General Election

Next General Election Date: Reasons to back summer election on Betfair

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
Will Sunak call a summer election?

Rishi Sunak says there will be a general election in the second half of 2024 but could it be as early as July? Here's why backing a summer election on the Betfair Exchange may make sense...

  • July election crashed to odds-on on Betfair Exchange

  • Labour a short price to win majority with Starmer PM

  • Tories could lose 200+ seats according to Exchange odds

A July general election shortened to odds-on on the Betfair Exchange on Wednesday as rumours that Rishi Sunak will go to the country this summer reached fever pitch in Westminster.

At the time of writing a July election is 1.251/4 (an 80% chance) in a rapidly moving Betfair Exchange market. It was 17.016/1 a month ago.

There is still a chance that it could take place even earlier and a June election is 2.01/1 (50/50).

November, which was the favourite for several months, is out to 3.711/4.

Why Sunak could call summer general election

Senior government figures, who usually quash rumours, have remained silent about a summer election today and the government hasn't denied it.

The PM received a rare piece of good economic news this morning with inflation dropping to its lowest in three years.

At today's Prime Minister's Questions, Sunak declined to rule out a summer election, reiterating that a general election will be in the second half of the year which would encompass July.

Polling station 2024.jpg

There is a cabinet meeting scheduled for this afternoon and journalists are reporting that senior cabinet members don't know what it is about.

Meanwhile, Grant Schapps delayed a proposed trip abroad and the foreign secretary David Cameron is on his way back from Albania.

The King is in London, and is due to meet Sunak this afternoon for their weekly meeting. The King will need to be notified of an election before it is announced.

Who will win the next general election?

Recent polls have put Labour ahead by more than 20 points and they are 1.14 (an 88% chance) on the Betfair Exchange to win a majority.

The Conservatives are (68%) 1.48 on the Exchange to lose more than 200 seats at the election.

Keir Starmer is 1.091/11 (92%) to be the next prime minister.

Election market "completely crashed"

Betfair were not playing down the movement in the election date market after Tuesday's developments.

Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: "Rumours are circulating that a summer election is set to be called and punters have reacted by backing July into odds-on at 10/11, having been as big as 16/1 this time last month.

"The market has completely crashed and it looks as though the nation will be going to the polls sooner rather than later. November had been the favourite for some time, but it's now July that punters favour."

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