Saturday Racing Cheat Sheet: Best bets for ITV Racing at Kempton, Newcastle and more

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Get the best bets from Betfair horse racing experts for Saturday's ITV action at Kempton, Newcastle and more as well as Paul Nicholls on his best chance of the day...


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Tips Summary

Race Tipster Tip Odds
13:10 Kempton Sam Turner Fasol 4/15.00
13:25 Lingfield Katie Midwinter Democracy Dilemma 11/26.50
14:00 Lingfield Alan Dudman Boiling Point 5/23.50
14:25 Kempton Paul Nicholls Go West 9/43.25
14:43 Newcastle James Mackie Livin On Luco E/W 7/18.00
15:00 Kempton Timeform Verdict Klub De Reve 9/25.50
15:35 Kempton Katie Midwinter Henry's Friend E/W 14/115.00


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Saturday horse racing tips and insight

13:10 Kempton - Sam Turner: Refreshed Fasol can win again

A smooth winner at Musselburgh on New Year's Day, Fasol arguably went back to the well a little too quickly when taking in a competitive Kempton handicap just nine days later.

Considering the prominently-ridden seven-year-old was left tight for room on the home turn and didn't jump two out particularly fluently, he still ran a fine race granted that those who filled the first two spots home ridden chilly.

Third-home A Pai De Nom has since won with authority at Newbury on his next start to give the form further ballast and a six-week break could be the pause that refreshes Fasol.


13:25 Lingfield - Katie Midwinter: No Dilemma about backing Democracy

In the 5f sprint opener at Lingfield, Democracy Dilemma is one to note for the in-form pair of Robert Cowell and Tom Marquand. He's bidding for a ninth career success in his 39th start, and has run well at the track previously.

Things didn't pan out favourably for the six-year-old in Meydan as he was withdrawn at the start before his intended run in a Group Two contest won by Cover Up. But he's more than capable of making his presence felt in Listed company back in Britain, having won at this level in the past.

He has also been able to pose a threat to a future July Cup winner in the past, having been beaten only a length-and-a-half by No Half Measures in a Newbury Group Three previously.

At a price of 11/26.50, Democracy Dilemma makes appeal in this field and can put in a bold bid.


14:00 Lingfield - Alan Dudman: Temperatures raised in Winter Deby

Nebras and Military Academy can both lead, but Boiling Point is the fastest potentially as he ran 11.75 seconds at the 2f point at York. Chancellor was over 1m last time and ran the 2f in 11.53 seconds. Nebras' steadily run Lingfield win last time over 1m2f saw him record a 2f at a much slower 13.48 seconds.

Compare those times to Military Academy and just two rivals in the Winter Derby Trial, and his 2f time was 13.90.

Chancellor's form is at 1m and has to prove himself over 1m2f, and with Boiling Point perhaps a little quicker with more of a test, I can see Sam James running into the turn with a lead on the inside, just like at York and to produce a kick.

At 5/23.50, and on the Cambridgeshire win, he looks more of a bet.


14:25 Kempton - Paul Nicholls: Go West has a great chance.

He's got a great chance. He ran here over Christmas, the ground was a bit fast for him and the two in front went absolutely flat out, it never happened for him and Harry Cobden looked after him. He won well at Musselburgh the last day.

Lucy Wadham's Jax Junior, who is in this race, is a fair horse but he did bleed two runs ago and is not unbeatable. We've got a great record in the race and Go West loves Kempton, so we have got a chance.   


14:43 Newcastle - Jamie Mackie: Marathon trip right up Luco's street

My first selection from Saturday's ITV Racing comes from Newcastle in their flagship Eider Handicap over just shy of the Grand National trip and I am playing two runners against the field each way.

Starting with the Hobbs and White trained Livin On Luco who has progressed nicely over fences this season and has also improved for the step up in distance showing that stamina tests are his game.

Seen just twice this season he made his seasonal return off a mark of 122 in the Southern National Handicap Chase at Fontwell when holding on towards the finish to land the contest, giving the second over a stone.

Sent to the Welsh Grand National off 7lb higher when last seen, he ran another cracker up in trip again to finish less than 10 lengths back in fourth behind the highly talented Haiti Couleurs. The horses all in the frame were thorough stayers and he certainly proved himself off a low weight that day.

He has since been dropped 1lb for this event and runs off a low weight again and looking through the field he looks to be one of few potential improvers still in the field with his age and switch to these types of races. I would like to think he can go close again in what looks an easier contest than the Welsh Grand National.


15:00 Kempton - Timeform Verdict: Klub fancied to get the revs burning

A deep race with plenty open to improvement but Klub De Reve looked ready for this sort of level when winning a C&D novice with plenty in hand so could be the answer.

Double Measure clocked a good time when winning his novice at Huntingdon so is another to consider, while the unbeaten Mustang du Breuil must be respected for a yard that has won this a record 8 times.


15:35 Kempton - Katie Midwinter: Henry can be a punter's Friend

At odds of 14/115.00, Henry's Friend makes each-way appeal in this competitive handicap, only 2lb higher than his last winning mark when successful over The Changing Man at Ascot on his return to action in November.

Representing the in-form duo of Ben Pauling and Ben Jones, the nine-year-old should hold a solid chance as he seeks an eighth career win in his 20th racecourse appearance. He failed to build on a promising start to his current campaign at Cheltenham, in a run worth putting a line through, but returned to some form when a respectable five-length sixth to Deep Cave in December.

The son of Shirocco was dropped 1lb for his latest effort, and could still be well treated at the weights, capable of showing further progression. If able to gain a prominent position early on, Henry's Friend holds solid claims for a team in excellent form, and is one for the shortlist, representing value at double-figure odds.


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