Wales v Croatia Tips: Value lies with Moore and Mepham

• Moore carded in 9 of 21 competitive international starts

• Mepham 2+ fouls in 8 of last 10 starts for Wales

• Back Bet Builder double at 9/1

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Wales v Croatia
Sunday 15 October, 19:45
Live on Viaplay Sports 1 and S4C

We'd all like to finish the week with a big-priced winner, so let's give it a try and double up two value picks in Wales' crunch clash with Croatia.

It's pretty much must-win now for the Welsh given earlier slip-ups in the group, notably a 4-2 home loss to Armenia.

They'll be buoyed by their opponents have a raft of injuries, particularly in forward areas, with the likes of Ivan Perisic, Mislav Orsic and Anrej Kramaric all absent.

Leg 1: Kieffer Moore to be shown a card

Wales warmed up for this one by hitting four past Gibraltar on Wednesday, a game which saw centre forward Kieffer Moore score twice before being replaced at half time.

That was surely with this match in mind and he is set to start.

Moore has been the punter's pal in the player-card market throughout his international career and he's now been carded in nine of his 21 competitive starts for his country. He also has another three cards when coming on as sub.

The main reason behind that statistic is Moore is all arms and elbows in the many aerial challenges he makes and that's often frowned upon by international referees - certainly more than those in the Premier Lague or EFL.

Italy's Davide Massa is the man with the whistle here and he's averaging close to six cards per game across all competitions this season, so I think 10/34.33 about another card for Moore is a little on the large side.

Leg 2: Chris Mepham 2+ fouls

Another price which stands out is the 13/102.30 on offer about Chris Mepham committing 2+ fouls.

The Bournemouth defender has been declared fit to play and he's a regular in Rob Page's back three.

Mepham has landed this bet in eight of his last 10 international starts, while his only Premier League start for his club this season saw him commit three fouls.

Clearly, given his lack of game time, he could well be a little rusty so a mis-timed tackle of two would hardly be a surprise.

Follow the data and back him in this market.

Put the two picks together into a Bet Builder and you get a price north of 9/110.00. That looks decent.

• Back Moore to be shown a card & Mepham 2+ fouls @ around 9/110.00

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