US Election Bet of the Day: How to back a Biden landslide

Back Biden to win 330-359 Electoral College Votes @ 6.25/1

In yesterday's opener to our 'Bet of the Day' series, I argued that Joe Biden's odds for Next President are wrong and represent a unique opportunity to, in effect, back conventional indicators over conspiracy theories about fake polls.

Of course at 1.51/2, betting odds-on won't appeal to everyone. For bigger odds and more speculative opportunities, consider trying to predict his winning margin. This is best done via the Biden Electoral College Votes market.

How the maths break down

This involves the distribution of electoral college votes awarded to the winner of each state. There are 538 in total so, to win the presidency, requires winning 270 'ECVs'. The starting position from 2016 has Trump on 306, Biden 232 (Clinton's total).

Here's my current estimate. I expect Biden to retain all the states won by Clinton, then gain Michigan (16 ECVs), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20) with plenty to spare. This takes him to 278 and the presidency, with plenty more available.

Although not quite with the same level of confidence, Arizona (11), Florida (29), North Carolina (15) and the two congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine (1 each) are also currently in the Biden column. That takes him up to 335.

From here it gets tougher. I'd give him roughly an even chance in Ohio (18), Georgia (16) and around 40% in Iowa (6). Texas (38) is also not out of the question - around 30%.

330-359 covers wide range of outcomes

If he wins all the first two tranches - as polls strongly imply - but nothing else, Biden will land in the 330-359 band. So too if he adds just one of Georgia, Ohio and Iowa, or any two involving Iowa. Or one of those states could compensate for losing North Carolina. Or less likely scenarios where he takes Texas but fails in other targets further up his list.

All this means 6.25/1 represents cracking value. Not necessarily because he will definitely land in that band, but because it covers so many permutations among these 'toss-up' states.

My strategy is to think ahead to election night and the in-play betting. Once the results start coming in, these odds will shift quite dramatically as traders update their predictions and maths.

Whilst I could well see Biden going beyond 360 or falling just below, I'm very confident 330-359 will be a strong contender in either scenario and will trade much shorter than 6.25/1.

Take the odds now and hold them. In due course, I may add covers before the election or set a lay target for the in-play action.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.