US Election Latest Odds: Trump's chances improve dramatically

Donald Trump had another good weekend on the Betfair Exchange as market moves saw the odds shorten on him winning reelection as US president and taking the crucial state of Florida.

Joe Biden 1.684/6 is still the favourite to win the election on 3 November but Trump 2.486/4 is now a 40% chance to get a second term, having been as low as 31% a week ago.

At the same time Biden has gone from 69% likely to win the White House to 60. That's still a strong position for a challenger but the momentum is swinging to Trump, in the betting at least.

If he makes the same inroads during the next seven days the candidates would be 50/50 as they headed into the final week - a tantalising prospect albeit an alarming one for those who say Biden needs to win emphatically.

As it stands, there is a fortnight to go until voting day and the president will throw everything at his bid for four more years.

There is good news Trump in arguably the most electorally important state. Florida has voted for the winner of every election since 1964 and, although Biden 1.9620/21 is marginal favourite, Trump 2.0421/20 has made up significant ground in he last week and will believe he can close the gap.

Four years ago, Trump won Florida by 1.2%. Four years earlier, Barack Obama edged out Mitt Romney by 0.9%. It is where elections are won and lost by the finest margins.

You can get updates on the US election latest betting news throughout the day on today's Twitter thread:

Monday's #Election2020 Thread

1⃣ It has been another extraordinary 24 hours, with money pouring in for Trump and moving the Next President odds closer to parity.

Check back throughout the day for latest market moves, polls, breaking news and analysis. pic.twitter.com/IQAS0sSf9e

? Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) October 19, 2020

Meanwhile, nervous Biden supporters might get some reassurance from Paul Krishnamurty's bet of the day. He think the big early voting numbers, and a potentially high turnout on 3 November, should be good news for Biden.

At the same time, however, Paul emphasizes that this cannot be taken for granted in such an uncertain political climate. He goes in-depth on turnout and the total votes betting. For more on these matters, and other aspects of the election, check out the Politics... Only Bettor podcast.