Daryl Carter's Tips: 5/1 Thunder can rock Ascot rivals, plus Skelton Dawns on Haydock

• Grey Dawning is the stand-out in a thrilling Betfair Chase

• Beat The Bat handicapped to go very well

• Thunder Rock can land Ascot Hurdle with an excellent record fresh

• Place £10 bet on any sport on the Betfair Exchange to start your Free Bet Streak

• It's Safer Gambling Week - explore all the tools available to Betfair customers here

---

Timeform Superboost

Grey Dawning is the favourite to win today's feature race, the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock (15:05). Dan Skelton's star has finished in the top three in all of his 12 completed starts, and today the Betfair Sportsbook are super-boosting his price to finish in the top three again from 2/51.40 to 1/12.00.

To take advantage of this super-boosted price just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

*Please Note: This superboost is promoted by the Betfair Sportsbook and not by any of our horse racing tipsters or writers.

---

Ditcheat Decs... Listen to Paul Nicholls' thoughts on his Saturday runners now.

It's Betfair Chase day and Paul runs Bravemansgame in the Haydock centre piece.

While Pic D'orhy and Blueking D'oroux have the team excited at Ascot@BetfairBarry | @PFNicholls pic.twitter.com/FWTzaPUhch

-- Betfair Racing (@BetfairRacing) November 22, 2024

---

Racing... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

---

Heavy rain is due at Haydock on Saturday, which could mean the card's look at race time will be entirely changed. Unfortunately, I must submit this column early as I have a Lucinda Russel-type journey to Haydock on Friday.

---

13:15 Haydock - Back Beat The Bat @ 7/24.50 1pt

The horse I am hoping is well handicapped is the returning Beat The Bat - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook. He makes his seasonal return from a 344-day absence, but he is a well-handicapped horse on the balance of his form, and he looks worth siding with to land this valuable pot.

Harry Fry's runner went exceptionally well when fresh when narrowly denied by the now 137-rated chaser Masaccio at Chepstow last year. Hence, the absence is not a significant crisis. I hope he will be fit enough to see this out if it turns attritional.

He landed a strong race at Ascot last year when powerful at the finish to deny Paul Nicholls' subsequent winner, Welcom To Cartries (130), with a Grade 3 winner back in fourth. He was unsuited by the drop back in trip when attempting to give seven pounds to Dysart Enos at Cheltenham.

Dysart Enos has since finished a very creditable third in the Greatwood Hurdle and will indeed be rated close to 137 following that effort. His two-length defeat over a trip too short when attempting to give away seven pounds makes his handicap rating of 132 look very workable.

This is a competitive race, and it's possibly best to focus on the unexposed horses. Kamsinas (won't want the ground turning bottomless), Knight Of Allen is interesting, but Steel Ally can give the selection the most to think about. Still, it's no coincidence that Beat The Bat returns in this valuable race, and Harry Fry has a good record of targeting races with horses fresh from a break. 11/43.75 or bigger is acceptable.

---

13:50 Haydock - Back Iroko @ BSP 1pt

It's never nice to hear connections of a horse say, "We'll work back from that [Grand National], but it's going to be tricky because he's had only three runs over fences, and we want to get some experience into him without affecting his mark too much".

Still, Iroko lines up in this Graduation Chase against horses rated 144 and lower. That should mean his mark will not be affected too much should he land this race (unless he coasts home by 20 lengths), and they will surely want to get off to a winning start with him.

He is undoubtedly a top-class horse, and his run at Aintree behind his owner mate, Iknowtheurthinking, pointed to that being the case. That is a form line we have already used to good effect this season with Heart Wood and Chianti Classico. Iroko finished ahead of that pair and stuck on well at the finish. The figures that race produced were electric, and he should be a class above today's rivals being total value for more than his rating of 152 (more like 157).

Iroko should have no issue with moving slightly down in distance, given this is a test down the home straight, and stamina will come into play should the rain arrive. He made a seamless winning return from a similar break at Warwick (2m4f) in November, and his record following a break reads 511114.

He is entirely unexposed over fences and holds easily the best form in the race. Outside of Grade 1 company, he is unbeaten over the middle distance trip. Provided they are not playing around with him, he should take all the beating in here, and 7/42.75 or bigger is a fair price, but use BSP. Admittedly, I have had to curb my enthusiasm, but now is the time to catch him, hoping they look to hunt around for the rest of the season. Trelawn - a long-term fancy of mine for the Ultima Handicap at the festival - is the chief threat with a good record fresh but he and Tahmuras are not straightforward.

---

14:30 Haydock - Gwennie May Boy @ 14/115.00 1pt e/w (5 places)

The rain could scupper a few chances in here should the heavy downpour turn this into a stiff test. For that reason, it may be worth siding with the upwardly mobile and versatile Gwennie May Boy - 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

The six-year-old improved with every outing last term and ended his season with an excellent victory at Aintree in the Grade 3 Handicap by seven lengths over a good field. His time figure married up well to the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle on the same card, and he must be ahead of the handicapper despite an 11 lb rise. The Skelton horse was quoted as being targeted at this race, and he looks overpriced, considering his form has worked out at every turn.

On his seasonal debut last term, he comfortably beat his shorter-priced stablemate Catch Him Derry at Bangor, giving him 11lbs, and his form has been enhanced since. There's no getting away from his performance at Aintree. It was excellent, and he should be well suited to this test. He is proven on heavy ground and first time out, so he must go well. This is a very deep race, and he looks overpriced at any double-figure odds.

Another to consider in this race is Push The Button 16/117.00, who should appreciate a stiff stamina test if it gets very deep. He may be a play before the off, but I'm holding off for now with unknown conditions. However, a win-only saver may be advised closer to race time, but I will update you on Twitter.

---

14:45 Ascot - Back Thunder Rock @ 5/16.00 2pt

A competitive renewal of the Grade 2 Howden Ascot Hurdle and the speedy Mares Novice winner Golden Ace warrants plenty of respect, but Lucky Place is certainly weighted in reversing the form.

Still, Thunder Rock - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - gets the vote to come out on top.

Olly Muprhy's eight-year-old reverts to hurdles and was well fancied for his intended engagement at Wetherby before the fast ground saw him a non-runner three weeks ago. Today is a slightly shorter trip, but he makes plenty of appeal, given he ended last season with a career-best over fences in Listed company over the subsequent Old Roan winner. He is officially rated 156 in the chasing sphere and 149 over hurdles. However, he only had six hurdle starts and finished like a progressive horse, so it's worth treating him as good as his chase rating. That means he comes out on top of the figures in this contest and well clear of last year's winner, Blueking d'Oroux, who must give him six pounds.

Furthermore, when returning to the track fresh, his record reads 112 over obstacles, and he is a course winner over fences in excellent fashion. His right-handed record reads 211111 outside of graded company, and his record in small fields with eight or fewer runners reads 01212331111111212 in his career. Under today's conditions, it would be highly disappointing if he could not run to at least a low 150, which would give him the win.

Throw in that he should still be treated as an unexposed horse in this sphere, and everything adds up to him being a bet with any rain likely to turn this into the stamina test he wants. Olly Murphy was a narrow second in this race last year with Strong Leader, but I expect this horse to prove much more suited to the test.

Lucky Place is the biggest threat, but there was talk of him going over fences this season, and he was well held on his seasonal return last year, so this is possibly a prep?

Back the selection at 3/14.00 or bigger.

---

15:05 Haydock - Back Grey Dawning @ BSP 1pt

You can make a case for all of these in this contest, and outside of Grey Dawning, it is challenging to like one without the other.

Capodanno beat Ahoy Senor, Royale Pagaille, and The Real Whacker at Cheltenham comfortably last year, but he is hardly the most reliable sort, and his reappearance record is not good. Hewick holds the most substantial form claims to this throne, but the impending rain will concern his backers. Should the downpour stay away, he has his chances. Harry Cobden has now deserted Bravemansgame, and his new blinkers will have to work the oracle, but he looks like a horse on the downgrade; Gold Tweet is rated 138 and is hard to fancy.

Limerick Lace is in against the boys, which makes life tough for her, but she is respected at this 3m distance and has a good record first time out.

Royal Pagaille is the most popular horse in the market and among pundits as every jumps on. He has an excellent record here, and he will love any rain that falls, making him the obvious possible answer. However, he did suffer a fracture in the Cotswold Chase when we last saw him, and he is now ten years old. Although this may be his "gold cup", he is slow. Still, I don't think he is as good a horse as Grey Dawning.

Grey Dawning has his negatives, too. However, there is so much upside to his profile, and the move up in his trip will prove a stern avenue for improvement. Dan Skelton has had this race as his target all year, and confidence can be taken that he decided not to run in the suitable Colin Parker at Carlisle and instead have a racecourse gallop. Yes, this is his seasonal return, and he is yet to win the first time out, but last year was no more than an educational run behind Stay Away Fay on his first chase start, so it's difficult to suggest he doesn't go well fresh with such limited evidence and this is not a deep division.

He is the only horse in the field firmly on the upgrade, and his victory here last year in the Graduation Chase is fresh in memory and a big asset. He has already run into the mid-160s, and the same may be good enough to win this. I expect the market to ease him, so back him at BSP.

---

15:20 Ascot - Back Martator @ 9/43.25 2pt

Martator--9/43.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook--is well worth keeping on side following his romp here 21 days ago. Under the same conditions, up just six pounds--five of that negotiated by his talented claimer Ned Fox--he makes plenty of appeal to go in again.

Venetia Williams habitually backs horses up for double success at Ascot. This is another I expect to land. The progressive seven-year-old always offered promise but came into himself at the back end of last year, landing three races, and he has started the season off on the same progressive thread.

Watching back his course and distance win last time, he quickly went past the runner-up, third and fourth inside the final hundred yards and was merely pushed out to win. That was a more competitive race than this one, and I see no reason why he can't make it 3-3 at this Ascot venue with any rain, no concern at all.

If an easy lead is allowed, Sans Bruit is perhaps the biggest threat, but the selection has plenty more to offer and optimal conditions.
9/43.25 or bigger is acceptable.

---

Daryl's Podcast Selections:

- 13:15 Haydock: Beat The Bat
- 13:30 Ascot: Pic D'Orhy
- 14:10 Punchestown: Lossiemouth
- 14:30 Haydock: Gwennie May Boy
- 14;45 Ascot: Thunder Rock
- 15;05 Haydock: Grey Dawning
- 15:20 Ascot: Martator

---

Now Read: More Horse Racing tips here.

---