General Election

General Election 2024: The key Betfair markets for 4 July

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
Rishi Sunak called the general election for 4 July 2024

Rishi Sunak surprised everyone by calling a general election for 4 July but it will be an even bigger shock if the Conservatives avoid a crushing defeat to Labour. Read our guide to the key betting markets...

  • The key Betfair Exchange markets for election 2024

  • Labour majority heavy odds-on

  • Conservatives backed to lose 200+ seats

Britons will go to the polls on 4 July for a snap general election after Rishi Sunak decided to go to the country earlier than expected.

Sunak is gambling on a reduction in inflation helping the Conservatives to stay in power. If they are successful, and Keir Starmer's Labour are defeated, it will be one of the biggest election upsets since Betfair opened politics markets.

As this short guide to the key general election 2024 Betfair Exchange markets shows, Labour are firm favourites to return to power for the first time in 14 years.

We will have in-depth analysis of the election betting all the way to polling day. For now, here are the markets to look out for.

General Election 2024 - Overall majority betting

A Labour majority is 1.132/15 on the Betfair Exchange which implies that it is an 89% chance. Labour have not won a majority since 2005 when Tony Blair was prime minister.

A Conservative majority is 29.028/1. They won an 80-seat majority at the last general election in 2019 and their current odds are a damning indicment of the public's loss of faith in the party.

No overall majority is 9.617/2 and that's an outcome that we have seen at two of the last four UK general elections (in 2010 and 2017).

General Election 2024 - Most seats betting

Labour are 1.071/14 to win the most seats at the general election.

The party with the most seats usually forms the goverment even if they fail to win a majority - as the Conservatives did under David Cameron in 2010 and Theresa May in 2017 when they won the most seats but fell short of the total required for a majority in the House of Commons.

The Conservatives are 14.5 to win the most seats.

General Election 2024 - How many seats will the Conservatives lose betting

As the above odds indicate, the Tories could be in for one of their worst ever election results. Polls have consistently put them 20 points behind Labour and Sunak's party faces pressure from the right too, with Reform UK looking to take votes from them.

Conservative MPs are fearful and some have already decided not to defend their seats.

So how bad will it be for the Tories?

They are 1.454/9 on the Betfair Exchange to lose 201 or more seats on 4 July. Oof.

Other general election 2024 Betfair markets

There is a wide range of general election markets on the Betfair Exchange and they are an excellent way to guage how the parties' fortunes are fluctuating during the campaign.

First up, an obvious one. Starmer is 1.051/20 to be Britain's next prime minister and the first Labour leader since Gordon Brown to occupy 10 Downing Street.

Summer elecitons often see large turnouts. At the outset, 62.5 to 65% of the eligible electorate is the 2.89/5 favourite on the Betfair Exchange election turnout market.

There are also markets for the party vote percentages, seat totals and much more.

Now read General Election: Snap election won't save Rishi Sunak


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