Munar has done nothing of any note in Gstaad and if we take his main level record in Gstaad, Cordoba, Santiago, Madrid, Sao Paulo, Marrakech and Kitzbuhel into account he's only 14-16 win/loss at those altitude events.

That's not a great record for a man who usually starts matches shorter than his ability and data warrants and I don't mind taking Zapata Miralles here for half a point.

Also in Gstaad I'm not seeing a shred of value on Dominic Thiem, who was priced up as a 2.526/4 underdog to beat clay-averse Emil Ruusuvuori last week in Bastad, but is now a 1.501/2 favourite to beat last year's Gstaad finalist Hugo Gaston.

That's on the back of one decent match against a rusty Roberto Bautista Agut and an okay (should really have lost in straight sets) showing in defeat versus Sebastian Baez.

The layers are assuming that Thiem is on his way back to the top after his injury struggles, but that price is mighty short if the unpredictable Gaston is on one of his good days.

Gaston has let me down once too often though and so I'll take one point on Krajinovic, half a point each on the two bets in the Stricker match and half a point on Zapata Miralles on Tuesday.