World Cup Group D Betting Guide: Betfair traders rate Australia, Paraguay, Turkey and USA

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Australia

Odds to win the World Cup: 500/1501.00
Odds to win Group D: 8/19.00

Profile

Australia enter the 2026 World Cup as clear underdogs in a challenging group featuring the United States, Turkey, and Paraguay. Whilst the Socceroos are unlikely to dominate possession against stronger opponents, they have consistently demonstrated an ability to trouble elite nations through disciplined organisation, physicality, and resilience. A younger generation of emerging talents - including Alessandro Circati, Jordan Bos, Nestory Irankunda, and Mohamed Touré - provides this squad with greater attacking potential than previous Australian teams.

How They Qualified

Australia secured their sixth consecutive World Cup appearance by finishing second in AFC Group C, confirming qualification on 10 June 2025 with a 2-1 away victory over Saudi Arabia. Early struggles - including a 1-0 home defeat to Bahrain and a 0-0 draw with Indonesia - prompted the resignation of long-serving coach Graham Arnold in September 2024, with Tony Popovic appointed as replacement.

A defining moment came in June 2025 when Australia defeated Japan 1-0 in Perth, with Aziz Behich scoring in the 90th minute despite Japan's dominance. The Socceroos then recovered from an early deficit against Saudi Arabia, with Connor Metcalfe and Mitchell Duke securing the 2-1 victory that confirmed their progression.

The Manager

Tony Popovic, a member of Australia's famous 2006 World Cup squad, has implemented a more structured and disciplined identity. Known for defensive organisation and tactical discipline from his club career, Popovic has integrated younger players whilst maintaining a physically strong team identity.

Australia are expected to operate primarily in a 3-4-2-1 formation, which becomes a back five defensively. This system prioritises compact shape, defensive stability, and quick transitions through the wing-backs.

The Squad

Captain Mathew Ryan remains the first-choice goalkeeper, providing crucial leadership and experience. Defensively, Parma's Alessandro Circati is emerging as the long-term leader, partnered with Cameron Burgess as a key pillar. Jordan Bos has emerged as one of Australia's biggest attacking threats from left wing-back, regularly driving forward and contributing goals.

In midfield, Aiden O'Neill and Jackson Irvine form the expected partnership with Ajdin Hrustic providing creativity further forward. Injured Riley McGree who plays for Middlesbrough, will be missed, but he has been replaced by Sydney born and raised Christian Volpato who plays both out wide and behind the No. 9 for Sassuolo who switched his allegiance from Italy to the Socceroos

Australia can still struggle to consistently control possession against stronger opposition. Mohamed Touré, a 22-year-old emerging talent following strong form with Norwich City, is expected to lead the attack, with Nestory Irankunda providing pace and unpredictability.

Key Man

Alessandro Circati, despite his age (22), has already captained Australia and impressed with his composure, positioning, and understanding of Popovic's defensive system. 

One to Watch

Touré represents an exciting prospect - scoring 10 goals in 12 Championship matches - though significant pressure comes with playing such a key role at such a young age.

Tournament Prospects

Australia face a difficult group and remain Betfair's outsiders to qualify. They lack the individual star power of tournament favourites, but their defensive structure, physicality, and disciplined approach make them dangerous opponents. Organised defending and counter-attacking opportunities represent their best chance of troubling stronger sides. Progression is possible but would likely require another strong collective performance similar to Qatar 2022, with several favourable results needed to reach the knockout stages.

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Paraguay

Odds to win the World Cup: 250/1251.00
Odds to win Group D: 4/15.00

Profile

Paraguay return to the World Cup for the first time since their impressive quarter-final run in 2010, when they narrowly lost 1-0 to eventual champions Spain. That achievement marked a historic first appearance in the last eight, though Paraguay subsequently disappointed with inconsistent performances and missed three consecutive World Cups whilst cycling through ten managers in thirteen years.

How They Qualified 

Paraguay's early qualification campaign proved challenging under Daniel Garnero, accumulating only five points from six matches with a single home victory against Bolivia. The appointment of Gustavo Alfaro triggered a dramatic transformation. His structured, compact approach yielded immediate defensive improvement, culminating in a statement 1-0 victory over Brazil in September 2024.

Alfaro's side became significantly more disciplined and dangerous on the counter-attack, reminiscent of Paraguay's successful sides from the late 1990s and 2000s. This resurgence saw impressive victories over Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, with the team's points-per-game average improving from 0.83 to 1.92 under Alfaro's stewardship. Following his appointment, Paraguay accumulated 23 points from a possible 36 - matching Argentina's total - whilst maintaining a +7 goal difference. The side remained unbeaten for nine matches at one stage, securing qualification with a match remaining.

The Manager 

Gustavo Alfaro transformed a directionless squad into a cohesive, organised unit. Previously, he guided Ecuador to the 2022 Qatar World Cup, where they impressively beat the hosts and drew with the Netherlands. Alfaro is renowned for instilling organisation and unity, evident in both his Ecuador and Paraguay projects.

Paraguay regularly switch between 4-4-2, 4-2-3-1, and 4-3-3 formations, maintaining defensive consistency whilst rotating attacking personnel. Players such as Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso operate flexibly between midfield and forward positions.

The Squad

Goalkeeping decisions remain unclear, with 25-year-old Orlando Gill - a San Lorenzo prospect who has featured in recent friendlies - potentially challenging experienced 38-year-old Roberto Fernández. Defensively, Omar Alderete (Sunderland) and 32-year-old captain Gustavo Gomez (88 caps) form an experienced partnership prioritising compactness and organisation. Alfaro's tactical approach emphasises regular substitutions, ensuring fresh legs and opportunities for squad players.

Key Man 

Miguel Almiron, at 32, remains crucial to Paraguay's counter-attacking identity. The Newcastle midfielder's work-rate, pressing intensity, and ability to accelerate opponents under pressure remain invaluable to Alfaro's system.

One to Watch 

Julio Enciso, aged 22, has delivered an impressive campaign for Strasbourg with 12 goals and 9 assists across nearly 60 appearances. The versatile attacking midfielder is a good dribbler and close-range finisher, having gained valuable Premier League experience with Brighton. 

Tournament Prospects

Paraguay have a realistic prospect of advancing from a group containing Australia, Turkey, and hosts USA. Victory against Australia would likely guarantee progression, provided they secure a draw against either Turkey or the United States. Though Turkey's attacking threat and America's home advantage present significant challenges, Paraguay have demonstrated defensive solidity under Alfaro and possess dangerous counter-attacking potential.

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Turkey

Odds to win the World Cup: 100/1101.00
Odds to win Group D: 7/42.75

Profile

After a 24-year absence, Turkey return to the World Cup finals with a generation demonstrating clear structural improvement over predecessors. The Turkish national team has evolved tactically and technically, presenting a more formidable prospect than previous iterations. This resurgence reflects both improved domestic development and the emergence of genuinely world-class individual talents.

How They Qualified

Turkey progressed through a competitive European qualifying group, finishing second behind  4/1 tournament favourites Spain. Turkey demonstrated mental resilience and tactical discipline in the playoffs beating Romania and Kosovo 1-0. 

Turkey's ability to maintain defensive solidity whilst capitalising on limited attacking opportunities showcased the improvements implemented under current management. 

The Manager

Vincenzo Montella has instilled a stronger tactical identity throughout the Turkish team, delivering consistent results against mid-tier opponents, though defensive vulnerabilities remain evident against elite sides. Montella capitalises on and brings out the best in Turkey's most talented offensive players - a hallmark of his Serie A coaching career.

Turkey operate in a structured 4-2-3-1 formation emphasising measured build-up play and wing exploitation. The system focuses on utilising talented wide players where Turkey possesses genuine individual quality. Set pieces represent an important attacking avenue, with the team frequently seeking opportunities in the attacking third to capitalise on specialist strengths.

The Squad 

The squad demonstrates solid mid-tier quality with measured defensive foundations, though weaknesses emerge against top-tier opposition. The defensive line, whilst organised, struggles against elite attacking forces. Midfield possession offers solidity without exceptional creativity, placing emphasis on wing play and direct attacking transitions.

Turkey's strength lies in their ability to transition from defence into dangerous attacking sequences, exploiting the technical capabilities of their most talented players. However, without defensive mastery against elite opposition, this remains fundamentally a mid-tier squad.

The Key Man

Hakan Çalhanoğlu remains Turkey's orchestrator as team captain, playmaker, and designated penalty taker. His set-piece delivery and ability to manipulate play prove crucial to Turkey's attacking structure. Çalhanoğlu's experience and leadership represent the team's organisational backbone.

One to Watch 

Arda Güler (Real Madrid) and Kenan Yıldız (Juventus) represent Turkish football's emerging elite. Despite their youth, both are established starters for Europe's top clubs. Güler excels at providing assists, whilst Yıldız demonstrates clinical finishing. These young talents carry responsibility for Turkey's offensive ambitions.

Tournament Prospects

Turkey are expected to advance to the round of 16, with a genuine possibility of progressing further should their young stars deliver consistently. However, defensive limitations against elite opposition suggest they remain clear underdogs against the six-to-seven tournament favourites. Success would constitute a positive achievement representing progress for Turkish football development.

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USA

Odds to win the World Cup: 66/167.00
Odds to win Group D: 5/42.25

Profile

American soccer has developed significantly in recent times with a talented player pool delivering stronger international performances. The USMNT has blended established names like Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie with younger, technically gifted players emerging from improved developmental pathways. As tournament hosts, the USA enjoy substantial advantages including familiar environments, substantial crowd support, and eliminated travel burdens. Expectations are considerable: knockout qualification represents the minimum requirement; deeper progression would mark a genuine breakthrough for American soccer.

How They Qualified

The United States qualified automatically as co-hosts alongside Canada and Mexico. Recent preparation included unconvincing friendlies against Belgium and Portugal in March. The World Cup's significantly elevated competition level represents unknown territory, creating genuine uncertainty about home-soil performance.

The Manager 

Mauricio Pochettino, an experienced Argentine manager previously at Tottenham, Paris Saint-Germain, and Chelsea, was appointed in 2024. Renowned as an attacking, high-pressing coach, Pochettino values intensity, verticality, and youth development. His big club management career and international playing experience are both big assets. Pochettino's challenge involves rapidly elevating a promising but still-developing squad into genuine World Cup contention.

The Squad 

The USMNT squad blends experienced leaders with talented younger players, operating with fast, vertical football emphasising high-pressing and quick transitions. The system prioritises full-pitch intensity and rapid attacking transitions. Midfield depth and creative wide capabilities present strengths, though central defensive consistency and forward-line consistency remain areas requiring improvement.

Playing across three nations (United States, Canada, Mexico), the squad will receive substantial support, though elevated expectations accompany home advantage. The expanded 48-team format provides realistic early-round progression opportunities, though converting such prospects into deep tournament runs represents the genuine test.

Key Players

Christian Pulisic represents the USMNT's key player. Born in 1998, he operates in his prime after sustained Serie A success with AC Milan, consistently featuring among the team's top scorers. His advanced left positioning--in either 3-4-2-1 or 4-2-3-1 formations--places significant responsibility on his creative and finishing capabilities. Despite recent inconsistent form at Milan, his technical quality and work-rate remain exceptional.

Rising Talents

Malik Tillman, born 2002, represents American soccer's emerging prospect. Now established with Bundesliga side Bayer Leverkusen following transition from German youth structures, Tillman demonstrates technical gifting and versatility. Operating as mezzala, attacking midfielder, or wide player, he combines close control, vision, and goal-scoring capability--attributes increasingly important within Pochettino's tactical framework.

Tournament Prospects

Despite soccer growth in America, an experienced manager, and home advantage, the USA remain unlikely tournament favourites. Odds suggest expectations remain modest, with group-stage progression representing the minimum target and round-of-16 advancement constituting success. Anything beyond that would represent a significant achievement marking genuine American soccer progress.

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World Cup Tips: How to bet Group D

To Reach Round of 16 - USA @ 4/51.80

Likely to progress from the group and finishing Top guarantees their last 32 tie will be on home turf. Win the Group and it will be against a 3rd place qualifier in Santa Clara, or if finish second and they will play the runner-up of Group G in Arlington, Texas.  

To Reach Round of 16 - Turkey @ 11/102.11

Turkey should aim for the round of 16 and could even go a little further (did reach semifinals in 2002) should their stars deliver consistently. Çalhanoğlu, Güler and Yıldız are formidable creative, attacking trio.

Tournament Lowest Scoring Group - Group D @ 7/24.50

This selection is joint fav in this market alongside Group A. Paraguay are a low-conceding, low scoring team. They keep the game tight with a compact defence and score on the break. Likewise, Australia are likely to set up in a compact, defence-first structure and rely on counter-attacks rather than open play, which points towards low-scoring matches in their group.

Our new Bet Builder Outrights proposition means you can combine these 3 legs for an interesting price of around 19/120.00.

*Note also, if there is a tie in the Lowest Scoring Group then all ties are settled as winners.

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