Winter Derby Big Race Verdict: Back Boiling Point to scoop the Lingfield pot

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Chancellor the Winter Derby Sportsbook favourite for Gosdens

The Winter Derby seems a race entirely without hyperbole and while Southwell will be staging its very own Battle Of Alexander At Issus on Friday night, I am happy to divert the gaze to a race that is very much a case of "feel the quality rather than quantity".

Five line up at Lingfield, but all five are rated in three-figures and two checking in past 110.

Chancellor, trained by John and Thady Gosden, won the Listed Tandridge Stakes last time at Southwell and heads the betting on the Sportsbook at 9/52.80.

Gosden, when he flew solo without Junior, won this three times on the spin with Wissahickon, Dubai Warrior and Forest Of Dean in years gone by, and Chancellor has the correct profile in terms of his age.

Burke form hot with Boiling Point

Karl Burke, now the anointed one for all of the late Shiekh Obaid horses, has a live contender in Boling Point, who actually holds a superior Timeform Rating of 131 to Chancellor's 130 here and is in form is so hot, you could singe the beard of the King Of Spain. 

Boiling Point is very much an unexposed sort on the All-Weather with just one start and his second spot in York's Group 3 Strensall Stakes (ahead of third placed 113-rated Skukuza) and the trainer's recent run is not to be sniffed at.

It was a brilliant race with both yellow liveries of Obaid in full flow at the end, King Of Cities won, but Boiling Point fought back hard, which took some doing down that long straight on the Knavesmire as he'd been keen enough early.

He actually improved his TF rating by 4lb with the Newmarket success subsequently, making all to win the Cambridgeshire on good to firm going. Making the running was very much the advantage that day.

His trainer is also going well with the hot run of four winners from his last 13 runners at 31%.

The contenders

The Gosdens also have Nebras in the race, a proven Lingfield 1m2f performer with a Listed Quebec Stakes in the bag. That was a very steadily-run contest with a race finishing speed of 112% - with Nebras controlling it from the front under Oisin Murphy.

The form doesn't look as strong as Chancellor's, nor Boiling Point's, but the CD form is an advantage.

Military Academy was well beaten behind Nebras last time and was an improved second in the Winter Derby Trial 21 days ago, in a field of three, the form is worth little.

James Fanshawe is 2-5 at 40% from the last two weeks and Sky Safari as a mare gets weight from the boys and she has a fabulous strike-rate on the All-Weather with a 5-6 record - losing her 100% strike-rate with a second in the Winter Oaks to that pesky Gosden.

She has a 2lb superior rating to Nebras at 123 to Nebras' figure of 121 and if the race becomes tactical, she does possess the pace to deal with a stop-start and then accelerate gallop. Her last three runs over 1m2f, 1m and 1m have seen finishing speeds of 111%, 106% and 106%.

Sire stats and who is best equipped with the 1m2f

Boiling Point tries the Lingfield surface for the first time, and with his sire Too Darn Hot, should be more than fine. Too Darn Hot has a 19% win rate at Lingfield and 38% placed over all distances, and over 1m2f he is 2-5 at 40%.

The numbers are not lying.

Chancellor's sire Kingman is 22% win and 40% placed across all distances at Lingfield from a massive 217 runners. His 1m2f record here is even better at 31% win and 55% placed.

Nebras, a Dubawi, has a sire record of 14% win and 36% placed from 264 runners and Sky Safari's sire Zoustar is an interesting AW stallion too, but maybe not at Lingfield as over 1m2f he is 0-7.

Trainer form and Lingfield records

John Gosden: 43-161 last five years at Lingfield 27%, 1-2 at 50% last 14 days.

Karl Burke: 1-4 this year at Lingfield 25%, 4-13 at 31% last 14 days.

James Fanshawe: 28-138 last five years at Lingfield 20%, 2-5 at 40% last 14 days.

Jane Chapple-Hyam: 1-4 at 25% last 14 days.

Alan Dudman's Verdict

Nebras and Military Academy can both lead, but Boiling Point is the fastest potentially as he ran 11.75 seconds at the 2f point at York. Chancellor was over 1m last time and ran the 2f in 11.53 seconds. Nebras' steadily run Lingfield win last time over 1m2f saw him record a 2f at a much slower 13.48 seconds.

Compare those times to Military Academy and just two rivals in the Winter Derby Trial, and his 2f time was 13.90.

Chancellor's form is at 1m and has to prove himself over 1m2f, and with Boiling Point perhaps a little quicker with more of a test, I can see Sam James running into the turn with a lead on the inside, just like at York and to produce a kick.

At 5/23.50, and on the Cambridgeshire win, he looks more of a bet.

Now read more tips and previews with Alan's Saturday Racing Multiple here!