Women's World Cup Final: How Betfair Exchange punters can win on penalties

• Pens can mean profit for Betfair traders

• Understand penalties stats and patterns

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As we approach the latter stages of knockout tournaments, the focus on the drama and unpredictability of penalty kicks intensifies. These crucial moments have become a significant point of interest not only for fans but also for those trading on the Betfair Exchange.

I've analysed every penalty in the Premier League and at the Women's World Cup to get into the detail. But before we look at penalty shootouts, let's understand a bit about penalties from open play.

When do penalties occur?

Penalties occur 'naturally' at a rate of about 20-25% in a standard match. But, as always, you find patterns when you dig around a bit.

Low-scoring matches between teams with good disciplinary records produce the fewest penalties. A match ending 0-0 has a penalty less than 5% of the time. But a high-scoring game with a red card can hit over a 50% chance of a penalty.

High-scoring matches between teams known for their poor disciplinary records are hotbeds for these game-changing penalties. More aggressive and attacking play lead to more fouls and, subsequently, more chances for a penalty.

How often are penalties missed?

The sheer pressure and expectation that comes with taking a penalty are immense. Yet, the statistics are comforting for the kicker. Roughly 75% of penalties find the back of the net.

Interestingly, data reveals over the years that goalkeepers are gradually improving at thwarting spot-kicks. In the '90s, Premier League penalty takers would score 90-95% of the time, but it's declined steadily since.

This trend isn't just about players' agility or intuition. The availability of detailed player statistics has meant goalkeepers are better informed about opponents. Knowing a player's penalty taking tendencies can provide a crucial edge for the keeper.

Where should players shoot?

Most players have a preferred spot. But where is the statistically 'perfect' place to strike? The answer: the top corners. Shots aimed high and nestled into the corners are notoriously difficult for goalkeepers to reach.

Yet this level of precision requires nerve and skill. While the top corners are prime targets, players often choose the lower corners for a safer bet.

An intriguing tidbit from the men's World Cup shootout data reveals a goalkeeper's psychological challenge. To dive or not to dive?

Goalkeepers often feel the need to make a move, to do something. That allows players to smash a well-placed shot straight down the middle. But more goals were scored in shootouts by blasting the ball down the centre at the World Cup in Qatar.

Shootout is different ball game

Penalty shootouts are a different beast altogether. The stakes are higher, the pressure mounts and every single shot counts. I looked at data from 345 penalties during men's World Cup shootouts.

Psychological aspects play a significant role. If you watch how players take a penalty, it can help you understand what is going on in their minds.

Players who take a penalty quickly after the whistle is blown don't feel in control. When players do this, they score less often than players who attempt to gain some composure. It's an excellent way to read their mind.

A penalty is 'easier' to score earlier in the shootout. As the tension mounts during the shootout, the chance of scoring declines.

The team that shoots first often has a slight edge. Once they score, it places enormous pressure on the next player from the opposing side. This 'ABAB' format has its critics, with many suggesting a switch to the 'ABBA' format to balance the odds.

Trading penalty shootouts

Regardless of what I've done in the underlying match, I enjoy penalty shootouts as they present some excellent trading opportunities.

The critical thing to understand is that the market should start a shootout at a 50/50 chance for either team or odds of 2.01/1. Those odds will move to favour the first penalty taken when the coin is tossed.

From there, whoever takes the first penalty and scores will see their odds shorten and only lengthen again when their opponent scores.

If we look at the midweek super cup match between Man City and Sevilla. Man City won the toss and took the first penalty which pushed their price into 1.865/6. When the ball hit the back of the net their odds dropped to 1.774/5.

Each successful City penalty from that point onwards saw the odds shorten further, before reverting when their opponents scored.

Backing City with a fixed stake before each penalty and trading out would have made £83 for each £100 staked with no risk when Sevilla stepped up to take their penalty.

Sevilla missed their must-score penalty at 5-4. But even backing them in the same manner as City would have only yielded a slight loss, even with that critical miss.

Or course, there is a chance of a miss at any point in the shootout, and complications arise from this, especially as the shootout continues. So if you choose to play this strategy, you need to think longer term and measure your success over many shootouts, not just one.

Penalties are a blend of art and science. While the players' skill, nerve, and technique are paramount, understanding the underlying statistics and psychology can give punters a distinct advantage.

For Betfair traders, harnessing this data and adapting strategies can turn penalties into profit.

As for Sunday? I hope England gets the first chance if the match goes to penalties.

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