Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets including 25/1 Kempton fancy

• Katie Midwinter has fancies at multiple tracks this Saturday

• Ben Pauling-trained pair make appeal for in-form team at Kempton

• Six-year-old sprinter can land Lingfield prize

• For the latest Betfair Racing odds click here

• Bet £10 get £10 on racing multiples every weekend up to Cheltenham

• Betfair are offering Non-Runner No Bet at Cheltenham!

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Listen to this week's Racing...Only Bettor

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Kempton, 13:10 - Back Tranquil Sea E/W @ 25/126.00

In the opening contest at Kempton, outsider of the field Tranquil Sea warrants each-way consideration for Dan Skelton, capable of outrunning his odds of 25/126.00 under Charlie Todd.

The six-year-old gelding hasn't been seen to best effect in his latest efforts, but drops in trip on a sounder surface which could allow him to fare better. He has the scope for further improvement and has snippets of noteworthy form which would suggest he may prove better than his current rating of 119.

A winner of a 14-runner Cork maiden hurdle for former trainer Paul Nolan, for whom he was able to finish second twice in handicap company behind Mossy Fen and Plains Indian, the son of Teofilo shaped with promise before moving to England. He finished second on debut for his current yard, before beating Marlacoo at Chepstow from only 2lbs lower on 117.

Since his latest win, following wind surgery, Tranquil Sea finished second to Sam Thomas-trained C'Est Different in a Market Rasen handicap, giving away plenty of weight to the eventual winner who is now rated 22lb higher on 131.

With substance to some of his form, his current mark could prove lenient and he is far from a forlorn hope at generous odds, capable of putting in a creditable effort if able to return to form.

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Lingfield, 13:25 - Back Democracy Dilemma @ 11/26.50

In the 5f sprint opener at Lingfield, Democracy Dilemma is one to note for the in-form pair of Robert Cowell and Tom Marquand. He's bidding for a ninth career success in his 39th start, and has run well at the track previously.

Things didn't pan out favourably for the six-year-old in Meydan as he was withdrawn at the start before his intended run in a Group Two contest won by Cover Up. But he's more than capable of making his presence felt in Listed company back in Britain, having won at this level in the past.

He has also been able to pose a threat to a future July Cup winner in the past, having been beaten only a length-and-a-half by No Half Measures in a Newbury Group Three previously.

At a price of 11/26.50, Democracy Dilemma makes appeal in this field and can put in a bold bid.

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Lingfield, 14:00 - Back Military Academy E/W @ 12/113.00

Jane Chapple-Hyam-trained Military Academy is a big priced outsider of the field in this five runner Winter Derby. He has plenty to find on ratings but has emerged with credit against tough, high quality opponents in the past, and a mark of 101 may underestimate his talents when at his best.

Last year, he finished a length-and-three-quarters second to a subsequent Group One winner in Royal Champion, who also landed the Bahrain International Trophy and finished third in the Irish Champion Stakes. He was able to pull four-lengths clear of now 112-rated Persica, who subsequently landed a pair of Group Three prizes.

The Listed winner has all-weather form and was far from disgraced when second to Survie in the trial over course-and-distance last month. The winner that day has since finished third to the aforementioned Royal Champion in a Riyadh Group One, and, although further improvement is required from Military Academy, he may be overpriced.

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Lingfield, 15:10 - Back Shadow Dance @ 15/28.50

Six-year-old gelding Shadow Dance is an interesting contender in his second start for Rebecca Menzies and new connections having previously resided at the Roger Varian yard.

The grey could only manage sixth on yard debut at Kempton, and has been dropped 2lb for his latest effort, now rated 95. His latest handicap win came from his current rating when beating Lieber Power at the 2024 Ebor Festival, therefore he's on a workable mark in this mile-and-a-half contest over a proven trip.

The son of Almanzor was sent off at odds of 9/110.00 behind Ethical Diamond in the Ebor last year, shaping well before weakening late on. The drop to this distance may allow him to fare better in calmer waters, and he's entitled to improve for his latest run following a break, one to note under Kaiya Fraser.

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Fairyhouse, 15:15 - Back Gerri Colombe E/W @ 14/115.00

Gordon Elliott-trained Gerri Colombe may represent value at odds of 14/115.00 considering he is a multiple Grade One winner, who once chased Galopin Des Champs home in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Absent for 421 days before making his return to action at Leopardstown over Christmas, the 10-year-old must prove he still retains plenty of ability as he makes his return over fences having finished third to Home By The Lee in the Galmoy Hurdle when last seen. He is the highest rated contender in the field on a mark of 165, and has too much class on his day to be overlooked in conditions that will be likely to suit.

Although currently the third favourite of the Cullentra yard's trio of runners, Gerri Colombe shouldn't be discounted in this contest. He is clear on ratings and, despite having failed to win since landing the 2024 Aintree Bowl over Ahoy Senor, is dangerous to rule out on form he has shown in the past.

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Kempton, 15:35 - Back Henry's Friend E/W @ 14/115.00

At odds of 14/115.00, Henry's Friend makes each-way appeal in this competitive handicap, only 2lb higher than his last winning mark when successful over The Changing Man at Ascot on his return to action in November.

Representing the in-form duo of Ben Pauling and Ben Jones, the nine-year-old should hold a solid chance as he seeks an eighth career win in his 20th racecourse appearance. He failed to build on a promising start to his current campaign at Cheltenham, in a run worth putting a line through, but returned to some form when a respectable five-length sixth to Deep Cave in December.

The son of Shirocco was dropped 1lb for his latest effort, and could still be well treated at the weights, capable of showing further progression. If able to gain a prominent position early on, Henry's Friend holds solid claims for a team in excellent form, and is one for the shortlist, representing value at double-figure odds.

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Kempton, 16:05 - Back Bad @ 9/43.25

Another Ben Pauling representative partnered by Ben Jones to consider on the card is course specialist Bad, who landed the penultimate race 12 months ago.

The likeable grey is 19lb higher than his win at this meeting last year, but backed up the success with another course-and-distance victory from a 9lb higher mark, before landing another win here in October from 138.

Now rated 144, he faces a stiffer task than in previous visits to the Sunbury-on-Thames venue, but comes into the race off the back of a creditable second to Vincenzo from an unchanged mark, and, with course form firmly in his favour, should be able to pose a serious threat in this field.

Bidding to retain his unbeaten record at the track following three wins here, Bad is the one to beat. He has shown he is able to be competitive from his current rating this season, and was an excellent fifth to Panic Attack from a 1lb higher mark at Cheltenham in November.

The seven-year-old could be capable of showing further improvement, possibly still on an upward trajectory, and, with the yard in such brilliant form, he warrants consideration.

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Sam Turner is also backing Bad - find out why

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Katie's Saturday Racing Multi

Back Democracy Dilemma (13.25 Lingfield) and Bad (16.02 Kempton) in a double 

Betfair is offering Bet £10 Get £10 on Racing Multis each weekend ahead of the Festival, and the multi that makes the most appeal this Saturday is a double consisting of Democracy Dilemma and Bad.

Democracy Dilemma, returning after a luckless trip to Meydan when withdrawn at the start, has proven form at Listed level and is an enticing prize, capable of making his presence felt in this sprint having run well at Lingfield in the past.

Bad, who is defending his title in the race, faces a stiffer test at the weights this time around but is a course specialist at Kempton and remains on a workable mark following a promising second at Ascot.

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Now read Paul Nicholls' preview of his Saturday runners and get his best chance

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