US Politics: Is Trump Finished?

He's dominated the political conversation for nearly seven years, produced one of the greatest upsets in betting history, been impeached twice during a tumultuous term in office, lost his party every branch of government, failed in a violent coup attempt. Yet Donald Trump remains favourite to win the 2024 election. The question, after probably his worst week since January 2021, is for how long?

Trump weakening on Betfair markets

That position at the head of the market is the result of a steady gamble since losing office. He'd shortened to just 4.131/10 to win in 2024 and 2.0421/20 to be the Republican Nominee. At the end of a dramatic week, those odds have drifted significantly, to 5.49/2 and 2.77/4 respectively.

Three particular crises have hit Trump. They aren't new, or unpredictable. Yet all are significant, with potentially catastrophic implications.

First, the scandal I've long predicted would ruin him. Trump's long-term accountants Mazars have dropped the Trump Organisation as a client, and retracted a decade's worth of financial statements, stating they are not reliably accurate.

Damaging info emerging from NY investigations

This pertains to the long-running, parallel, civil and criminal cases pursued by the state of New York. When in power, Trump managed to delay with legal challenges but, since a Supreme Court ruling in 2020, their authorities have been poring over documents from Mazars and Deutsche Bank.

Attorney General Letitia James hasn't pulled any punches in public comments, claiming to have found substantial fraud. Eric Trump pleaded the Fifth Amendment on more than 500 occasions rather than answer questions. Eric, father and sister, must all now give evidence under oath, but will presumably utilise their constitutional right to silence. It won't look good. The attack-ads write themselves.

By his own admission #TrumpIsGuilty pic.twitter.com/BzSbBkxGTM

-- MeidasTouch.com (@MeidasTouch) February 19, 2022

Why does this case matter? Because it will drain Trump and expose the true nature of his business, how much he is really worth and very possibly, drop an enormous hint to explain why he went into politics and whose agenda he represents. Various, credible biographers will be vindicated, decades after reporting Trump's scandalous finances and activities.

These blue chip firms are in damage limitation mode. Deutsche Bank have been embroiled in a global money laundering scam, connected to transnational organised crime, for several years. His long-term banker Rosemary Vrablic resigned following the Supreme Court decision and his election defeat in 2020. Mazars no doubt hope that, by coming clean now, they can reduce punishment to a hefty fine.

Who is left in Trump's corner, besides his family, who may well be implicated? The time and cost of fighting a multi-year complex fraud case will be astronomic.

Charges coming over taking classified material?

Two further major problems emerged on Friday. First, National Archives confirmed that Trump had improperly taken classified national documents to his home. These documents were only recovered after legal pressure and the matter has been referred to the Department of Justice. He could be charged with violating the Presidential Records Act.

Whilst criminal charges are from certain, the episode is humiliating. Veterans of the 2016 election will recall how he rose to power by weaponising Hillary Clinton's use of a private e-mail server, apparently doing much less wrong.

Trump can't escape blame for Jan 6th insurrection

Third, federal judge dealt another blow by ruling that civil lawsuits against Trump and January 6th rioters can go ahead. The cases were brought by 11 Congressmen including the Jan 6th Committee chairman, plus two police officers.

Pressed to dismiss the cases by Trump's team, the judge agreed regarding Donald Trump Jnr and Rudy Giuliani, but allowed cases to proceed against the former President, far-right militia groups the Proud Boys and Oathkeepers, plus the leader of the former.

In his ruling, Judge Mehta said there was a 'plausible conspiracy' warranting investigation, that went beyond direct meetings. That a 'tacit agreement' was plausible, with Trump directing the paramilitaries via tweets, speeches and on the TV debate stage.

If a trial ever takes place, that public association will ruin Trump. On trial alongside organised, fascist groups for staging a violent coup attempt.

Legal time and costs could ruin Trump

I suspect we'll have a considerable wait, though, because the Trump team will surely appeal and drag this out. Likewise, nobody expects a sudden withdrawal from Trump. However it will take an extremely heavy toll on his time, reputation and wallet. He struggled to find decent lawyers, even whilst the sitting president. Giuliani worked for free, apparently.

Some senior Republicans have begun to show the hint of a backbone. Mike Pence has publicly defended himself, and dismissed Trump claims that he could, or should, have blocked the election result. Mitch McConnell drifts on and off message, but is clearly not a true loyalist.

In my view, McConnell is banking on the law dealing with Trump, therefore giving Republicans room to slowly, quietly drop him without having to directly take on his core supporters. The GOP do not need this as the backdrop to the 2022 mid-terms or 2024. As it stands, not withstanding all that legal stress, that campaign will begin and end with Trump under pressure to peacefully accept the result.

The legitimate counter-argument is, as ever, that Trump is completely immune to scandals. The ultimate Teflon politician. These legal challenges never hurt him. His supporters will dismiss everything as a witch-hunt and Republicans will fall in line. The nomination is his for the taking.

Trump's protective ring is no more

Fair points, but remember that for four years, he was protected by the office of the presidency. His Twitter account could shift any news cycle and change the subject. I predicted Trump's corruption would ruin him in office, either prompting a withdrawal or lame duck, humiliating candidacy. Neither transpired. The legal process can prove incredibly long.

He no longer has such protection and the cases are developing, in the wrong direction. These aren't his only legal problems - check this dossier of 19 cases. Grand juries have been assembled.

I must reiterate. Just because it is hard to accurately predict when something will become unsustainable, doesn't stop it being so. I have grave doubts the ship can stay afloat for another two years.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.