US Election Bet of the Day: Extra turnout isn't factored into some odds yet

US voters for Trump and Biden
Both sets of voters are ultra-motivated

Early voting and mid-term trends point towards a massive rise in turnout. Paul Krishnamurty says this isn't factored into the vote tally odds...

Back 70 Million Plus in Trump Vote Tally @ 7.613/2

Yet another aspect in which this election differs from all others is how side markets simply do not correlate with the Next President odds. We can see this via some of the state betting and the same applies to vote tallies.

There are two such markets available on the exchange - Trump Popular Vote Tally and Biden Popular Vote Tally. The options rise to a maximum of 70M plus for Trump, 75M for Biden.

To reach either upper-end target would need a significant advance on 2016. Trump's winning tally was 62,984,828. Clinton won the popular vote with 65,853,514.

Early voting signals big rise in turnout

Don't rule either out. We should be wary of drawing too many conclusions from the massive early voting numbers, as it isn't totally clear which party that will favour. Are these people new voters or just motivated Democrats going early? People who normally vote in-person but have switched to mail-in due to the pandemic.

We discussed this in the last episode of Politics...Only Bettor. I believe it will help the Democrats, who have never been better motivated and whose voters are historically less reliable, but the rest of the team were sceptical of drawing such conclusions.

Irrespective of which candidate benefits, all the indications are that turnout is going to rise substantially. Some counties are projecting up to a 50% rise.

Such trends have been evident throughout Trump's first term. For example, turnout for the 2018 House of Representative elections was 50%. Up from 36% in the equivalent 2014 mid-terms and 41% in 2010.

150M total votes is not unrealistic

Let's run through the maths. Predicting turnout will rise by a tenth is not ambitious. Some suggest it could rise by a fifth. There were 136,669,276 votes cast in 2016. The total will rise inevitably due to extra registration and even without counting that add-on, a 10% rise takes it above 150M.

Indeed David Axelrod, former electoral guru to Barack Obama, predicted confidently that over 150M votes will be cast. If exactly that number, Biden's current projected 52.4% amounts to 78.6M votes. Trump's to 62.7M.

Note those projected percentages will rise because there's probably an extra 4% in undecideds to be allocated. Shared equally, the tallies rise to 81.6M and 65.7M.

If so, Trump needs more than 70M

That would fit with my confident predictions of a Biden landslide. I took 3.412/5 early about 175M plus for Biden and would be happy to take more at 2.56/4 now the odds have crashed.

I don't believe Trump will get anywhere near 70M but, given how the market is moving in his favour, 7.413/2 about the higher target doesn't even begin to correlate. To win the election - a 2.447/5 chance this morning - he'll need to get many more than 70M. So this bet could very well win, yet Biden still get the landslide.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

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