Football Bet of the Day: Dangerous Danes can avoid defeat

• Sweden unbeaten in UWNL, but only won two of five

• Denmark have won in Italy and Wales

• Hosts too short in game they only need to draw

Sweden (W) v Denmark (W)
Tuesday 03 June, 18:30

Pescara gave us a perfect start to the week last night, as their hard-fought 1-0 win at Ternana in the Serie C playoffs gave us a winner at a shade under evens. We'll switch to the Women's Nations League now, because Sweden are facing regional rivals Denmark, and I think the hosts are too short a price to take the win.

This is the climax of the Nations League group stage. Sweden and Denmark are currently locked together on nine points, but Sweden have a better head-to-head after a 2-1 win in Denmark and they boast a superior goal difference. That said, Peter Gerhardsson's team haven't impressed in this tournament so far, with only two wins from five games.

Sweden have drawn twice with Wales and once with Italy, and another draw here would send them through to the semi-finals, so it's worth remembering that this is a game the Swedes don't need to win. Opponents Denmark won in Italy and in Wales, and in Bayern Munich forward Pernille Harder they have a star in attack. Harder scored 14 goals in Bayern's Frauen Bundesliga title success, and the 32-year-old has 78 internationals goals.

Sweden have historically had the upper hand against Denmark, but I just think 1.564/7 is too short for the Swedes to win a match they don't actually need three points from, and they'll be wary of a Danish team that have looked good recently on the road. I'll lay the home side.

Now read our other Bets of the Day here!