US Election Swing States: Spotlight on Georgia with Republicans 4/7 to win the state

• The so-called "Peach State" was won by Joe Biden, but Harris' chances are not so peachy

• Republicans are 4/71.57 favourites to win this key swing state

• It's a reliably Republican state and Democrats are faring second-worse of the seven swing states in the betting odds

• Check out our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts

Listen to Politics...Only Bettor US election special with Adam Boulton

Swing States key to outcome of US Election

Georgia was the only state in the so-called "Deep South" carried by President Joe Biden in the 2020 election, and for that reason became a flashpoint in Donald Trump's attempts to overturn the results of the Presidential election.

A phone-call between Trump and the Georgia Secretary of State - an official responsible for supervising elections in the state - became a smoking gun in the arguments to relitigate the results of that election.

In the phone-call, he asked the Secretary of State to "find" 11,780 more votes, in order that he could win the state.

Every state will count in this incredibly tight election, which has already seen over £77 million wagered on the Presidential election winner market. Harris is currently leading in the odds at evens, or 1/12.00 - but with Trump snapping at her heels at 21/202.05.

Swing states are battleground states that could vote either Democrat or Republican on election day. Because of the electoral college system, winning a state that was previously a toss-up is a huge win for either candidate on election night. These states have small vote margins and a history of voting for Presidents from both parties.

States that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but had previously voted Trump, are key swing states in this election - as are states that were won by less than 3%. For this election, most pollsters and political analysts judge the following seven states to be critical: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So to kick off the final sprint to election day, here's our spotlight on another one of these states - Georgia. You can see our Arizona spotlight from last week here.

History

The so-called "Peach State" has been a reliably Republican state in recent decades.

In every election between 1992 and 2020, Georgia voted heavily Republican, similar to many other states in the South. In 2020, Joe Biden carried the state, by only 0.23% of the vote. This was the first time it had voted Democrat in 28 years.

But both in 1992 and 2020, the result was incredibly tight.

The state had never voted Republican until 1964. Yet since then the Republican party has had an iron grip on the state, particularly in Presidential elections.

How are the campaigns faring so far?

Of the seven key swing states, the Democrats faring second-worst in the betting markets in Georgia.

At the moment, the Democrats are at 13/82.63 to carry Georgia, giving them a 38% chance of winning.

The Republicans are well ahead at 4/71.57, or a 64% chance.

An emerging swing state

At the end of August, Harris went on the offensive in Georgia, as the Democrats began the battle to keep the state.

Before he dropped out of the race, Biden was looking weaker in the state, as Democrats were losing support with Black and Hispanic voters. It seems Harris is now making inroads with those demographics - but with such tight margins, it's all to play for.

Eight of the last twelve winners of Georgia in the Presidential Election also won the Presidency.

On the Betfair Exchange, the punters are reflecting the state's history recent Republican history.

Polling vs odds

Trump has made a point of appearing multiple times in Georgia since Hurricane Helene flew through the state, leaving devastation in its path.

This stands to reason - as POLITICO notes, the storm hit Trump strongholds in both Georgia and North Carolina - both swing states which could win the election for either candidate.

Yet according to FiveThirtyEight, a respected polling aggregator who produce average of all respectable polls on the election, Kamala Harris may be losing ground in some of these key states, including in Georgia, where she has lost an advantage in recent polls.

While Harris had a small lead of 0.4% in Georgia at the start of September, Trump now leads in Georgia by 1.1%. These may seem like small margins, but in states like these, every vote truly does matter.

The betting odds in Georgia do reflect this.

While it's been a tight race throughout according to punters, it does seem the odds for the Republicans are slowly shortening, reaffirming the assumption that this state will be carried by Trump in one month's time.

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