General Election

General Election Date: July vote 80% chance on Betfair Exchange

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
Will Sunak be leaving Downing Street for good this summer?

A July general election is the new favourite with punters on the Betfair Exchange after reports that Rishi Sunak will go to the country this summer...

  • July election crashed to odds-on on Betfair Exchange

  • Labour a short price to win majority with Starmer PM

  • Tories could lose 200+ seats according to Exchange odds


15:00 - July election backed as UK awaits Sunak announcement

A July general election was backed into 1.251/4 (an 80% chance) on the Betfair Exchange on Wednesday afternoon as the country awaited a statement from Rishi Sunak.

Earlier at PMQs, Sunak said there would be an election in the second half of the year and refused to rule out a summer election.

A cabinet meeting is being held this afternoon, with foreign secretary David Cameron cutting short a trip to Albania to attend.

Everything points to an imminent annoucement about the election date from the prime minister.

11:30 - Price on July election crashes amid rumours

A July general election shortened to odds-on on the Betfair Exchange after reports that Rishi Sunak would go to the country this summer.

An autumn election had long been expected but at the time of writing July is the 2.01/1 favourite. In what is a rapidly moving Exchange market July has been backed as short as 1.738/11 (a 58% chance). It was 17.016/1 a month ago.

Sunak gambles on good news but Labour firm favourites

Prime Minster Rishi Sunak has been holding out for some good news that could boost the Conservatives' chances of staying government.

Today it was reported that UK inflation has dropped to its lowest level for three years, although the decline was smaller than expected.

Rishi Sunak speech.jpg

The PM would like to be able to tell voters that Britain is on the road to economic recovery but there are few signs that the public has faith in Sunak and his party.

Recent polls have put Labour ahead by more than 20 points and they are 1.141/7 (an 88% chance) on the Betfair Exchange to win a majority.

The Conservatives are 1.4840/85 on the Exchange to lose more than 200 seats at the election.

Election market "completely crashed" - Betfair Expert

Betfair were not playing down the movement in the election date market after Tuesday's developments.

Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: "Rumours are circulating that a summer election is set to be called and punters have reacted by backing July into odds-on at 10/11, having been as big as 16/1 this time last month.

"The market has completely crashed and it looks as though the nation will be going to the polls sooner rather than later. November had been the favourite for some time, but it's now July that punters favour."


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