Saturday Racing Cheat Sheet: Best bets and Paul Nicholls insight for Betfair Chase at Haydock

• Saturday Racing Cheat Sheet for Betfair Chase at Haydock day

• Tips from Daryl Carter, Kevin Blake and more

• Read Paul Nicholls' exclusive insight on his runners

• Place £10 bet on any sport on the Betfair Exchange to start your Free Bet Streak

• It's Safer Gambling Week - explore all the tools available to Betfair customers here

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Timeform Superboost

Grey Dawning is the favourite to win today's feature race, the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock (15:05). Dan Skelton's star has finished in the top three in all of his 12 completed starts, and today the Betfair Sportsbook are super-boosting his price to finish in the top three again from 2/51.40 to 1/12.00.

To take advantage of this super-boosted price just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

*Please Note: This superboost is promoted by the Betfair Sportsbook and not by any of our horse racing tipsters or writers.

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Ditcheat Decs... Listen to Paul Nicholls' thoughts on his Saturday runners now.

It's Betfair Chase day and Paul runs Bravemansgame in the Haydock centre piece.

While Pic D'orhy and Blueking D'oroux have the team excited at Ascot@BetfairBarry | @PFNicholls pic.twitter.com/FWTzaPUhch

-- Betfair Racing (@BetfairRacing) November 22, 2024

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Racing... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

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13:15 Haydock - Daryl Carter says: Beat The Bat is well handicapped

Daryl Carter: "The horse I am hoping is well handicapped is the returning Beat The Bat - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook. He makes his seasonal return from a 344-day absence, but he is a well-handicapped horse on the balance of his form, and he looks worth siding with to land this valuable pot.

"Harry Fry's runner went exceptionally well when fresh when narrowly denied by the now 137-rated chaser Masaccio at Chepstow last year. Hence, the absence is not a significant crisis. I hope he will be fit enough to see this out if it turns attritional.

"He landed a strong race at Ascot last year when powerful at the finish to deny Paul Nicholls' subsequent winner, Welcom To Cartries (130), with a Grade 3 winner back in fourth. He was unsuited by the drop back in trip when attempting to give seven pounds to Dysart Enos at Cheltenham.

"Dysart Enos has since finished a very creditable third in the Greatwood Hurdle and will indeed be rated close to 137 following that effort. His two-length defeat over a trip too short when attempting to give away seven pounds makes his handicap rating of 132 look very workable.

"This is a competitive race, and it's possibly best to focus on the unexposed horses. Kamsinas (won't want the ground turning bottomless), Knight Of Allen is interesting, but Steel Ally can give the selection the most to think about. Still, it's no coincidence that Beat The Bat returns in this valuable race, and Harry Fry has a good record of targeting races with horses fresh from a break. 11/43.75 or bigger is acceptable."

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13:30 Ascot - Paul Nicholls says: Pic D'Orhy fit and ready in 1965 Chase title defence

Paul Nicholls: "He has a great record on his first run of the season, excels at Ascot and returns there looking to win this Grade 2 Chase for the second year running.

"The ground was a bit quicker than ideal for him that day and he will be much happier with conditions at Ascot this time. This looks an ideal race for Pic d'Orhy who has been working tidily at home and has a big chance.

"He's brilliant fresh and has a big chance of winning this race again."

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13:50 Haydock - Mark Milligan says: Iroko my bet of the weekend

Mark Milligan: "I'm a big fan of the Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero training partnership, and they could have themselves a genuine Grand National contender in the shape of Iroko, who's still unexposed over fences after just three starts.

"A progressive hurdler in the 2022/23 season, Iroko rattled off a hat-trick culminating with success in the Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival before finishing third at Aintree on his final start over the smaller obstacles.

"He made a winning chasing debut at Warwick last season and went on to finish a fine second in Grade 1 company the last time we saw him, that again coming at Aintree.

"Connections are on record as saying they don't want to do too much damage to his current handicap mark of 152 with the National in mind, but it's highly possible he could take this race without invoking the handicapper into particularly drastic action.

"With just six going to post - and a couple of them returning from very long layoffs - this looks a contest that probably won't take a great deal of winning.

"Versatile as regards trip/ground, I make Iroko one of the best bets on a busy Saturday."

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14:10 Punchestown - Alan Dudman says: State Man to prove too good for Morgiana rivals

Alan Dudman: "For all Lossiemouth appears riotously talented, State Man has a raffish air about him. He doesn't have the thrills of Constitution Hill - but then who does? State Man is clever little toad - sound and economic with his jumping and straightforward in terms of taking a lead.

"Brigtherdaysahead could well set the pace here although Daddy Long Legs made all to win and a 16L beating of Smooth Tom at Tipperary last month. State Man should sit second or third with Lossiemouth watching his every move.

"While it's tempting to go after the shiny new thing, State Man's record in the race is not to be sniffed out and while unoriginal, I wouldn't exactly want to lay him at 4/61.67."

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14:30 Haydock - Timeform says: One Big Bang is clear on Timeform adjusted ratings

Timeform: "One Big Bang failed to win in Ireland but showed improved form to justify strong support in a handicap hurdle over this course and distance in March on his first start for James Owen, staying on strongly to score by eight lengths.

"He then had little trouble following up in a novice hurdle at Uttoxeter on his final start of the campaign, but impressed with how readily he brushed aside his main rival, winning with more in hand than the margin of two and a quarter lengths would suggest.

"One Big Bang was unable to complete the hat-trick on his return in a novice hurdle at Newton Abbot last month, but he ran his best race yet trying to give away a lot of weight over a trip shorter than ideal. He steps back up in trip and returns to handicap company on a good mark - he's 3 lb clear on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings."

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14:45 Ascot - Daryl Carter says: Thunder Rock my best bet of the day

Daryl Carter: "A competitive renewal of the Grade 2 Howden Ascot Hurdle and the speedy Mares Novice winner Golden Ace warrants plenty of respect, but Lucky Place is certainly weighted in reversing the form.

"Still, Thunder Rock - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - gets the vote to come out on top.

"Olly Muprhy's eight-year-old reverts to hurdles and was well fancied for his intended engagement at Wetherby before the fast ground saw him a non-runner three weeks ago. Today is a slightly shorter trip, but he makes plenty of appeal, given he ended last season with a career-best over fences in Listed company over the subsequent Old Roan winner. He is officially rated 156 in the chasing sphere and 149 over hurdles. However, he only had six hurdle starts and finished like a progressive horse, so it's worth treating him as good as his chase rating. That means he comes out on top of the figures in this contest and well clear of last year's winner, Blueking d'Oroux, who must give him six pounds.

"Furthermore, when returning to the track fresh, his record reads 112 over obstacles, and he is a course winner over fences in excellent fashion. His right-handed record reads 211111 outside of graded company, and his record in small fields with eight or fewer runners reads 01212331111111212 in his career. Under today's conditions, it would be highly disappointing if he could not run to at least a low 150, which would give him the win.

"Throw in that he should still be treated as an unexposed horse in this sphere, and everything adds up to him being a bet with any rain likely to turn this into the stamina test he wants. Olly Murphy was a narrow second in this race last year with Strong Leader, but I expect this horse to prove much more suited to the test.

"Lucky Place is the biggest threat, but there was talk of him going over fences this season, and he was well held on his seasonal return last year, so this is possibly a prep?

"Back the selection at 3/14.00 or bigger."

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15:05 Haydock - Kevin Blake says: Royale Pagaille can land back to back renewals of Betfair Chase

Kevin Blake: "One contender whose connections are unlikely to be looking a minute beyond this race is the Venetia Williams-trained Royale Pagaille. While he is a 10-year-old, Royale Pagaille was a relatively late bloomer, not running a Grade 1 until he was seven. Since entering his prime, he has shown himself to be a high-class performer, with most of his very best efforts having come at this track, particularly when the ground was at least soft.

"Given the affinity he has shown for this track and for the soft conditions that often prevail in it, his connections made this race a big target for him last season and he duly delivered on his seasonal return, beating Bravemansgame by 6½ lengths in it.

"His connections are once again very likely to have left no stone unturned to have him as ready as they can for this contest. With the rain looking very likely to arrive just in time for the race, he now looks likely to get his favoured conditions. As well as that, he has shown tactical versatility in the past and if the leaders go as strongly as it seems they might, he can be ridden with a bit of patience to best adapt to that scenario.

"All told, Royal Pagaille looks to be a solid proposition in conditions that are sure to suit him in a race that he is likely to have been heavily aimed towards. The same cannot be said for most of his main rivals and that makes him the most appealing selection."

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15:40 Haydock - Paul Nicholls says: Take Your Time weighted to go well

Paul Nicholls: "He won three times over fences last season, stays very well and is suited by a real slog in deep ground. So if they get the rain that's forecast he will be in his element.

"He starts this season on a career high mark of 126 and is up in class but he goes well fresh and with Freddie Gingell claiming a handy 3lbs he has a nice light racing weight."

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