Golf Tips: Best bets for Mexico Open at Vidanta and Kenya Open

• 70/171.00 Champ backed by Steve in Mexico

• 28/129.00 Taylor is Dave's first tip at Vidanta

• 369/1370.00 Warren one of five longshots this week

Mexico Open at Vidanta Tips and Predictions

Champ a value bet in weak field

Steve Rawlings: "We've only had two editions here but what little evidence we have suggests we need to be prioritising previous course form highly. When Rahm won the first edition in 2022, last year's winner, Finau, finished second alongside Brandon Wu, who finished third last year.

"Cameron Champ, who finished sixth two years ago arrived in Mexico in awful form last year, having missed six cuts in-a-row, but he was on the fringes of contention over the weekend and but for a poor finish, he'd have been placed again.

"Champ sat fifth with three holes to play but he bogeyed both 16 and 17 before birdying the last and he eventually finished tied for eighth. And Patrick Rodgers finished tenth in both the first two editions staged here...

"Cameron Champ has been in poor form of late, but he was just as bad last year before finishing eighth, 12 months after finishing sixth so I'm happy to take a small chance on him at 70.0.

"He clearly loves the venue and I thought that was a fair price given how well course form held up last year."

Each-way Tips: Picks from 28/1 to 70/1

Dave Tindall: "Pendrith's last visit to Mexico resulted in a 15th at the World Wide Technology Championship between the Shriners and the Bermuda. He was left to rue a cold start as he finished 66-67-65.

"With a Presidents Cup in Montreal later this year, Canadian golfers seem to be collectively raising their games.

"We've seen Nick Taylor score a brilliant win in the Waste Management Phoenix Open two weeks ago while last week Adam Hadwin took fourth at Riviera to follow up his sixth at The American Express.

"Pendrith and Taylor both made the top 10 at the Sony Open and I'm expecting this week's headline pick to really enjoy the test here after he promised much more than his eventual 30th on debut last year after starting out 65-70 to sit fourth after day one and 12th at halfway.

"The wins for Finau and Rahm show that big hitting is rewarded here and Pendrith, who loves to pull the big stick, is 10th for Driving Distance on the PGA Tour this season (he was 30th and 10th in the previous two)."

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "The Greg Norman-designed course, which opened in 2015, made its PGA Tour debut two years ago when Spaniard Jon Rahm emerged triumphant.

"Both fairways and putting surfaces are sown with Paspalum grass, while the layout has typically large and undulating Greg Norman-crafted greens. Fairway width is reasonably generous by PGA Tour standards, and the numerous large water hazards affect 14 holes...

"Germany's Stephan Jaeger 20/1 is seeking his first Tour title. The 34-year-old has won six times on the Korn Ferry Tour; he has posted a brace of top-20s this year; and, on his previous visits to Vidanta Vallarta, has finished 15th and 18th."

Kenya Open Tips and Predictions

Frittelli value to back up Bahrain win

Steve Rawlings: "Jens Fahrbring lost a playoff here in 2018, having trailed by ten at halfway, and the 1997 and 2001 Challenge Tour winners, Jorge Berendt and Ashley Roestaff, like the last two winners of this event, Wu and Campillo, sat five adrift after 36 holes so a sluggish start can be overcome but the other 11 course winners since 1996 have all been inside the top-five and within four stokes at the halfway stage.

"No first-round leaders have gone on to win since 1996 but six 36-hole leaders have converted. Ewen Ferguson led by four strokes with a round to go two years ago (Wu sat tied second) but he eventually finished tied eighth and four course winners before him were all trailing with a round to go but Campillo hit the front after 54 holes last year, thanks to a brilliant eight-under-par 63 on Moving Day.

"The last two results here look slightly unusual given 36-hole leaders have a slightly better record than 54-hole leaders. Since 1996, 18 players have led or co-led at halfway and six went on to win, whereas only six of the 19 players to lead or co-lead after three rounds have been victorious...

"Dylan Frittelli missed the cut at the Qatar Masters the following week but that's hardly surprising. He will have celebrated his victory in Bahrain the week before and after a bit of a break he can refresh and go again.

"Frittelli is a class act on his day, and he very much enjoys a tree-lined test, as his fifth-placed finish in the US Masters in 2020 testifies."

Kenya comeback on cards for 40/1 Catlin

Matt Cooper: "Catlin carded a 64 in the first round of last year's Kenya Open to tie the early lead on his way to finishing T15th.

"A lot of his efforts at altitude have tended to promise more they've delivered - he opened 66-66 at Adamstal to be in the mix at halfway in 2020, he was two off the 54-hole lead at Crans in 2021, and played well only after slow starts at Crans and Albatross last summer.

"Crucially, he is also trending in the right direction. He started this stretch by managing one low score a week, notably when carding a 63 in last October's Qatar Masters. Then he started the new season with a pair of top 40s in Australia followed by 10th in the Mauritius Open.

"In-between those results he was sixth in the Thailand Open, he was sixth again after 36 holes in the Boonchu Ruangkit Championship last month before illness forced a withdrawal and was back on the horse with third place last time out in the Malaysian Open."

Warren is one of five worth chancing at long odds

Steve Rawlings: "I've taken a small chance on the Scottish veteran Marc Warren at a huge price.

"We haven't seen the 42-year-old four-time DP World Tour winner since he finished 59^th at the Mauritius Open, so his wellbeing is anyone's guess but this is just his sort of course.

"On his only previous visit, way back in 2011, he finished sixth, despite shooting 74 in round two."

First-Round Leader Tips: Picks from 50/1 to 80/1

Dave Tindall: "Ashun Wu was a first-round leader in the Qatar Masters on his latest start, eventually following his opening 67 with three solid rounds to finish ninth.

"That was a welcome return to form after a modest run but this is a course where he can continue that uptick. The Chinese golfer proved that in emphatic style when winning at this venue in 2022 when it staged the Kenya Open for the first time.

"Wu was fifth after day one before accelerating away on Sunday to win by four. Back at the scene of that win he's worth a go at 50/1 to burst out of the blocks and hopefully top the Thursday leaderboard. He heads out at 13.10 local."

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "Muthaiga Golf Club, which is situated around five miles north of Nairobi city centre, is a lush parkland venue with tight tree-lined fairways and water hazards on seven holes. The course is laid out close to the Karura Forest and is undulating in places.

"There are plenty of testing dog legs to be conquered at a layout where good course management is especially important...

"Not a great amount of course form data to go on but Thriston Lawrence 14/1 appears well-placed to earn a fifth DP World Tour victory in 27 months. The South African tied-second on his only previous appearance at Muthaiga two years ago.

"Julien Brun 60/1 and Darius Van Driel 66/1 are others with reasonable brief course histories, but there's little which stands out as being exceptionally impressive."

Read the Punter's in-play blog for the latest from both of this week's events