The Punter's De-brief: Hidalgo the hero in extra time

• Three players trade at odds-on

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Pre-event 420.0419/1 chance, Angel Hidalgo, who was matched at as high as 460.0459/1 before the off, was trading at 16/117.00 to win the Open de Espana when he led by two after a sensational six-under-par 66 in breezy conditions on Thursday afternoon.

The 26-year-old, who was seeking his first win on the DP World Tour, led by four at halfway and he was trading at 4.77/2 but after a 68 on Saturday, his lead had been cut to two and with the three-time winner and strong pre-event favourite, Jon Rahm, hot on his heels, and alone in second, he looked like he might have his work cut out to emulate the 2023 winner, Matthieu Pavon, and win the event wire-to-wire.

A bogey at the opening hole was far from an ideal start and with Rahm and the man who started the day in third, David Puig, both birdying the first, Hidalgo looked in trouble from the get-go.

To his credit, he bounced back with a birdie at the second but after back-to-back bogeys at five and six, it was starting to look like his race had been run.

Rahm didn't really get going either though and as the three of them stood on the eighth tee, Puig was leading by three and trading at just 1.331/3 but there was a huge swing again on the eighth and it was all change again.

Puig bogeyed the hole as Rahm and Hidalgo both stiffed their approaches to tap in range and the wheels fell off in dramatic fashion after that for the promising 22-year-old.

After the bogey at eight, Puig dopped further shots at 11, 13, 15 and by the time he dropped another at 17, he was out of the race.

Having been all at sea early in the round, Rahm birdied three holes in-a-row from the eighth and he was matched at just 1.434/9 when tied for the lead with Hidalgo with six holes to play.

It looked highly likely that the vastly more experienced player was going to assume command and win his fourth Open de Espana title, but he's been far from reliable in contention of late and he made a complete mess of the 13^th hole to hand the initiative back to Hidalgo.

Rahm had been matched at a low of just 1.182/11 during the final round at the Olympics in Paris so his double-bogey at 13 was perhaps not too surprising.

He appeared to rush his shots and although he bounced back with a great birdie four at the par five 14^th, Hidalgo made a miraculous birdie of his own and with two to play, Hidalgo still led by two and he was matched in-running at 1.011/100 as defeat looked highly unlikely after he'd played his second shot at the par three 17^th.

And he drains the birdie putt #AccionaOpen https://t.co/tYjYVaRlze pic.twitter.com/Exy1s97k1g

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 29, 2024

Hidalgo played a lovely little chip shot form the rough to tap in range for his par, but Rahm wasn't quite finished and he drained in his birdie putt on what was the hardest hole on the course from 19 feet and the deficit was cut to one with one to play.

Hidalgo still looked far and away the most likely winner after a fine tee-shot and a lovely little chip to set up a birdie opportunity on the par four 18^th from four feet but after Rahm had rolled in his birdie putt to get to 14-under-par and alongside Hidalgo, the less experienced Spaniard missed his putt, and we were into extra time.

Having drifted all the way out to 55.054/1, Rahm entered the playoff as the warm favourite and he was matched at a low of 1.42/5 after he'd holed for birdie at the first extra hole.

Left with a putt every bit as difficult as the short one he'd missed in regulation play, it wouldn't have been a surprise if Hidalgo had missed his birdie attempt but he stepped bravely and rolled in and we were back to the 18^th tee to go again.

Rahm had missed the green left on the drivable par four 18^th in regulation play and at the first extra hole and after he'd missed it even further left at the second extra hole, the advantage swung back in favour of Hidalgo.

Rahm hit a scruffy chip that ran way past the hole and just off the green and the writing was on the wall.

Hidalgo chipped up nicely to within a couple of feet and once Rahm had missed the birdie putt from off the green, the younger man was left with the simplest of tasks to take the title.

Take on the odds-on shots on a Sunday

As many as four men traded at odds-on on Sunday at Wentworth the week before and we witnessed three men go long odds-on in Madrid last week.

These weren't anomalous results and taking on odds-on favourites on the DP World Tour week after week is a great way to play the events.

As long as you're happy to accept the loss if only one player trades at odds-on, all you need is to lay two at odds-on and you're into a guaranteed profit.

As the tournament ebbs and flows on a Sunday, further trades can be made and when the music stops and the trophy is lifted, it matters not a jot who's doing the lifting.

Obviously, if only one player trades at odds-on then a loss will be made but we often see three, four or even more players trade at long odds-on before the end of the event and winning weeks will far outweigh the losing ones.

Club de Campo a haven for frontrunners

Hidalgo is the seventh winner in-a-row to be leading with a round to go at Club de Campo and in 13 tournaments at the Madrid venue since 1996, ten victors have been leading and two have been trailing by just a stroke so it's clearly a hard place at which to play catch up.

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