Premier League Tips

Once polls close, results will start arriving county by county, with multiple states reporting simultaneously. The CNN coverage will rotate numerous live scoreboards. Picking the state with the smallest margin means an interest in every one.

It is no surprise to see Florida favourite at 6/1 given its history of photo-finishes. I like the odds about several and may well add another in the next nine days. For now, though, 14/1 about Texas very much appeals.

Democrats excited by early vote numbers

Texas is all over the news and will provide the story of the night, if Joe Biden takes it. The betting still strongly favours Trump at 1.42/5 but Democrats are trying hard not to get over-excited by the early voting numbers.

Turnout is off the scale. Nearly 7M have voted already. That amounts to over 40% of all registered voters and 80% of 2016 voters. Turnout was a paltry 46% last time and will obviously rise dramatically.

Caution must always be urged before assuming which party will benefit but logic, and the suggestions from elsewhere, suggest it is the Democrats. The counties with the most eye-catching numbers lean blue.

Anti-Trump voters are motivated like never before and it is harder to explain why there would be a mass of voters enthused to vote for the president now, but weren't four years ago.

Trump underperforming his party here

This remains a Republican-leaning state. In the Senate race, John Cornyn has a clear lead, outperforming Trump. He has been openly trying to distance himself from the president, offering a further signal about local sentiment. As explained in my state-by-state betting guide, there has been a stark reaction against Trump in the suburbs,

The latest poll average shows Trump winning by a mere 0.1%. Even if, as I suspect, he improves as conservative-leaning sceptics fall into line, differential turnout could erase a small advantage.

I think Biden is overpriced to win the state at 3.55/2. It will be very close and perfect for this market. Much preferred to at least four shorter-priced alternatives.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.