51st State: Betfair survey shows 1 in 5 Brits would vote Trump

• Betfair's 51st State survey shows how UK would vote in the US election

• 60% of Brits favour Harris but support for Trump in UK has doubled since 2020

• Is Trump enjoying UK youthquake? 32% of 16-24s back him

• Follow our 2024 US Election live blog

• See US election odds as you've never seen them before

As Brits look across the pond and wonder if Americans will elect Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the US presidential election on 5 November, Betfair have teamed up with YouGov to ask people in the UK who they would vote for if given the opportunity.

The results of the survey, in which more than 2,000 people from the across the UK took part, makes for fascinating reading, as the race for the White House hots up.

The Betfair Exchange US election markets continue to attract attention from people who are desperate to know who will win the next US election.

That is understandable as the Betfair Exchange has correctly predicted the last 22 of 24 major world elections and will be a key predictor for next month's event.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom, said: "With four days to go, it's clear who Brits would vote for if given the choice in the US Election.

"While one in five Brits (22%) would vote for Donald Trump - up from only 12% in 2020 - a clear majority would pick Kamala Harris. The Vice-President wins the support of 60% of Brits according to a new Betfair poll by YouGov.

"Yet in a new turn of events, a third (32%) of young adults aged 18-24 say they would back Trump - more than any other age group. London is the region with the highest percentage of people saying they would vote for Trump, with almost a third (31%) of people backing him.

"While Harris is sitting pretty in the polls, the betting markets paint a different story. On the Betfair Exchange, Harris is a distant 8/52.60 to win the presidency, giving her around a 37% chance of winning.

"Trump on the other hand is the big favourite at 5/81.62, and has been ahead of Harris with the punters since early October. That gives him a 63% chance of winning."

Get a full run down of the survey result below.

Harris wins easily with Brits

If it were up to British voters, Kamala Harris would win the US election by a landslide.

The vast majority of Brits (60%) would vote for Harris, which is substantially more than the 47% who said they would vote for Joe Biden back in 2020.

Her popularity with Brits reflects the way Harris has grabbed the momentum since she replaced Biden as the Democratic Party candidate for president in the summer.

She flipped the odds to become the favourite to win the election during her 10 September TV debate against Trump which Harris was widely judged to have won comfortably.

UK warming to Trump

More surprising perhaps is that Trump's popularity is on the increase in the UK, according to the Betfair survey.

One in five Brits (22%) said they would vote for Trump - up from 12% when Betfair asked the same question before the last US election four years ago - and the breakdown of to whom he appeals makes for fascinating reading.

Trump's popularity peaks with young Brits

Those aged 18-24 were most likely to back Trump if given a vote, with 32% saying they would choose the former president, which has almost tripled since the last election (11%).

And London is where he is most popular

When it comes to UK regions, London is the one with the highest percentage of people who would vote for Trump, with almost a third (31%) in the capital saying they would back him. That's up from 12% four years ago.

Even Tories favour Harris!

It is less surprising to see that 60% of Brits who voted Reform UK in the 2024 General Election would vote for Trump.

Of those who expressed a preference for Harris, support in the UK peaks at 84% amongst Liberal Democrat and Green Party voters. But 79% of those who voted Labour would choose Harris and even among Tories the figure is 54%.

Trump won the White House in 2016 - the same year Brits voted for Brexit - and more than a third of people who voted to leave in Britain's in-out referendum eight years ago said they would back Trump. Less than one in 10 remainers said the same.

Finally, the survey also showed that people in the UK would overwhelmingly oppose joining the US as the 51st state (80%), with only 10% open to pledging allegiance to the American flag.

Now read Betfair US election live blog for the latest betting news