US Election Swing States: Spotlight on Arizona with Republicans 1/2 to take state

• Arizona a key target for Harris campaign

• Republicans 1/21.50 favourite to win key swing state

• Arizona odds longest of all swing states for Democrats

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Swing States key to outocme of US Election

As the Kamala Harris team looks forward to November's election, one state that will be squarely in her sights is Arizona.

Every state will count in this incredibly tight election, which has already seen just shy of £75 million wagered on the US Presidential Election Winner market. Harris is currently leading in the odds at 20/211.95.

Swing states are battleground states that could vote either Democrat or Republican on election day. Because of the electoral college system, winning a state that was previously a toss-up is a huge win for either candidate on election night. These states have small vote margins and a history of voting for Presidents from both parties.

States that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but had previously voted Trump, are key swing states in this election - as are states that were won by less than 3%. For this election, most pollsters and political analysts judge the following seven states to be critical: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So to kick off the final sprint to election day, here's our spotlight on the first of these states - Arizona.

History

President Joe Biden won Arizona by a slim margin of 0.3% in 2020. Yet the so-called Grand Canyon State has not been too kind to Democratic candidates in the past.

Apart from Biden 2020, since 1948 only one Democratic presidential candidate has ever carried the state - Bill Clinton back in 1996. He carried the state with an incredible 2.2% margin over then-Senator Bob Dole.

In fact, there are a handful of states that last voted Democrat in the 1996 election almost 30 years ago - Kentucky, Louisiana, West Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee.

While this may make Arizona a key target for the Harris campaign, it holds a huge significance for the Republicans. No Republican has won the Presidency without the help of Arizona since it gained statehood in 1912.

How are the campaigns faring so far?

Of the seven key swing states, the Democrats are furthest away from success in Arizona, with odds of 7/42.75.

Changing face of America

Arizona is in many ways emblematic of the changing face of America.

Bordering Mexico, the state has become a flashpoint for debates on immigration in recent years. Donald Trump visited the "border wall" in the state at the end of August, and it seems that Arizonans are more likely to trust Trump to tackle immigration than Harris.

The state's demographics have been changing in recent years, too.

In Maricopa County - home to over 60% of Arizona's population - almost 30% of people are Latino or Hispanic. This is a key voter demographic that the Harris campaign will want to win over - and where Harris currently narrowly leads Trump.

Arizona has been the focal point of not just one, but two hot-button issues in this election, as abortion access has come under the microscope in recent years.

A 1864 law banning abortion from the moment of conception, with no exceptions, was repealed earlier this year, the culmination of a bitter row between state Republicans and Democrats. There's no doubt that this issue will be top of mind for many female voters as they go to the polls, with the option of electing their first female President.

Polling vs odds

The highly-regarded Emerson College poll a few days ago showed Harris and Trump neck and neck in most swing state seats. Trump was found ahead of Harris in Arizona by 49% to Harris' 48%.

FiveThirtyEight's polling average also shows an incredibly tight race - with Trump at 47.5% - 0.6% ahead of Harris.

The polling is showing a much tighter race than might be expected from the odds.

At odds of 1/21.50, the Republicans are favourites to win Arizona. They are currently far ahead of the Democrats in the betting markets, who trail at 7/42.75 or 36% chance - the longest odds in any of the seven key swing states.

Odds of 1/21.50 imply a near 67% chance of winning.

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