We've reached the last eight of the Women's World Cup, and after making a significant profit from the round of 16, Kevin Hatchard looks ahead to Friday's matches.
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Spain hammered by Japan in group stage
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Spain went into this tournament as one of the favourites, but their 4-0 hammering at the hands of Japan in their final group game rang alarm bells, and even a superb win over a strangely lethargic Switzerland doesn't mean they are ready to step up against the Netherlands.
Coach Jorge Vilda hasn't yet shown he can get the best out of a talented group of players on a regular basis, and his failure to adapt to Japan's swift counter-attacks in that 4-0 loss was a big concern.
Luckily for Vilda, Barcelona midfielder Aitana Bonmati is in terrific form, and there are plenty of quality attacking options like Jenni Hermoso, Alba Redondo, Salma Paralluelo and Esther Gonzalez.
It is in defence where the biggest concern is. Spain really miss centre-back Mapi Leon, who has refused to play for her country while Vilda is still in charge. There have been a few sloppy moments, even in big wins, and the Dutch can punish mistakes if they arise.
The Netherlands were fortunate not to concede a goal against South Africa in the last 16, as they managed a 2-0 win. However, Andries Jonker's side topped their group, holding the USA to a 1-1 draw along the way.
Wing-back Esmee Brugts has been excellent, Lineth Beerensteyn is a real presence in attack, and Jill Roord has been scoring consistently from midfield. Even without the injured Vivianne Miedema, this is a team that packs an attacking punch.
It's worth remembering that while Spain don't have an established track record when it comes to knockout football, the Netherlands certainly do. They won the Euros in 2017 on home soil under now-England coach Sarina Wiegman, and they reached the final of the last World Cup, losing to the USA. Seven of the players who started for the Dutch in that World Cup final started the last-16 win over South Africa, so this is a group with a lot of experience.
I'm really quite staggered that Spain are 1.9720/21 to win this quarter-final inside 90 minutes, and I'm more than happy to lay them. However, you can also go for a bigger price and back the Dutch to qualify at 2.9215/8.
Both Japan and Sweden knocked out big hitters in the last 16, and go into this quarter-final on a high. Japan's 3-1 win over Norway was impressive in its simplicity, as the Nadeshiko's co-ordinated attacking play proved too much to handle for a talented but completely disjointed Norwegian side.
Livewire midfielder Hinata Miyazawa grabbed the all-important third goal to wrap up the win with a typical surge in behind the defensive line - the Mynavi Sendai star has been one of the outstanding players of the tournament so far. Jun Endo pulls the strings superbly in midfield, while Manchester City's Yu Hasegawa is a solid base in the middle of the park.
Sweden progressed in a completely different way, as a gritty rearguard action saw them grimly hang on for a 0-0 draw against tournament favourites the USA, before knocking them out on penalties.
Chelsea goalkeeper Zecira Musovic was on incredible form, making 11 saves in a virtuoso display. I'm convinced that some of the USA players missed their spot-kicks because they were spooked by Musovic's performance, and were trying to find the corners.
However, the truth we can't ignore is that Sweden were completely outplayed over the 120 minutes, and we barely saw the attacking quality of Kosovare Asllani, Fridolina Rolfo and Stina Blackstenius. That was a Herculean effort to hold on against the USWNT, and against a bright and fresh Japan I think the Swedes will struggle to replicate that defensive performance.
I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back Japan to qualify and Hasegawa to score at combined odds of 4.216/5.
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