Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: All systems go for another Morgiana win for State Man

• Eight in the field for Saturday's star-studded race

• Mullins has won 12 of the last 13 renewals

• Alan Dudman cannot see beyond State Man for a three-peat

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Timeform Superboost

Grey Dawning is the favourite to win today's feature race, the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock (15:05). Dan Skelton's star has finished in the top three in all of his 12 completed starts, and today the Betfair Sportsbook are super-boosting his price to finish in the top three again from 2/51.40 to 1/12.00.

To take advantage of this super-boosted price just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Morgiana betting - and a tale of two halves

Dubbed the race of the season already in some quarters, the Morgiana Hurdle kicks off a fabulous weekend of jumps' racing in Ireland and I cannot quibble with the pre-race billing at all, although with the ground wreaking havoc so far, it's very much a case of "faute de mieux".

Straight into the nuts and bolts of the betting, and while eight are declared, it's very much a lop-sided market and a "game of two halves" in football parlance with State Man at 4/61.67, Lossiemouth at 2/13.00 and Brighterdaysahead chalked up at 4s - it's 33/134.00 bar.

Rain is forecast for Saturday and Ireland have been in the grip of some rotten weather this week with Thurles scraping their inspection despite the dusting of snow. It's yielding at the time of writing so we have to be basing any bet or thinking on soft-ish ground.

Lossiemouth to stake a Champion Hurdle claim

The sheer Morgiana Hurdle hegemony from Willie Mullins is frightening - and those backing his past alumni in this race wouldn't have had a moment's distress. It's some roll of honour.

Hurricane Fly won it three times, Sharjah has won it twice, so has Nichols Canyon and State Man and Mullins is responsible for 12 of the past 13 winners.

Mullins runs Lossiemouth against State Man for Saturday and whether their paths will cross again in the Champion Hurdle in March we'll see.

Lossiemouth is joint-favourite for the Champion Hurdle alongside Constitution Hill at 5/23.50 with State Man at 3/14.00 on the Sportsbook, with Lossiemouth also at 5/23.50 for the Mares' Hurdle with Brigtherdaysahead the same price. Mullins surely won't pull anymore rabbits out of the hat.

I'd personally love to see Lossiemouth as a Champion Hurdle runner but bravery is never an option it seems in this game as the currency is Cheltenham winners, and as she sauntered to victory in the Mares' last year (with a back up 7L win at the Punchestown festival), State Man has a prime opponent.

She won first-time out last season, admittedly she started late, although with a win record of eight from nine, it's all rather pointless talking about the fresh and first time angle. She just wins.

Lossiemouth I imagine will be held up although she was more prominently ridden at Punchestown, and with the mares' allowance it has to bring into the equation Brighterdaysahead.

Gordon Elliott was rampant last weekend with five winners on the Navan card and a million runners in the Troytown on Sunday and his rookie mare has race-fitness on her side with a win in the Grade 3 Bottlegreen at Down Royal three weeks ago. Elliott has her entered in the Fighting Fifth and the Hatton's Grace, so they might be thinking about campaigning the Mares' Novices' Hurdle second from the Fez into Champion Hurdle category.

Avoid Constitution Hill though - who remains a star in exile.

Brigtherdaysahead wasn't particularly impressive at Down Royal and the form wasn't up to much with King Of Kingsfield in second - a horse you wouldn't mind facing in a battle and is soft in a finish as a high tog quilt.

Daddy Long Legs was third at Down Royal and offered little in the finish too, but Brighterdaysahead wasn't particularly fluent jumping over the last two - and her final hurdle was a mess as she stumbled and hit the top. There is no way she can afford to do that at the top level considering the crack two milers don't spend anytime in the air.

On her Cheltenham defeat to Golden Ace last season in bottomless ground, she wasn't exactly finishing strongly there, with the west country mare travelling all over her in the straight. On that run does she beat State Man? I think not.

She is fit, though.

Claims of State Man easy to make a case for at 4/61.67

"Townend yet to twitch" were the words used by commentator Stewart Machin calling State Man's Champion Hurdle success back in March - and once Townend twitched, State Man shrugged off the challenge of Irish Point to land the Tuesday Blue Riband.

With Luccia in third in the Champion Hurdle rated 140, it was a poor renewal, but you can only beat what's in front of you and this is State Man's race with two previous wins.

Patrick Mullins rides Lossiemouth and State Man renews friendship with twitchy Townend, and while I am not one with ears as to who rides who at Closutton involving the selection process, I wonder if it was ever going to be an option for Townend on the mare?

Watching last year's Morgiana with just four rivals, State Man was ridden in second off the pace-setter and down to the straight when Echoes In Rain briefly threatened on the outside, he accelerated ever so quickly into the final hurdle for a 5L win.

This year's race is deeper for sure, but State Man's one burst seems to be a hallmark of his wins.

The best of the outsiders

With three places up for grabs, it's easy to put a line through Sir Gerhard who was 24L behind State Man at Punchestown, while Daddy Long Legs needs to grow a few more limbs to even figure on recent form.

Likewise Winter Fog who was beaten 6L by Daddy Long Legs at Tipperary in October.

Conclusion and pace

For all Lossiemouth appears riotously talented, State Man has a raffish air about him. He doesn't have the thrills of Constitution Hill - but then who does? State Man is clever little toad - sound and economic with his jumping and straightforward in terms of taking a lead.

Brigtherdaysahead could well set the pace here although Daddy Long Legs made all to win and a 16L beating of Smooth Tom at Tipperary last month. State Man should sit second or third with Lossiemouth watching his every move.

While it's tempting to go after the shiny new thing, State Man's record in the race is not to be sniffed out and while unoriginal, I wouldn't exactly want to lay him at 4/61.67.

Now read the latest column from Paul Nicholls on his weekend runners here!