Alfred Dunhill Links Championship: In-form Rory too big to ignore at 8/1

• GIR the key stat for the week

• English have a fine record in Scotland

• Great event for longshots

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Tournament History

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is the DP World Tour's only pro-am. It's only been in existence since 2001 but it feels like an established tradition, and this will be the 23^rd edition.

A stellar line-up of pros and celebs do battle over three iconic links venues over four days, with those who make the cut after round three getting to play the 2022 Open Championship venue, St Andrews, for a second time on Sunday.

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Event Structure

Each pro is partnered by one amateur and the teams of two each play the three separate links courses (detailed below) in rotation over the first three days. The cut is made after the third round, when the top 60 pros and ties and the top 20 teams progress to the final round at St Andrews on Sunday.

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Venues and Course Details

St Andrews (Old Course), Fife, Scotland
Par 72, 7,318 yards

Affectionately known as the 'The Old Lady', St Andrews is the course every golfer wants to play. It hosts the Open Championship every five years, it's universally referred to as 'the home of golf' and, like all links courses, it plays very differently depending on the weather. In benign conditions on day four seven years ago, runner-up, Ross Fisher, fired an 11-under-par 61 to break the course record.

The par four 17^th hole, known as the 'road hole', is the toughest on the course and a par there is always acceptable. The back-nine is tougher than the front-nine and the toughest stretch on the course is between holes 11 and 17. The greens at St Andrews are usually set to run at around 10 on the stimpmeter.

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Carnoustie, Angus, Scotland
Par 72, 7,394 yards

Carnoustie has been used for the Open Championship eight times to date and it was the scene of Francesco Molinari's magnificent triumph six years ago. On the previous occasion, in 2007, Padraig Harrington edged out Sergio Garcia in a play-off, but it's best remembered as the venue where Jean van de Velde lost the plot in 1999 when on the 72nd hole, he blew a three-shot lead after finding the Barry Burn.

Often referred to as Carnasty, Carnoustie is also famous for its treacherous pot bunkers and it's the toughest of the three venues faced but the set-up this week, because they have to avoid making the amateurs looking foolish, is nowhere near as tough as it is at the Open. Tommy Fleetwood shot 63 to break the course record in this event seven years ago.

The greens at Carnoustie are expected to run at around 10.5 on the stimpmeter.

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Kingsbarns, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland
Par 72, 7,227 yards

The newest of the three venues and located just seven miles from St Andrews, Kingsbarns is a Kyle Philips design that opened to much acclaim in 2000. With generous fairways and few water hazards, it's not a stern test in good weather. The 2012 winner, Branden Grace, opened with a round of 60 at Kingsbarns.

The greens at Kingsbarns usually run at around 9.5 on the stimpmeter.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four day. Starting at midday on Thursday.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick -19 16.015/1 (54 holes)
2022 - Ryan Fox -15 80.079/1
2021 - Danny Willett -18 120.0119/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Victor Perez -22 460.0459/1
2018 - Lucas Bjerregaard -15 65.064/1
2017 - Tyrrell Hatton -24 25.024/1
2016 - Tyrrell Hatton -23 60.059/1
2015 - Thorbjorn Olesen -18 240.0239/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Alfred Dunhill Links?

Last year's renewal was reduced to just 54 holes after torrential rain caused chaos over the weekend but even with the unusual conditions, the statistical trends continued.

Last year's winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick ranked only 123^rd for Driving Distance and 53^rd for Driving Accuracy and what you do off the tee here is usually irrelevant. Finding greens is nearly always important though...

The shock 2014 winner, Oliver Wilson, ranked in the 60s for Greens In Regulation but that was unusually high and 11 of the last 12 winners have ranked inside the top-ten for GIR.

Fitzpatrick topped the GIR rankings and Fox ranked only ninth 12 months earlier but the three winners before him - Danny Willett, Victor Perez, and Lucas Bjerregaard - all ranked third.

Given how easily the courses are set up, to accommodate the amateurs in the field, those that contend make lots and lots of birdies.

Sebastian Soderberg was the only man to make more than Fitzpatrick last year, Fox made more than anyone else two years ago, as did Perez five years ago, and the Frenchman was the fourth winner in five years to do so.

As many as four of the last six winners have topped the Par 4 Scoring rankings for the week and unless the weather is poor, this is nearly always a birdie-fest, where going low is essential.

We may have only had three rounds last year but in the wet conditions, Fitzpatrick managed to get to 19-under-par for the week.

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Is There an Angle In?

The shock 2019 winner, Victor Perez, was hard to spot before the off. He was the first Frenchman to take the title and he didn't have any links form to boast or any form at any links type tracks.

Previous links form is usually an essential prerequisite to winning this event so punters were left scratching their heads, but not for long. It was only after he'd won that the story broke widely that his girlfriend was Scottish, that he'd moved to Dundee, and that he was playing lots of links golf.

Lucas Bjerregaard didn't have an abundance of obvious previous form either, but he had form at the Qatar Masters and his only previous DP World Tour success had come at the Portugal Masters - two events played at venues where links form holds up well. He'd also contended up until the halfway point of the 2014 Scottish Open but that was as much links form as he had in his locker.

Previous links form is very important here as a rule though and the first 17 event winners, as well as the last three champs - Fitzpatrick, Fox and Danny Willett - have all been renowned links players.

Look closely at the results of the Irish Open whenever that's been staged at a links venue, as it was this year, the last 14 editions of the Scottish Open, and, of course, the Open Championship, for clues.

Previous tournament form has counted for plenty here too. Even though they were all outsiders, matched at triple-figure prices, the 2021 winner, Willett, and the three winners between 2013 and 2015 had all finished inside the top-three in the event before they won.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Having grown up playing links golf, players from the UK and Ireland have a sizable advantage and an incredibly good event record. As many as 15 of the 22 winners to date have been English, Scottish, or Irish and Fitzpatrick was the eighth different Englishman to take the title.

Fox is a New Zealander, Branden Grace is the sole South African winner and Germany's Martin Kaymer took the title in 2010. The other three winners have been Scandinavians.

Fitzpatrick was well-fancied last year and having blown a great chance to win the British Masters the week before, Tyrrell Hatton was generally a 25/1 chance six years ago but outsiders have had a great record of late.

Although generally an 80.079/1 chance, Fox was matched at 95.094/1 before the off two years ago and despite his obvious claims, because he hadn't had a top-ten all year, mainly down to injury and illness, Willett was matched at a high of 150.0149/1 before the off in 2021.

Perez was matched at a high of 660.0659/1 six years ago, Thorbjorn Olesen was matched at 270.0269/1 in 2015, and the year before that, playing on a sponsor's invite, a woefully out of form Oliver Wilson was understandably matched at 1000.0999/1. David Howell was matched at 240.0239/1 before the off 11 years ago, Branden Grace was getting on for a triple-figure 12 years ago, and Michael Hoey was a huge outsider in 2011.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick - led by a stroke 1.75/7 (54 holes)
2022 - Ryan Fox - T2nd, trailing by four 8.07/1
2021 - Danny Willett - leading by three 2.6613/8
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Victor Perez - tied for the lead 4.57/2
2018 - Lucas Bjerregaard tied 5^th - trailing by four 22.021/1
2017 - Tyrrell Hatton - leading by five 1.211/5
2016 - Tyrrell Hatton - leading by three 2.01/1
2015 - Thorbjorn Olesen - leading by three 2.021/1

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In-Play Tactics

It's really difficult to make up ground in this event and after 22 renewals, we've witnessed just three winners trailing by more than four strokes after round one - Paul Lawrie in 2001, Stephen Gallagher in 2004, and the 2023 champ, Fox.

Having led by four strokes through 54 holes, Richard Mansell shot 76 in round four two years ago to finish seventh, but nine of the last 12 winners were leading or tied for the lead with a round to go and three 54-hole leaders have been beaten in a playoff so this is a hard event at which to make up ground.

Being drawn at Carnoustie on Thursday used to be the most advantageous draw and six of the last 10 winners all began the week there but things have changed a bit of late and four of the last six winners kicking off the event at St Andrews.

Playing the toughest course on day one (Carnoustie) can be advantageous but we need to keep an eye on the weather forecast. Playing there on a really tough day can render a player's plight hopeless and the luck of the draw can come into play but it does look like we need to swerve anyone that starts the week at Kingsbarns given none of the last ten winners have played there on a Thursday.

We have to go all the way back to 2012 for the last winner to kick off the week at Kingsbarns (Branden Grace) and he had to shoot 60 there!

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In-form Rory too big to ignore

Jon Rahm narrowly heads Rory McIlroy at the top of the market and they're the wrong way round for me.

The Spaniard, who was twice matched in-running at less than 1/21.50 to win last week's Open de Espana, is in fine form but I suspect things are about to catch up with him.

He must be disappointed after his play-off defeat to Angel Hidalgo on Sunday and with a brand-new baby daughter taking his attention, he may not be as focused as he needs to be to win this prestigious event.

He's a fabulous links exponent who's won the Irish Open around two separate links layouts and he's in quite brilliant form, with current form figures reading 1-5-2-1-2 since he finished seventh in the Open Championship in July. But on his only previous appearance in this event, in 2019, he missed the cut.

He was disappointing in contention in Madrid on Sunday, as well as at the Olympics at the start of August, when he finished fifth, having traded in-running at just 1.182/11. We need to bear in mind that two of his recent victories and one of his runner-up finishes were on the LIV Tour. I'm not convinced it's as competitive as the DP World Tour.

The calibre of players may be stronger but a shotgun start over 54 holes is very different to a 72 hole event in which the leaders go out last over the weekend. I suspect those plying their trade on the LIV Golf Tour will, over time, lose a bit of a competitive edge.

It's a bit of a mystery that Rory hasn't yet won this event.

He's looked like doing so on several occasions and with event form figures spanning back to 2007 and reading 3-8-2-53-2-2-63-26-4, it's a championship in which he contends more often than not.

Rory arrives in St Andrews on the back of two second place finishes, but he could just as easily have been lining up in search of a hat-trick of successes having been matched as short as 1.211/5 at the Irish Open three weeks ago and 1.282/7 at Wentworth a fortnight ago.

A case could be made that he should have won both of those events and there's no doubt that he's found it tough to get over the line at times. He should have won the US Open in June. But he's been unlucky in his last two starts with first Rasmus Hojgaard, and then Billy Horschel, finishing the respective tournaments in miraculous fashion.

A week off to reboot and refresh will have done McIlroy the world of good and he's the man to beat.

This is a very strong field and the strongest I can remember for this event but he's generally a 6/17.00 chance on the High Street so I'm more than happy to chance him modestly at 8/19.00.

The two-time winner, Tyrrell Hatton, is next up but he looks short enough at 12/113.00.

He's been ticking over since winning in Nashville in June but in his three starts on the DP World Tour since, he's missed the cut in the Open, finished 18^th at the British Masters and 10^th last week in Spain, after a slow start.

With tournament numbers reading MC-MC-1-1-2-15-2-7, he's likely to contend again but the same argument can be made about Hatton as Rahm. How competitive will he be in a finish over 72 holes now that he plays on the LIV Tour?

Tommy Fleetwood has played in the event 12 times previously and he's yet to win it, despite breaking the course record at Carnoustie 10 years ago, and I'm always happy to swerve him at a short price.

The likable Englishman is a fabulous links exponent but he's never convincing in-contention and in a field as deep as this, he's simply too short at less than 14/115.00.

With Shane Lowry, Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren and recent winners, Horschel, Rasmus Hojgaard and Matt Wallace all in attendance, as well as the in-form South African Thriston Lawrence, this is a tough event to entangle. The only other player I came close to backing towards the head of the market was the Scottish Open champ, Robert MacIntyre.

If he refocuses following his victory around the Renaissance Club in July, he's highly likely to contend again and I thought he was a decent price at 28/129.00 but this a strange event that some never take to and his tournament form figures of 26-MC-34-20-25 are a concern.

This has been a great event for longshots over the years so I'll be back later today or tomorrow with at least one selection for the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

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Now read my Sanderson Farms Championship preview here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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