Golf Bets

Golf Tips: Best bets for Sanderson Farms and Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Rory McIlroy at the US Open
One of our tipsters is backing Rory McIlroy to win the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

Get the best bets for this week's Sanderson Farms Championship and Alfred Dunhill Links Championship from Steve Rawlings, Dave Tindall and more experts who try to find the value and pick winners on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour...

  • Taylor Moore gets the Punter's money at 54/155.00

  • Norlander backed to flourish in Mississippi at 60/161.00

  • McIlroy deserves to be favourite at Alfred Dunhill

  • Hoffman backed to make a strong start at 55/156.00

  • Course info, form and outsiders to back at 199/1200.00


Sanderson Farms Championship Tips and Predictions

The Punter's Preview: Moore the only play in Mississippi at 54/1

Steve Rawlings: "Now that it's a standalone event, the calibre of the winners may increase over time and the last four results appear to back that up slightly.

"Prior to Sergio's success four years ago, all six course winners had far more experience on the Korn Ferry Tour than on the PGA Tour, so whether young or old, looking to recently graduated Korn Ferry Tour players looks a good angle in.

"Prior to five years ago, Luke Donald was the only player from outside the States and Canada to win this title in more than 50 years. That's changing but players from the southern states do particularly well in this event as a rule.

"List was born in Seattle, Washington but now resides in Sea Island, Georgia and Ryan Armour comes from Ohio, so he's a bit further north. But the 2021 winner, Burns, is from Louisiana, Gribble comes from Texas and the 2015 winner, Peter Malnati, is from Tennessee, where he won on the Korn Ferry Tour.

"Although Burns went off favourite three years ago, this has been a good event for outsiders. The first four course winners all went off at triple-figure prices and the next three winners were fairly unfancied too, going off at around 70.0...

"Taylor Moore's only victory to date was at the Valspar Championship two years ago, an event won this year by Peter Malnati, who won here in 2015, and back-to-back in 2021 and 2022 by the 2021 SFC winner Sam Burns. Whether we can class that as a strong course correlation or not is debatable, but Moore has form at plenty of other tracks that connect.

"He's finished inside the top-five at Sedgefield, Detroit and Victoria National previously and whilst he isn't in the best of form at present, he finished 12th in the US PGA Championship earlier in the year and he was 10th at the 3M Open just three starts ago."

Each-way picks from 30/1 to 60/1

Dave Tindall: "The 37-year-old Henrik Norlander, who went to Augusta State and still lives near the Masters venue, has ridiculously good form here having finished fourth in both 2020 and 2021 before his joint-second last year. A 24th in 2022 wasn't bad either.

"Explaining that stellar course record, last year, Norlander said: "I've lived in Augusta for the last 16 years. We play a lot of the same grass. It sort of feels like home.

"'I think from Steve Jent, the tournament director, to the superintendent, they do everything right here. They always take care of us, and the golf course, it's hard to say there's any golf course on tour that's in better shape.'

"Norlander came into the tournament last year on the back of form reading MC-MC-57-MC so clearly came alive again at a course he loves. He returns there in 2024 in far better shape which has to bode well.

"Norlander had a pair of top 12s in July at the Barracuda Championship and 3M Open and he also popped over to his native Europe in early September to finish eighth in the European Masters at Crans.

"He ranked 1st for SG: Tee to Green in Switzerland and 5th for Approach while he was 1st for SG: Around The Green at the Procore Championship the following week. The putter is a little cool but he's performed well in the past on these Bermuda greens, ranking 4th for SGP last year and 6th in 2020 so let's hope he flourishes again."

First-Round Leader Tips: Picks from 55/1 to 100/1

Dave Tindall: "Charley Hoffman wasn't too far off making my staking plan in the outright preview but this looks a good way to get the Californian onside.

"Hoffman has already been there and done it in terms of leading this event on day one. That came in 2020 when his opening 64 saw him set the pace and pave the way for a top six finish. The 47-year-old also shot a 64 in round two the year before while he's opened 69 and 68 in his last two visits.

"Hoffman is in good form again thanks to a couple of top 12s in his last five tournaments: eighth at the Barracuda and 12th in the Wyndham Championship. And he's been starting fast too. He was the first-round leader (65) at Colonial in May, second after 18 holes at April's Corales Puntacana (66) and in his last two starts he's ended day one in fourth (64, Wyndham) and ninth (68, Procore)."

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "The Championship course combines the nine holes of Dogwood, with nine from Azalea. Water comes into play on six holes at this traditional parkland layout that has tree-lined fairways. This Mississippi course has slick Bermuda grass putting surfaces...

"Few names jump out when checking which members of this week's field have strong Jackson histories. CT Pan 45/1 and Henrik Norlander 55/1 are two, with the latter posting three top-four finishes from his most recent four visits."


Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Tips and Predictions

The Punter's Preview: In-form Rory too big to ignore at 8/1

Steve Rawlings: "The shock 2019 winner, Victor Perez, was hard to spot before the off. He was the first Frenchman to take the title and he didn't have any links form to boast or any form at any links type tracks.

"Previous links form is usually an essential prerequisite to winning this event so punters were left scratching their heads, but not for long. It was only after he'd won that the story broke widely that his girlfriend was Scottish, that he'd moved to Dundee, and that he was playing lots of links golf.

"Lucas Bjerregaard didn't have an abundance of obvious previous form either, but he had form at the Qatar Masters and his only previous DP World Tour success had come at the Portugal Masters - two events played at venues where links form holds up well. He'd also contended up until the halfway point of the 2014 Scottish Open but that was as much links form as he had in his locker.

"Previous links form is very important here as a rule though and the first 17 event winners, as well as the last three champs - Fitzpatrick, Fox and Danny Willett - have all been renowned links players.

"Look closely at the results of the Irish Open whenever that's been staged at a links venue, as it was this year, the last 14 editions of the Scottish Open, and, of course, the Open Championship, for clues...

"Rory arrives in St Andrews on the back of two second place finishes, but he could just as easily have been lining up in search of a hat-trick of successes having been matched as short as 1.21 at the Irish Open three weeks ago and 1.28 at Wentworth a fortnight ago.

"A case could be made that he should have won both of those events and there's no doubt that he's found it tough to get over the line at times. He should have won the US Open in June. But he's been unlucky in his last two starts with first Rasmus Hojgaard, and then Billy Horschel, finishing the respective tournaments in miraculous fashion. A week off to reboot and refresh will have done McIlroy the world of good and he's the man to beat."

Each-Way Tips: Alex Fitzpatrick chasing family double at 70/1

Matt Cooper: "Last year's column got the name of the winner right, but picked the wrong brother. While Matt won the championship (and the pro-am with mum), Alex closed with a 66 but it was too little, too late. We'll stick with him, though, because like his debut (when he was 28th after sitting 146th on Thursday evening) it showed promise.

"He was 17th in the 2023 Open at Royal Liverpool which reiterated that he can play links golf - and in poor weather, too. It's also only three starts since he was ninth in the Irish Open at Royal County Down (which itself was a fourth top 12 finish in a row).

"There will be good Fitzpatrick vibes this week and Alex can benefit from them."

Three longshots chanced across two events between 199/1 and 439/1

Steve Rawlings: "Brown came to prominence at the Open Championship in July where he contended all week long before eventually finishing 10th and he was matched at just 7.4 when a column pick at Royal County Down last month before finishing alone in fourth place behind Rasmus Hojgaard in the Irish Open.

"The Englishman has missed the cut in both his subsequent starts - in the BMW PGA Championship and the Open de Espana last week - but it's quite clear that he's a superb links exponent and a return to links golf is the sole reason for his inclusion.

"A top-10 finish at Troon and a brilliant fourth in the Irish Open are two efforts that are impossible to ignore as we return for another seaside test and with the English having such a strong tournament record (eighth different Englishmen have won the title), Brown has to be included at such a big price."

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.0 & 12 Us @ 2.0

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "All three layouts are traditional British links but while Kingsbarns is relatively young (only opened in 2000), the Old Course dates back to the days when golf was first invented;

"The three courses vary in character. The Old Course has large undulating greens, wide fairways and little rough, while Carnoustie is a much trickier affair with tighter fairways and more penal hazards. Carnoustie usually proves to be the most difficult of the three venues for pros and amateurs alike;

"Kingsbarns, meanwhile, has large greens and generous fairways and, over the years, has tended to yield a higher stroke average than the Old Course. All three venues, because of their links' nature, become much more difficult in windy conditions...

"Alex Noren 30/1 might be worth a shout this week, especially each-way. He has twice stood on the Pro-Am podium and, at No 48 in the world, has had a solid year on the PGA Tour where he qualified for the penultimate event of the FedEx Cup Play-Offs."


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