France v Netherlands: Back Les Bleus to down the Dutch

• Les Bleus did double over Dutch in qualifying
  

• France won 9/11 meaningful group games under Deschamps
  

• Back France to take three points
  

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Netherlands v France
Friday 20:00 (Live on BBC One)

In Gelsenkirchen last night, Spain got the win, but they also got the clean sheet, as they beat Italy 1-0.

We're in Leipzig for the Friday night game between France and the Netherlands. The buildup's been dominated by Kylian Mbappe's broken nose, and it's still not clear what part if any the newly minted galactico will play.

These were also drawn in the same qualifying group for this tournament. France won twice (4-0, 2-1) and Mbappe bagged a brace in both matches. If he starts and looks at full strength, he's one to get involved with in-play in the scoring markets.

If Mbappe is on the bench, France still look worthy favourites to win this one. Since Didier Deschamps took charge of Les Bleus in time for the 2014 World Cup, the French have taken all three points in 9/11 major-tournament group matches in which they haven't already qualified for the next round. Monday's 1-0 victory over Austria wasn't the most impressive of those performances, but it suggested Deschamps men can still get the job done in these matches.

The Dutch bring more individual talent into this match than Austria could muster, but question marks still surround Ronald Koeman's men. The squad is loaded with excellent defenders (Van Dijk, Ake, Van de Ven) but the Oranje still conceded to a Poland side missing Robert Lewandowski.

At the other end, Gakpo, Depay and the marauding Dumfries can clearly create chances, but they were profligate with them against Poland. They are likely to get fewer chances against a stronger French backline that now looks well protected by N'Golo Kante once more. If they are wasteful again, they will struggle to match the output of Griezmann, Dembele, Thuram and perhaps their old tormentor Mbappe.

It's a decade since the Dutch beat a big team in a big game at a big tournament (a 5-1 revenge thrashing of Spain at Brazil 2014). We don't think Deschamps will let them end their wait this evening.

Now read James Eastham's Poland v Austria Euro 2024 match preview here!