Tuesday Football Tips: Go low on cards in FA Cup replay

• Ref shown under 2.5 cards in 19 of last 24 FA Cup ties

• Under 2.5 cards in 8 of last 10 between these sides

• 5/4 and 17/1 bet suggestions for Wolves v Liverpool

Wolves v Liverpool

With the FA Cup returning to our screens on Tuesday, it's time to go back to the go-low-on-cards theory.

It worked well on third-round weekend, delivering this column a 6/1 winner, while only a 90th-minute card denied us a 30/1 haul too.

Basically, the FA Cup has a long-standing lower average card count than the Premier League and EFL competitions and it can pay to look for games where advantage of this fact can be taken.

A referee who is already lenient in the league is ideal and we've got a decent one for this game in Andre Marriner, who has traditionally been one of the lower carders in the Premier League.

Admittedly his average is up this season - to 3.86 per game - but that's across just seven matches.

Look back over the previous five seasons and his yellow-card figures have always been below the league average - 3.22, 2.36, 2.42, 2.7, 2.67.

And it's his FA Cup figures which really get the interest going here - over the past decade, 19 of his 24 FA Cup ties have seen under 2.5 cards.

That's a 5/4 shot here.

The history of this fixture is also highly encouraging.

There was just one card in the original game, a 2-2 draw at Anfield, which continued a low-cards trend.

Eight of the 10 games between the pair since Wolves returned to the top flight have now landed the under 2.5 cards bet.

It has to be backed.

I'm also prepared to take a long shot on there being no cards at all.

Three of Marriner's last 10 FA Cup games have landed this, as did both of his Carabao Cup matches this season, one of which involved Wolves.

Using the Bet Builder feature and backing each side for under 0.5 cards you can squeeze the price about no cards up to almost 17/1.

The suggestion is half the stake on each bet - that way if the 5/4 lands we'll still make a small profit, regardless of the outcome of bet two.

Read Dan Fitch's midweek FA Cup preview!