US Election: First Debate has potential to turn the odds upside-down

• Betfair's Sam Rosbottom begins weekly column on US politics

• Who will come out on top of the first debate?
• And what effect may the debate have on the election betting?

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• Get the latest data including current prices and volume of bets in our daily update

Four years ago, the debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden did little to move the dial on the betting markets. However that trend was well and truly bucked when Biden's campaign all but unravelled live on air, as millions watched the awkward confrontation between the two back in June.

Now it's Vice President Kamala Harris' shot at taking on Trump, and more significantly, it's the American public's opportunity to see the Democratic candidate in the media spotlight, which isn't something we've seen much of so far.

The strategy from her campaign team so far seems to have been to keep her away from the cameras and microphones, and we haven't seen her do many interviews yet. Compare that to Trump - the Republican candidate cannot stay away from the limelight and newer forms of media, such as a recent podcast appearance with American comedian Theo Von, a viral YouTube video with one of the world's top golfers Bryson DeChambeau and that awkward Elon Musk Twitter/X conversation masquerading as an interview.

The point being, we're seeing so much more of Trump at the moment, because that's what he loves and equally because Harris hasn't really been out there in front of the cameras, microphones, and influencer media. It's important to remember, she is only really six weeks into her Presidential campaign, so in theory she's still setting up her stall, but next week, that's when things must and will ramp up.

Campaigning is going to get more intense

Strap yourselves in, because the real campaigning starts next week.

Things did start promisingly for the VP, with her odds dipping to 1.9110/11 at the start of August ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where she was formally confirmed as their candidate, and there's no denying the energy at that convention was streaks ahead of the energy at the Republican's event back in July.

Harris' momentum on the market however has stalled in the past couple of weeks, and since her appearance, with running mate Tim Walz in a CNN interview that lasted less than 30 minutes last week, punters have been backing Trump, who is now just ahead as the 1.9520/21 favourite.

Trump v Harris is a closer betting market than Trump v Biden

The betting market is much tighter this time around compared to 2020's race, at this point four years ago Biden was way ahead, and went on to be as short as 1.618/13 at the end of September.

There's very little separating either candidate so far. In fact, since the final day of the Democrat National Convention on August 22, £5.3m has been wagered on the Betfair Exchange Election Winner market, and it's almost split right down the middle, with 50% going for Trump, and 49% staked on Harris. Could we be in for one of the tightest elections ever? At the moment, the betting data is suggesting that could well be the case.

Advantage Trump on key issues but Wednesday could change everything

Recent figures show that the two most important topics in this election for the American public are the economy and immigration, both of which Trump is polling better on, so it will be interesting to see how Harris approaches these subjects during the debate.

The latest news overnight is that Harris has agreed to the rules of the upcoming debate, and more significantly, has agreed to muting the mics when it's the other candidate's turn to speak, which is something many analysts believe is a benefit to team Trump, relieving the viewers and potential voters from any ramblings and interjections from the Donald.

Gauging the temperature of the market it's too close to call at the moment, with Trump just ahead according to punters, will Wednesday's face-off move the dial? Yes. Will it win the election for either candidate? No. Will it be explosive? Absolutely.

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