Corinthians v Flamengo
Tuesday 2 August (01:30 Wed, BST)
It was good to get the week off to a strong start with a winner at north of 4/1 - let's see if we can add to the betting bank on Tuesday.
Two Brazilian giants go head to head in the first leg of a Copa Libertadores quarter-final but it would be unwise to expect a classic.
These two famous names are both enjoying strong seasons, reaching this stage of South America's equivalent to the Champions League, while they also currently sit in the top five domestically where Corinthians are pushing leaders Palmeiras hard.
It is the sides' defensive record which stands out when you look at that Serie A table - both have conceded only 19 goals in 20 games and backing under 2.5 goals in the first leg of a tie that looks set to be very closely fought makes solid sense.
The last two meetings between the teams have both ended 1-0, while when they met over two legs in the Copa do Brasil in both 2019 and 2018, the first-leg results were 1-0 and 0-0 respectively.
Shots bets don't appeal - those strong defensive stats are backed up by the shots data with neither side impressing on that metric. Indeed, despite their lofty position, Corinthians have had fewer shots than every Serie A side, while only two have conceded fewer than Flamengo.
Instead it's to the card markets we turn in order to find a decent-priced Bet Builder.
Referee Patricio Loustau has averaged more than six cards per game across his eight Copa Libertadores games this season which immediately makes over 5.5 cards here appeal.
In Argentina, he's produced six or more in his last five matches and six of his last seven.
Remember these are two old rivals and there's a huge amount at stake as we get towards the business end of the tournament.
Corinthians have received 22 yellows and one red in their eight Copa games so far, while it's 22 yellows for Flamengo too.
Basically they are 'carding' almost bang on what's required here so let's try over 5.5 cards and under 2.5 goals, a bet which pays out at 21/10.
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