General Politics Betting

Brazilian Election: Lula odds-on to beat Bolsonaro on Sunday

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
Brazilian presidential candidates Lula and Bolsonaro
Lula (left) is favourite to beat Bolsonaro on Sunday

Latest odds for Brazillian presidential election ahead of Sunday's final round between President Jair Bolsonaro and former-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva...

  • Left-winger backed to beat right-wing president
  • Lula won R1 but Bolsonaro exceeded expectations
  • Challenger leading polls by around 5%


Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will beat Jair Bolsonaro in their final round run-off in Brazil's presidential election this Sunday, according to the latest odds on the Betfair Exchange.

Lula, who previously served as president from 2003 to 2010, is 1.558/15 to oust Bolsonaro 2.767/4 who has been in power since 2019.

During his time in office Bolsonaro has been criticised for destroying Rain Forest and letting Covid-19 rip through the country which saw an estimated 700,000 deaths linked to the virus.

He is a right-winger who has tried to exploit divisions among the electorate the way Donald Trump did in America.

Lula does not come without baggage and was accused of corruption while in office.

Brazil is the world's fourth largest democracy with 150m people eligible to vote.

"Threat to democracy" v "Radical socialist"

Lula has spent the campaign trying to convince Brazilians they were better off when he was president, and calling Bolsonaro a threat to democracy.

Bolsonaro says Lula is a radical socialist and claims his policies will ruin Brazilians' hopes of prosperity.

The left-wing candidate Lula won the first round of the election on 2 October - in which 120m Brazilians voted - and is ahead by around five points going into Sunday's run-off.

However, Bolsonaro out-performed many predictions in the first round and it was closer than many had expected, with Lula taking 48% of the vote and Bolsonaro 43.

Bolsonaro's better than expected result was attributed to a raft of state spending that he authorised in the months leading up to the election.

The Betfair Exchange market is for the president after the election. Bolsonaro, in Trumpian style, has indicated that he may not accept the result on Sunday if it goes against him.

Lula has urged his opponent to accept the will of the Brazilian people whatever the outcome.

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