US Election Bet of the Day: Why you should back Joe Biden to be next president

Twenty days out from arguably the most significant election in living memory, we're starting the countdown with this new series. I'll be recommending one bet from our wide array of markets for every day until November 3rd. Starting with the obvious.

Back Joe Biden at 1.511/2 for Next President

Thanks to another bizarre gamble on Trump, Biden's odds are even more wrongly inflated than previously. I've argued for years that Trump's chance of re-election were hugely overstated and would price him at 6.05/1, not 3.02/1.

Why? Well, if you're backing Trump you are in fact betting on the biggest polling disaster of all-time, by a country mile. Biden's average lead is 10.6% and he's rated 87% likely by Fivethirtyeight's relatively conservative prediction model.

Given the numbers, in any other election in any other country with any other candidate than Trump on the ticket, Biden would be nothing like these odds.

US opinion was polarised and entrenched *before* Trump arrived on the scene. This most 'Marmite' of characters has accelerated the trend. The number of genuinely persuadable voters is miniscule. Think logically - how many people does one ever meet who are neutral about Trump?

He got incredibly lucky in 2016. An opponent in Clinton whom, unlike Biden, also had negative approvals, resulted in a much higher third-party performance than usual. That enabled Trump to win the electoral college by a wafer-thin 77K votes across three states, on a 46.1% share that would normally be well short.

There is no suggestion of a repeat. Biden is well ahead in that critical trio of states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. His chance according to Fivethirtyeight is, respectively, 91%, 87% and 88%.

Note, prior to that third-party surge in 2016, these were all regarded Democrat-leaning states and all have reverted to type mid-term. Win all three and Biden is almost certainly president. It is almost impossible to envisage a path to Trump victory without at least one of them.

Punters looking for bigger prices on Biden could consider the handicaps where the Democrat challenger can be backed at longer odds than here, but you'll still be getting odds-on until you reach -100.5 electoral college seats at around 2.26/5.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.