Sanderson Farms Championship: Moore the play in Mississippi at 54/1

• Greens In Regulation the key stat for Sanderson Farms

• Great event for first time winners and longshots

• Read my Alfred Dunhill Links preview here

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Tournament History

The Sanderson Farms Championship was first staged at the Hattiesburg Country Club in 1968. In 1994 it moved to the Annandale Country Club and then 10 years ago it moved to the Country Club of Jackson. The event also changed its position in the PGA Tour schedule in 2014, moving to the autumn from the July slot it had occupied over the previous three years.

Originally played opposite the US Masters in April, it's also been played opposite the Tour Championship, the Ryder Cup, the Presidents Cup, the Open Championship, and a couple of different World Golf Championship events but it's now establishing itself as a standalone tournament and this is the sixth year in-a-row that the Sanderson Farms Championship isn't playing second fiddle to another PGA Tour event.

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Venue

The Country Club of Jackson, Jackson, Mississippi

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Course Details

Par 72, 7,461yards
Stroke Index in 2023 - 70.25

The Country Club of Jackson was founded over 100 years ago, but this week's host course only opened in 1962. It's a composite of two Dick Wilson-designed nines called Dogwood and Azalea and the 18 holes have been extensively remodelled a number of times. On the last occasion, in 2008, by the heavily Donald Ross-influenced, John Fought.

The course is Bermuda and the greens vary in size and are often perched up with tricky looking run-off areas. They're usually set to run at 13 on the Stimpmeter.

This is the 11^th time the Country Club of Jackson has hosted the tournament and it's always averaged under-par.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 17:00 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Luke List -17 60.059/1 (playoff)
2022 - Mackenzie Hughes 150.0149/1 (playoff)
2021 - Sam Burns -22 20.019/1
2020 - Sergio Garcia -19 70.069/1
2019 - Sebastian Munoz -18 75.074/1 (playoff)
2018 - Cameron Champ -21 70.069/1
2017 - Ryan Armour -19 110.0109/1
2016 - Cody Gribble -20 110.0109/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Sanderson Farms?

Although four of the last six winners have ranked inside the top-10 for Driving Distance, bombing it off the tee isn't essential. The 2022 playoff protagonists, Mackenzie Hughes and Sepp Straka, only ranked 25^th and 41^st for DD, the 2015 winner, Peter Malnati, ranked 65^th and the 2017 champ, Ryan Armour, only ranked 69^th.

Finding fairways isn't crucial either. The first three course winners ranked 40^th, 35^th and 38^th for DA, the 2019 winner, Sebastian Munoz, ranked only 36^th, the 2018 winner, Cameron Champ, only 65^th and the last two winners have ranked only 50^th and 53^rd.

I'd marginally favour length over accuracy from the tee but the key stat is Greens In regulation.

We had a five-man playoff to decide the title last year and three of the five ranked inside the top10 for GIR. Hughes only ranked 37^th for GIR when winning in 2022 but the second and third ranked second and third and Emiliano Grillo, who finished tied for fifth, topped the GIR Rankings.

Cody Gribble, the 2016 winner here, only ranked 29^th for GIR but the other eight course winners have ranked inside the top-10 and the two winners before Hughes, Sam Burns and Sergio Garcia, both hit more greens in regulation than anyone else.

Finding the greens with regularity alone is not enough though. You usually need to putt very well here to win.

Of the five men to make it into the playoff 12 months ago, four ranked inside the top-seven for Strokes Gained: Putting and five of the top-eight in 2022 ranked inside the top-10 for Putting Average. The first three home in 2021 ranked 11^th, first and fourth for PA and the first five winners at the track ranked fifth, second, first, second and first.

The picture is quite clear. You need to find plenty of greens and putt the lights out to win. Events like this are always hard to predict given it's almost impossible to know beforehand who's going to have a great week with the flat-stick. Which will go some way to explaining why outsiders have a very fair record.

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Is There an Angle In?

There are almost too many course correlations to consider here but the three strongest appear to be Detroit Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club and Victoria National.

Although they fell back over the weekend, Sanderson winners, Cameron Champ, Peter Malnati and Ryan Armour were all inside the top-10 of the inaugural Rock Mortgage Classic at the Donald Ross designed, Detroit Golf Club, Cameron Young has finished runner-up in both events and the two time RMC winner, Cameron Davis, was tied for the lead here with a round to go in 2020. And that renewal of this event provided plenty of evidence to suggest there's a strong link to another Ross-designed course - Sedgefield - home of the Wyndham Championship.

The 2020 winner, Sergio Garcia, won the Wyndham 12 years ago and two other Wyndham winners pressed the Spaniard on Sunday. Brandt Snedeker, the 2018 winner, was matched at a low of 3.55/2, and J.T Poston, the 2019 Wyndham winner, hit a low of 2.526/4.

At first glance, it seems odd that two Donald Ross tracks appear to link but it stands to reason considering Jackson was extensively remodelled in 2008 by the heavily Ross-influenced, John Fought.

Quite why the Bentgrass Tom Fazio-designed Victoria National in Indiana should correlate with the Bermuda grass Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi is a bit of a mystery but there are results to suggest it does.

The 2016 Sanderson Farms Championship winner, Cody Gribble, finished second to Seamus Power in the United Leasing Championship at Victoria National on the Korn Ferry Tour in May '16. Power contended at the SFC again in 2017, having been in the thick of the action early on in 2016 on debut, and alongside Gribble in second in Indiana was Jonathan Randolph, who finished third here six years ago.

Smylie Kaufman, who finished fourth here in 2017, won the United Leasing Championship seven years ago and the 2016 SFC runner-up, Greg Owen, won the 2014 edition of the United Leasing Championship, with the 2017 SFC winner, Ryan Armour, finishing second!

And last year's winner, Luke List, was two clear at the halfway stage of the United Leasing Championship at Victoria at the halfway stage back in 2015.

The last edition of the United Leasing Championship was in 2018 but up until this year, the Victoria National had been the host course for the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. That tournament switches to the Pete Dye-designed Frenck Lick Resort this year but results up until last year are worth looking at.

And finally, the Barbasol Championship links strongly to the Wyndham so that's another event to consider.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Now that it's a standalone event, the calibre of the winners may increase over time and the last four results appear to back that up slightly.

Prior to Sergio's success four years ago, all six course winners had far more experience on the Korn Ferry Tour than on the PGA Tour, so whether young or old, looking to recently graduated Korn Ferry Tour players looks a good angle in.

Prior to five years ago, Luke Donald was the only player from outside the States and Canada to win this title in more than 50 years. That's changing but players from the southern states do particularly well in this event as a rule.

List was born in Seattle, Washington but now resides in Sea Island, Georgia and Ryan Armour comes from Ohio, so he's a bit further north. But the 2021 winner, Burns, is from Louisiana, Gribble comes from Texas and the 2015 winner, Peter Malnati, is from Tennessee, where he won on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Although Burns went off favourite three years ago, this has been a good event for outsiders. The first four course winners all went off at triple-figure prices and the next three winners were fairly unfancied too, going off at around 70.069/1.

With form figures reading MC-MC-MC-MC-56th, it was just about impossible to pick out Malnati before the off nine years ago and in Nick Taylor's first three PGA Tour events in 2014, he'd finished MC-56-MC before winning. It's perhaps not that surprising that they were both matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off.

Woody Austin caused a huge shock 11 years ago, when he was matched at more than 400.0399/1 before the off and with form figures reading MC-MC-MC-MC-46-58-25, Hughes was generally a 150.0149/1 chance two years ago.

List was a 60.059/1 chance before the off last year so this doesn't look like an event to put too much faith in the market leaders.

The last two winners, List and Hughes, were both winning for the second time on the PGA Tour when they took the title here, but as many as seven of the last 12 victors were winning for the first time on the PGA Tour.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Luke List - tied third, trailing by four 14.013/1
2022 - Mackenzie Hughes - trailed by one stroke 4.57/2
2021 - Sam Burns - trailed by one stroke 4.216/5
2020 - Sergio Garcia - tied for the lead with two others 4.94/1
2019 - Sebastian Munoz led by one stroke 3.39/4
2018 - Cameron Champ led by four strokes 1.51/2
2017 - Ryan Armour led by five strokes 1.684/6
2016 - Cody Gribble trailed by one stroke 13.5

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In-Play Tactics

It's been a mixed bag here so far. Both Champ and Armour won wire-to-wire, the very first course winner, Taylor, sat second after round one and he was always on the premises thereafter,. List was always inside the top-four places last year but given Gribble sat 10 off the lead and outside the top-100 places after round one in 2016, and Malnati overcame a slow start in 2015 (sat tied 42^nd and seven off the pace after day one), this is definitely a venue at which a fast start isn't essential.

Hughes sat tied for 43^rd and five off the lead in 2022 but he was tied for the lead at halfway after a sensational 63 in round two. Although a slow start can be overcome, making ground up before the weekend looks key given every course winner here has been inside the top 10 places through 36 holes.

Ben Griffin led by three with a round to go last year and he really should have won. He was matched at as low as 1.222/9 when he still led by two with just three holes to play, despite not playing particularly well, and he missed this par save at the 72^nd hole to claim the spoils before losing in the playoff. But as demonstrated above, the winners are usually leading or close to the lead with a round to go.

This close for the win ...

We're headed to a 5-way playoff @Sanderson_Champ. pic.twitter.com/aHxzAbC8C0

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 8, 2023

Jackson has an interesting finish. The par five 14^th and the drivable par four 15^th were the two easiest holes on the course in 2022 and they were two of the easiest four holes last year but the last three holes (all par fours) ranked first, 11^th and third hardest.

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Moore the only play in Mississippi

Admittedly, it's a wide-open market with only Keith Mitchell, whose sole success was five years ago, trading at less than 30.029/1, but if there's any value in any of the market leaders, I can't see it.

Mitchell has finished 12^th in each of his last two starts but he's missed the cut on all four occasions that he's played here before, and he has no form to speak of at any of the correlating courses with his 12^th place finish in the Wyndham Championship in August the highlight.

Seamus Power and Mackenzie Hughes are both trading at 30.029/1 and of the two I prefer the latter.

The Canadian won here two years ago and he arrives in reasonable form, having finished fourth when a selection at 60.059/1 in the Procore Championship last month. But he'll be tired after last week's Presidents Cup in his homeland.

Power was last seen when finishing tied for 26^th in the Irish Open but he was 10^th before that in the St Jude Championship so one could argue he's in fair form but he's not great in-the-mix and he has only ordinary course form figures reading 29-18-19-MC-MC-30.

I'll be back later today or tomorrow with at least one selection in this event for the Find Me a 100 Winner column but for now my sole selection is Taylor Moore who looks a fair price at 55.054/1.

Moore's only victory to date was at the Valspar Championship two years ago, an event won this year by Peter Malnati, who won here in 2015, and back-to-back in 2021 and 2022 by the 2021 SFC winner Sam Burns.

Whether we can class that as a strong course correlation or not is debatable, but Moore has form at plenty of other tracks that connect.

He's finished inside the top-five at Sedgefield, Detroit and Victoria National previously and, whe he isn't in the best of form at present, he finished 12^th in the US PGA Championship earlier in the year and was 10^th at the 3M Open just three starts ago.

The Texan was 17^th here on debut, having just turned pro, way back in 2017. He was 17^th in 2021 and 24^th in 2022, so he has course form in the book and he looks a reasonable price at anything around 50/151.00.

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Now read my Alfred Dunhill Links Championship preview

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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