US Election Betting Trends: Debate could change everything for Harris and Trump

• Stakes could not be higher for Harris and Trump before debate

• Could we seen another decisive debate?

• Get the full betting story of Biden's disaster last time

• Get a completely free US election bet on the Betfair Exchange

• Get the latest data including current prices and volume of bets in our daily update

Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris in the election winner market on the Betfair Exchange in recent days but, with just under two months to go, the race for the White House still looks too close to call.

Tonight Trump and Harris meet for their first and potentially last TV debate and it could prove to be a decisive moment in the election.

The stakes could not be higher and a poor performance could spell the end for either candidate.

How Biden's chances tanked after the first debate

If proof were need of how important the debates van be then we need only look to the last one in which Joe Biden's political career collided with reality.

For the past four years there had been speculation that Biden would not seek a second term as US president, due to his age. But the president insisted he wanted four more years in office and went into the debate on 27 June keen to show he was up to the job.

Unfortunately, that was not how it turned out. Trump did not so much win the debate as watch his opponent implode as time caught up with Biden and he struggled to remember facts and articulate his arguments.

Biden's demise in Betfair Exchange US election odds

On the day of the debate, Biden was 2/13.00 (a 33% chance) on the Betfair Exchange to win the election. Trump was 4/51.80 (a 56%) chance. Trump was already the favourite but what happened to the odds after the debate shows just how damaging Biden's performance was for his presidency.

On June 28, the morning after the debate, Biden drifted to 9/25.50 (18%) while Trump's odds reached what was then their record shortest price at 5/71.71 (58%) - this despite the fact he had been convicted at his hush money trial the previous month.

Just under a month after the debate, on 21 July, Biden bowed to immense pressure from American liberals ranging from George Clooney to Nancy Pelosi and announced that he was abandoning his candidacy. He was the first American president not to seek a second term since Lyndon Johnson in 1968.

Biden endorsed Harris and she hit the campaign trail running, closing on Trump in the betting and setting up what could be one of the closest US elections.

The first debate of the 2024 US election was one of the most significant of all time and in the early hours of Wednesday morning in the UK, we will find out what the second means for Harris and Trump.

We will have all the latest betting news in the build-up and in the aftermath on our live US election blog.

Now read US Election TV Debate Preview: This is a great opportunity for Harris to define herself