ATP Tour Finals Day Three Tips: Auger-Aliassime to continue Nadal's poor run

• Nadal and Auger-Aliassime in must-win clash
• Doubts around the King of Clay
• Fritz favourite over Ruud to go two from two
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Contrasting opening day defeats for duo

With both having lost their opening round robin match, Rafa Nadal and Felix Auger-Aliassime know that defeat in their clash on Tuesday afternoon will almost certainly end their chances of qualifying for the knockout stages.

Their defeats were contrasting. Auger-Aliassime pipped by Casper Ruud in a battle featuring just one break point, while Nadal's famed return didn't get going, failing to even create a solitary break point chance against Taylor Fritz.

Auger-Aliassime improvement enough to tempt

The markets have reacted to Nadal fitness and form problems by pricing up the number one seed as the 2.447/5 underdog at the time of writing.

The duo have never met away from clay, and Nadal edged a 3-2 thriller at Roland Garros earlier this season on his beloved surface.

Auger-Aliassime's improvement since that match has been immense. For a long period of time I considered him over-rated. But this has changed with stunning indoor data in particular, running at just shy of 110% combined service/return points won on the surface this year.

Nadal has rarely played indoors in recent years and, when he has, comes nowhere near that level.

Given this, and the fitness debate too, I'm happy to side with Auger-Aliassime as the favourite here at 1.695/7.

Fritz's return game holds the key

In the evening, the two winners from Sunday face off with Fritz a slightly bigger market favourite at 1.814/5. That looks about right to me given his greater indoor activity and pretty assured performance against Nadal.

Certainly, historical data suggests the American will be more likely to create chances on return, with better return points won and opposition break percentages. This dynamic was in evidence several days ago when Fritz created nine chances in four return games against Nadal, while Ruud converted the only chance he created against Auger-Aliassime.

This looks to be the recipe for Ruud if he is going to win this - serve well and look to win key points in a high variance match. I'm fine with the market line here, and do make Fritz the favourite to go two from two.