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UK Politics: Sunak's Tories are on course for a disaster worse than 1997

Paul Krishnamurty
05 February 2023

Former PM Liz Truss and current PM Rishi Sunak

Could we see yet another Tory leadership election?

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With the Tory government beset by crises, divided and tanking to new depths in the polls, Paul Krishnamurty says the next election could be the party's worst ever...

Tories lurch from one crisis to another
Polls project worse result than 1997
Sunak to be destabilised by rivals?

Last week, Rishi Sunak celebrated 100 days as Prime Minister. Whilst that represents an improvement on his predecessor, the signs for him and the Conservative Party remain grim. According to the latest Betfair odds, Sunak has a mere 36% chance of still being party leader in 2025. Alternatively, he's rated 15% likely to leave office before the end of 2023.

Sunak approvals are falling fast

Given all the drama and chaos that has beset the Conservative Party of late, it was probably optimistic to hope for their third leader in this Parliament to enjoy a honeymoon period. Nevertheless if such a concept exists, it would be the first 100 days. At the end of it, the Tories and their leader find themselves in an utterly disastrous polling position.

Sunak's 22% score on Best PM has sustained for two polls in a row. Turns out it was not an outlier.

As I said before - Johnson only scored worse than this once- the week of his resignation. https://t.co/sCmFswj8yw
-- Josh (@JMagosh) February 3, 2023

Until now, I have been wary of forming a strong conclusion about Sunak, or the next election. During the first of the two Tory leadership contests of 2022, I tweeted this.

Extending the point I briefly made in this.

If Penny Mordaunt wins, expect 1992. Tory comeback.
If Liz Truss wins, expect 1997. Tory meltdown.
If Rishi Sunak wins, I'm sitting on the fence. https://t.co/HIY1lNh7sR
-- Political Gambler (@paulmotty) July 13, 2022

It reflected a belief that Rishi Sunak had enough public goodwill in the bank, from the Covid bailout schemes, to earn a fair hearing from the British public. And that - as before 1992 - Labour's big, midterm lead looks shallow.

Parallels with 1997 are obvious

However with each day that passes, the situation looks much more like 1997. A government engulfed by one sleaze scandal after another, and a relentlessly bad news cycle. A bitterly divided and undisciplined parliamentary party. A key segment of Tory voters in despair at rising interest rates. An emerging, informal, tactical coalition between Labour and Lib Dem voters.

Indeed, the polling aggregator UKPollingReport project (assuming a uniform national swing), a result pretty similar to 1997. After that election, Labour held 418 seats, the Tories 165 and Lib Dems 46. Considering the Labour tally nowadays includes at least 40 fewer seats in Scotland, this represents a superior position.

Some will doubtless say this is just midterm blues. The government are unpopular because they are struggling with very real problems that any government would, and that the opposition has no answers. I may well have said that three months ago.

Not now. It strikes me that the tectonic plates of British politics have moved in a way they haven't since the end of the Brown government around 2009, and not in an anti-Tory direction since the mid-1990s. There is plenty to say the next election could be worse for them than 1997.

Tory position may be worse than mid-90s

I remember the 1990s well and studied it in great detail. The Tories had many problems, for sure, but they did have a story to tell. That they had saved, transformed the economy under Margaret Thatcher. And that by leaving the Exchange Rate Mechanism - the disastrous sequence of events that had ruined their credibility - John Major's govt had actually sparked a boom. On most indicators, the British economy was thriving in 1997.

Moreover, there was no serious threat on the right wing. The Referendum Party (UKIP's predecessor) won a mere 2.6% share of the 1997 vote. The BNP just 0.1%. So dissatisfied Tory voters had three choices. Either switch to a barely disguised progressive alliance of Labour/Lib Dems; vote for a no-hoper, or stay at home. Against that backdrop, the Tories earned 31% at the general election and lost over half their seats.

It is of course perfectly possible that the Tories will hit 31% and lose by a similar margin. However they should worry about the right-wing threat from ReformUK. Nigel Farage's new vehicle are polling around 6-7%, and we know from experience that he has a direct line to parts of the Tory base.

13 year legacy offers no positive narrative

The Tories' greater problem involves the economy and lack of positive narrative. The main legacies of their 13 years in power are austerity and Brexit. The former is increasingly recognised to lie behind social problems from the NHS crisis to housing to higher energy bills due to lack of insulation. Meanwhile support for Brexit is now a clear minority position and is widely blamed for our poor economic performance.

Normally in a situation like this, the government would be desperately trying to change the subject. Instead, thanks to the internal dynamics of the Tory party, they are forced to boast about a deeply unpopular position. The opposition parties will be celebrating every tweet or party political broadcast like this.

We got Brexit done.

We're seizing the opportunities of Brexit to deliver on your priorities. pic.twitter.com/3zMn81GwMX
-- Conservatives (@Conservatives) January 31, 2023

Previously, I wrote of the peril facing Sunak from a disillusioned and divided party, whose members rejected him in favour of Liz Truss and prefer Boris Johnson. That story is a grower. Today's headlines revolve around Truss and her claim that her short, ill-fated premiership was destroyed by a left-wing economic establishment.

I have written for the Sunday @Telegraph about what happened during my time in Downing Street and the lessons I have learned...

'I assumed upon entering Downing Street my mandate would be respected. How wrong I was'https://t.co/34DbzjZD2z
-- Liz Truss (@trussliz) February 4, 2023

Truss and Johnson add to Sunak headaches

Truss is seeking to build internal pressure on Sunak to deliver the tax-cutting agenda she tried. Johnson is talking the same game and has been touring the US media, shouting his pro-Ukraine credentials at every turn.

On Friday, he was a guest on his former Culture Secretary's new GBNews show. Nadine Dorries has a book out soon, entitled "The political assassination of Boris Johnson." This conservativepost.co.uk site is becoming a key part of their machine.

Boris could be set for a return to No 10 says former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries https://t.co/4A4NDckoIJ
-- Conservative Post (@ConsPost) December 27, 2022

Local elections are a disaster-in-waiting

At a grassroots level, the Independent report more Tory associations struggling to fill a slate of candidates at May's local elections. Those elections promise to be utterly catastrophic for the party and liable to destabilise Sunak.

There may be no hint of a leadership challenge just yet, but as the Johnson downfall taught us, the way to play political betting markets is to think ahead, to future events and trajectory, rather than get caught up in recency bias.

Sunak is unlikely to receive any boost soon. Yes, inflation will fall and the economy likely have a soft landing but rising interest rates are catastrophic for any Tory leader. If they can't win mortgage-holders, they can't win, full stop.

I'm not predicting Sunak will go this year, but I do believe there is some trading mileage in betting on his demise. 6.86/1 about a 2023 exit will likely drift to much bigger odds before those local elections and, equally, unless Boris Johnson is destroyed by the Privileges Committee, 9.28/1 about him being leader at the next election has potential.

As for the next election, it is hard to argue with Labour's ever stronger credentials. They're rated 80% likely to win Most Seats at 1.251/4 and 57% likely to win an Overall Majority at 1.768/11. The question feels less who will win, than by how much.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

Bet here:

Year of Next UK General Election

Year Rishi Sunak is Replaced as Conservative Leader

Most Seats at Next UK General Election

Overall Majority at Next UK General Election

Prime Minister After Rishi Sunak

Next Conservative Leader

Boris Johnson Conservative Leader at Next Election

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UK Politics: Sunak's Tories are on course for a disaster worse than 1997

Tories lurch from one crisis to another

Polls project worse result than 1997

Sunak to be destabilised by rivals?

Sunak approvals are falling fast

Parallels with 1997 are obvious

Tory position may be worse than mid-90s

13 year legacy offers no positive narrative

Truss and Johnson add to Sunak headaches

Local elections are a disaster-in-waiting

UK - Next General Election: UK - Next General Election (Overall Majority)

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Politics Live Blog

Tories lurch from one crisis to another

Polls project worse result than 1997

Sunak to be destabilised by rivals?

Sunak approvals are falling fast

Parallels with 1997 are obvious

Tory position may be worse than mid-90s

13 year legacy offers no positive narrative

Truss and Johnson add to Sunak headaches

Local elections are a disaster-in-waiting

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