Who will win US Election 2024? Biden favourite despite problems at home and abroad

Joe Biden is enduring the most difficult few weeks of his presidency with the delta variant of Covid-19 spreading in the US and his administration under fire for the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.

The fall out from the latter has been catastrophic, with the Taliban deposing the elected government and retaking power in Afghanistan. Commentators have called it "humiliating" for the US and compared it to their retreat from Vietnam in 1973.

The former threatens to cause more misery for Americans, who thought the pandemic was behind them, and damage Biden's credibility at home.

And yet, on the Exchange, Biden is still the favourite to be re-elected when Americans go to the polls in 2024.

Biden is 4.47/2 to win the next presidential election while his vice president Kamala Harris is 7.413/2.

Biden's honeymoon is over

With his ambitious spending plans, and the successful roll out of the coronavirus vaccines, Biden made a strong start to his tenure in the White House.

His critics on the right were never far away, though, and they have been quick to exploit his problems of late. This week the Telegraph claimed: "The Afghan debacle will destroy the Biden presidency."

The US's withdrawal from Afghanistan was criticised by MPs on both sides of the UK parliament when they debated it this week.

All of this comes with the caveat that it was Biden's predecessor, Donald Trump, who made the decision to withdraw. But it happened on Biden's watch and that is often all that matters.

Trump is expected to run in '24 and is favourite to win the Republican nomination. He's 3.4549/20 while Nikki Haley 9.08/1 is his nearest rival in the market.

That said, while many bettors have put money on a Biden v Trump rematch in three years, there is no guarantee that either man will run.

First up, will be mid-term elections next year when Republicans will look to regain control of the Senate and hamper Biden in the remainder of his first term.

Time to turn his presidency around

There was speculation even before Biden became president that, like Lyndon Johnson in the 1960s, he would not seek a second term. He'll be 81 at the next US election. Will he really want to subject himself to a second gruelling campaign?

If not then Kamala Harris would be the obvious candidate and, at 3.39/4, she's marginally longer than Biden 3.185/40 in the Democratic nominee betting.

The good news for Biden backers is that there's a long way to go.

He has time to turn it around. The wisdom that comes with age means he won't panic and he showed in the 2020 Democratic primaries that he's up for a comeback.

Remember, he was backed at 99/1 before he brought his campaign back from the brink, won the nomination and went on to take the White House.