Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Royale Pagaille can land back-to-back Betfair Chases

• Kevin Blake previews the Betfair Chase

• Proven Royale Pagaile gets the nod in title defence

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Timeform Superboost

Grey Dawning is the favourite to win today's feature race, the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock (15:05). Dan Skelton's star has finished in the top three in all of his 12 completed starts, and today the Betfair Sportsbook are super-boosting his price to finish in the top three again from 2/51.40 to 1/12.00.

To take advantage of this super-boosted price just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

*Please Note: This superboost is promoted by the Betfair Sportsbook and not by any of our horse racing tipsters or writers.

Ditcheat Decs... Listen to Paul Nicholls' thoughts on his Saturday runners now.

It's Betfair Chase day and Paul runs Bravemansgame in the Haydock centre piece.

While Pic D'orhy and Blueking D'oroux have the team excited at Ascot@BetfairBarry | @PFNicholls pic.twitter.com/FWTzaPUhch

-- Betfair Racing (@BetfairRacing) November 22, 2024

Watch Saturday's Racing... Only Bettor!

20th Renewal of the Betfair Chase

It's hard to believe that we are about to see the 20^th running of the Betfair Chase. It started in 2005 in a blaze of publicity as the first leg of the newly-formed Betfair Million. Those early renewals produced many memorable contests, with the incomparable Kauto Star winning four editions of it between 2006 and 2011. Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card and Bristol De Mai won seven renewals between them, with the last-named performer producing one of the most visually memorable performances of the time when beating Cue Card by 57 lengths in the 2017 renewal.

This Saturday's field is particularly deep and competitive. Time will tell how it will rank in the history of the race, but one thing for sure is that pre-race it represents a properly competitive Grade 1 that makes appeal as an attractive betting race.

Before getting into the race, it's important to consider the likely ground conditions. At the time of writing, the ground is good, good-to-soft in places, but the curse of Haydock looms large as the correlation between racing there and deluges of rain strikes all too regularly and the current forecast is not looking kind.

Light showers are forecast on Friday, but proper rain is due to land on Saturday. Forecast amounts range from 11mm to over 20mm, so it is serious stuff. If that sort of rain duly lands, the ground will turn towards testing, which has made this race a real slog in the past.

Betfair Chase pace map

As always, we'll have a look at the likely pace picture of the race to see what run style may or may not be favoured on the day. In short, there is quite a bit of potential pace on paper. The Real Whacker, Bravemansgame and Hewick tend to make the running or race prominently, with The Real Whacker being the most regular front runner of the three.

Ahoy Senor has tended to race prominently or push the pace, but was dropped in on his return to action at Aintree. He could well return to positive tactics with that run under his belt back over this longer trip. All of this should combine to ensure that this is a well-run race. If the ground comes up as soft as it could, it could turn this into a right slog.

While it is sorely tempting to side with one of the younger, more progressive contenders, one can't help but feel that this will be treated as a starting point for many of them. The potential for testing conditions changes the game in terms of how much their connections might be willing to sacrifice to win this race with other targets such as the King George VI Chase not that far around the corner.

Royale Pagaille can land back to back renewals of the Grade 1

7

Royale Pagaille (Fr)

• J: Charlie Deutsch
• T: Venetia Williams
• F:

One contender whose connections are unlikely to be looking a minute beyond this race is the Venetia Williams-trained Royale Pagaille. While he is a 10-year-old, Royale Pagaille was a relatively late bloomer, not running a Grade 1 until he was seven. Since entering his prime, he has shown himself to be a high-class performer, with most of his very best efforts having come at this track, particularly when the ground was at least soft.

Given the affinity he has shown for this track and for the soft conditions that often prevail in it, his connections made this race a big target for him last season and he duly delivered on his seasonal return, beating Bravemansgame by 6½ lengths in it.

His connections are once again very likely to have left no stone unturned to have him as ready as they can for this contest. With the rain looking very likely to arrive just in time for the race, he now looks likely to get his favoured conditions. As well as that, he has shown tactical versatility in the past and if the leaders go as strongly as it seems they might, he can be ridden with a bit of patience to best adapt to that scenario.

All told, Royal Pagaille looks to be a solid proposition in conditions that are sure to suit him in a race that he is likely to have been heavily aimed towards. The same cannot be said for most of his main rivals and that makes him the most appealing selection.

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