US Election Bet of the Day: How to back Trump at bigger than 6/1

US President Donald Trump
Any Trump win would be by a narrow margin

To conclude Paul Krishnamurty's daily series of tips, he says this Trump bet is far superior value compared to his outright odds...

"If Trump is a 3.02/1 chance to win, he should not be anywhere near 7.413/2 for this electoral college band. Were he to pull the upset, it is overwhelmingly likely that this lands."

Back Trump to win 270-299 Electoral College Votes @ 7.413/2

Back Trump to win 270-299 Electoral College Votes @ 7.413/2

This is the 20th and final bet in my daily series. Tomorrow, I'll run through how to trade in-running once polls close and the results start coming in. You can find the full list here in this Twitter thread.

The consistent theme running through them is to back Biden. To win the presidency, his top targets and to beat the handicap lines.

Ways to cover against Trump's outright odds

However even if the odds are wrong, they show no sign of correcting before polls close. So if you're a Biden backer feeling over-exposed, a saver might be in order.

I've already explained a few ways to do so - back his vote share to be above 46%, to win a quintet of states that he could land, yet still lose overall.

This might be the best way and, critically, one with cashout potential. If Trump is a 3.02/1 chance to win, he should not be anywhere near 7.413/2 for this electoral college band. Were he to pull the upset, it is overwhelmingly likely that this lands.

How the electoral college maths add up

Let's run through the maths. Trump won 306 ECVs in 2016. All of Biden's top-seven targets yield more than seven ECVs so Trump would need to retain them all, or gain another state from Clinton's tally to repeat. The latter outcome is highly unlikely with the possible exception of Nevada (six ECVs).

I will be stunned if Biden doesn't win Michigan and Wisconsin. They account for 26 ECVs so would reduce Trump's tally to 280.

One of two things will happen in-running. Either, as I strongly believe, it will become obvious soon that Biden is winning with plenty to spare. Or, that the race is close, on a knife-edge. In the latter scenario, these odds quickly collapse below 4.03/1.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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