US Election: How the race stands for Harris and Trump in all seven swing states

• Swing state odds with three weeks to go

• Trump targetting upsets in Michigan and Nevada

• Candidates almost level in Pennsylvania

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US election swing states - Betfair Exchange odds

Donald Trump 1.845/6 has pulled away from Kamala Harris 2.226/5 in the past week to become the favourite to win the US election on 5 November.

With three weeks of the campaigning, however, the polls remain tight and the winner likely to be decided in seven swing states. This is due to the US electoral college system and the way it allocates votes to each state. It will be a huge shock if the vast majority of states do not vote as expected but the below seven all have an element of doubt and both parties are in with a chance of winning.

Neither candidate can rest on their laurels anywhere. So what is the state of play in those seven states? Here's a quick guide to the Betfair Exchange odds in them all.

Arizona (11 electoral college votes)

Immigration is the big issue down in Arizona, on the Mexican border, where Donald Trump's tough talk has pushed the Democrats to the right on the issue. At the moment, Trump's uncompromising rhetoric appears to be working here and the Republicans are 1.422/5 (70% chance) to win.

Four years ago, Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate this century to carry Arizona. At 3.3512/5 (30%), however, Harris has work to do if she is to emulate her boss and keep it blue in 2024.

Georgia (16)

At the last election, Georgia saw the closest state race as Biden beat Trump by 0.23% to become the first Democrat to win there since 1992. Trump, who won there in 2016, is desperate to win it back and the Betfair Exchange odds indicate that he will do so. The Republicans are 1.574/7 (64%) to win the Peach State while the Democrats are 2.747/4 (36%).

Trump is currently fighting state criminal charges of conspiring to overturn that defeat in Georgia but that appears to only have hardened Republican resolve in Georgia. Ballots here will be counted by hand, on election night and afterwards, so there may be delay and confusion there again.

Michigan (15)

Trump won the state by just 10,704 votes in 2016 and lost it by a narrow margin to Biden four years later. Now the former-president believes that waning enthuisam for Harris will give him a shot at winning the Great Lakes state in 2024. Polls have sent mixed messages recently, with some suggesting the vice president was struggling in Michigan.

Tim Walz has been campaigning in Detroit recently, in a bid to get the union vote behind Harris, while the vice president will go there this week to appeal to black voters who she considers crucial to her chances of winning Michigan. As it stands, the Democrats are 1.84/5 (55.6%) to win but the Republicans are only 2.26/5 (45.5%) outsiders, so it could be tight here.

Nevada (6)

Another one which the Democrats would have expected to win but which may be too close for comfort with three weeks to go. Nevada has not voted Republican since George W. Bush won his second term in 2004 but Trump is hopeful of making a breakthrough. With the Democrats 1.824/5 and the Republicans 2.26/5, the Exchange odds indicate he is in with a 45.5% chance. That does not look insurmountable three weeks out.

There is a high unemployment rate in the state and reports have said that Las Vegas's service workers, who are fed up of the high cost of living, may turn to the former-president. Both candidates are vying to win the state's sizeable Latino population - a Demographic that Harris is reportedly struggling to reach.

North Carolina (16)

For almost half-a-century, only one Democratic presidential candidate has won North Carolina and that was Barack Obama in 2008. Back then he was untouchable and the Democrats would give anything to have a candidate with his magnetism now. As it stands, they do not and Trump, who has won here at the past two US elections, is 1.635/8 (61.3%) to it again.

At 2.568/5 (39.1%), Harris has reasons to believe that an upset could still be on. Trump only won by 70,000 votes last time, which is a small margin in US politics. She was in the state at the weekend for the second time since Hurricane Helene tore through NC. Trump, meanwhile, criticised her response to the disaster.

Pennsylvania (19)

This is the big one. Both candidates agree that, if they can win the Keystone State, they will probably win the presidency. Trump has said so publicly as he eyes the 19 electoral college votes - more than any other state - that will go to the victor here. He won it in 2016, then lost it to Biden, and it has a habit of picking the winner at US presidential elections.

The Democrats were favourites here for weeks but then the Republicans flipped the odds to take the lead. The state of play now? The Republicans are 1.991/1 and the Democrats 2.01/1 on the Betfair Exchange which is basically a 50/50 game.

Wisconsin (10)

Harris sees her path to White House including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But here is another part of the Blue wall of Rust belt battlegrounds that is probably closer than she would like it to be at this stage of the race.

The Democrats 1.8810/11 (53.2%) are the favourites but at 2.1211/10 (47.2%) the Republicans will believe The Badger State is within their grasp. Only one Republican presidential candidate has carried Wisconsin in the past 40 years but it was you know who in 2016.

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