Golf Bets

Golf Tips: Our experts' best bets for the Sony Open and Dubai Invitational

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
British golfer Matt Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick is among the contenders for this week's Sony Open

It's the first two event week of 2024 so get the best bets for the Sony Open and Dubai Invitational from Steve Rawlings, Dave Tindall and more experts...

  • 28/129.00 for another Kirk win is too good to ignore

  • 33/134.00 Rose's course form makes him e-w bet

  • 50/151.00 FRL bet Putnam gives punters lots to like

Sony Open Tips and Predictions

Sony Open: Kirk value to emulate Ernie and Justin at 28/1

Steve Rawlings: "A recent win looks a good pointer given five of the last nine winners had won earlier in the wraparound season and historically, this has been an excellent event for big-priced winners too, but previous course experience has still been almost essential.

"The 2018 winner, Kizzire, who missed the cut in his only previous visit (in 2016) and Russell Henley, who won here 11 years ago in his first PGA Tour event, are the only winners since 1996 not to have played Waialae Country Club at least twice previously and Henley was the first winner in his 20s here since Paul Stankowski way back in 1997 so look to the more experienced stars...

"My only pre-event pick at less than 100/1 is last week's winner, Kirk. It's never easy to win back-to-back but the 38-year-old was ridiculously impressive last week, and this venue is far more suitable to his skillset.

"He's a winner of the RSM Classic, he's also won at Colonial, and he has two seconds, a third, and a fifth placed finish here already so the industry-wide best of 28/1 available with the Sportsbook, with eight places up for grabs, looks too good to ignore."

Back Chris Kirk each-way @ 28/1

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Sony Open 2024 Each-way Tips: Picks from 20/1 to 66/1

Dave Tindall: "Justin Rose has form here at Waialae of 20-MC-12-13-2 although that was built in 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2017.

"That second place on his most recent appearance in 2017 featured a pair of 64s in rounds two and four while he ranked in the top 25 for every Strokes Gained category.

"The former US Open winner's last two victories on the PGA Tour have come early on the West Coast - Pebble last year and the 2019 Farmers - so this looks a good time to catch him.

"As for the key metric of 150-175 yards, he ranked 13th in that category in the season just gone. And in correlating course news, Rose is a former winner at Colonial (2018), added a third there in 2020 and was 12th at the famed Texas venue last May. Still feeling some afterglow from the Ryder Cup, Rose is a bet at 33s."

Back Justin Rose each-way @ 33/1

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Sony Open in Hawaii 2024: Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "A number of those who competed at Kapalua have remained in Hawaii for this week's state open. Among them is The Sentry's champion Chris Kirk 28/1 whose record at Waialae is strong. The 38-year-old from Tennessee has stood on the podium three times, including 2021 and 2023.

"Last season's Open champion at Royal Liverpool, Brian Harman 18/1, has played well since late June and he opened 2024 with a tie-for-fifth on Sunday.

"Korean Byeong Hun An 33/1, who tied-12th on his Waialae debut last year, finished fourth at Kapalua having not played competitively since last August. Golfers from the Far East have won this tournament in each of the past two years."

Byeony Hun An @ 33/134.00

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Sony Open First-Round Leader Tips: Three Selections from 50/1 to 80/1

Dave Tindall: "The theory this week is to look at players who managed a low one on similarly slow Bermuda greens at The Sentry last week as well as having some history of shooting the lights out here at Waialae. The forecast suggests wind so handling that also comes into play.

"I'll start with Andrew Putnam, who got better each day at The Sentry, shooting 74-71-67-64. The American has twice carded a 62 on this week's course, the first of those 8-under rounds coming in 2019 and the second on day three last year.

"In those two events he went on to finish runner-up (he was second after 18 holes) and fourth so it's clearly a venue he relishes coming to. Putnam also closed with a 62 in his final PGA Tour round of 2023 (World Wide Technology Championship) and is a good wind player too.

"Add in the fact that he's twice (2018 and 2023) been third after day one at correlating Colonial and there's plenty to like about the 50/1 shot who tees off from the 1st at 08.10 local."

Back Andrew Putnam each-way @ 50/1

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Dubai Invitiational Tips and Predictions

Dubai Invitational: Prolific Pole chanced at 20/1

Steve Rawlings: "World number two, Rory McIlroy, is the understandably short favourite. He's a fine links exponent with a great record in this part of the world but I'm happy to swerve him at just 3/1.

"He tends to play well in his first start of the year but last year's victory in the Dubai Desert Classic was the only occasion that he's got off to a winning start.

"I'll be looking at the state of play closely after round one and I'll be concentrating hard on the early leaders, so I wasn't in a rush to side with anyone before the off but the prolific Dubai-based Pole, Adrian Meronk, has drifted to a backable price at 20/1 on the exchange.

"Although yet to win in the region, Meronk has a decent bank of desert golf form, and he was beaten in a playoff at the Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge on the Challenge Tour back in 2017."

Back Adrian Meronk @ 21.0

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Dubai Invitational Each-Way Tip: Ferguson can get off to a flier

Matt Cooper: "At first glance Ewen Ferugson had a flat end to 2023, going MC-WD in South Africa but on both occasions he was suffering from migraines so I prefer to be reminded of his performance in the DP World Tour Championship which preceded it when he was ninth (and headed into the final round just three blows back of the lead).

"He'd told The Scotsman (correspondent Martin Dempster is always an excellent source of player info) ahead of that week that he was excited about his chances because he is now, like Fleetwood and Meronk, a Dubai resident.

"He was a two-time winner on the circuit in 2022 (including in the Middle East) and last year added consistency with 12 top 20s (five of them in a row before the migraines). With a flat test and lots of water I also like that he was the 54-hole leader at Le Golf National last year and also fourth at The Belfry."

Back Ewen Ferguson each-way @ 40/1

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Find Me a 100 Winner: Pablo looks overpriced at 150/1

Steve Rawlings: "It's now ten years since Pablo Larrazabal finished just one stroke ahead of Rory and Phil Mickelson to claim the Abu Dhabi Championship title in his first outing of the year and that remains his biggest success to date.

"That was his third of nine DP World Tour titles, so the amiable Spaniard is considerably more prolific that many of his peers and he looks over-priced here at 150.0.

"Having just turned 40, and with a baby on the way, Larrazabal is likely to be focused and raring to go this week and given he's looking to win his fifth title since March 2022, and that he's a winner in the region, I was more than happy to chance him at such a juicy price."

Back Pablo Larrazabal (2us) @ 150.0

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Dubai Invitational 2024: Form stats

Andy Swales: "'Top seed' Rory McIlroy 3/1 has spent plenty of time in this part of the world, with five of his 16 DP World Tour wins arriving in Dubai. Both Hojgaard twins have enjoyed teeing-up here, particularly Nicolai 12/1 who is a two-time winner in the region.

"The 22-year-old Dane won the prestigious DP World Tour Championship in November, when he finished two shots clear of joint runners-up Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland and Matt Wallace.

"Adri Arnaus 125/1 is another player with solid form in the Gulf States. Although a highly-unlikely winner this week, the Spaniard has posted eight 'Euro Tour' top-12s in the Middle East since the start of 2020.

"He also stood on the podium when competing in the Saudi International, which was part of the Asian Tour in 2022."

Adri Arnaus @ 125/1126.00

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Now Read Steve Rawlings' in-play blog for the latest betting news from both events


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.